Orbán wins crushing victory

Viktor Orbán’s centre-right Fidesz party has won a decisive victory in parliamentary elections in Hungary, and it will retain a constitutional majority in parliament if projections in the five remaining constituencies are confirmed.

The election also transformed the third-placed party, Jobbik, into the strongest far-right party in the European Union. Jobbik won 20.5% of the popular vote and could have 23 seats in the 199-member parliament.

A left-of-centre alliance, the five-party Unity Alliance, secured 26.0% of the vote and 38 seats. A green-liberal party, Politics Can Be Different (LMP), just managed to clear the 5% hurdle needed to gain representation in parliament. It will have five seats.

The victory gives Orbán a third term as prime minister. Orbán, who co-founded Fidesz in 1988, led Hungary from 1998 to 2002, before returning to power in 2010 by ending a period of left-wing rule.

Orbán framed his victory as both an endorsement of his policies, which he claimed has “transformed Hungary…from a battered, sluggish old banger with a flat tyre…into a reliable, fast and bold racing car”, and as continued indictment of the left’s performance in the 2000s.

“The left had eight years to show what they can do, and they showed us all right,” he said shortly before voters went to the polls.

After the vote, he said: “We have scored such a comprehensive victory, the significance of which we cannot yet fully grasp tonight.”

Orbán’s sweeping victory will enable him to push forward a ten-point economic manifesto that emphasises “re-industrialisation”, an “opening to the East”, a partial Magyarisation of the banking sector, small farm-holdings, lighter corporate taxation, cheap energy and full employment.

Attila Mesterházy, the leader of the Unity Alliance, refused to congratulate Orbán, arguing that the constitutional changes introduced by Orbán meant that the country was no longer free.

As well as slashing the size of party, re-drawing constituencies and reducing the size of parliament, the constitutional changes changed campaign rules in ways that the opposition believes favoured Fidesz. The changes also expanded the electorate, by giving the vote to Hungarians who live in countries – such as Romania – that allow their Hungarian minorities dual citizenship.

In an interim report, published on 24 March, election observers from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) wrote that the constitution had been overhauled “without public consultation or inclusive dialogue with the opposition” and stated that “current regulations result in a de facto absence of campaign advertisements on commercial television”.

Orbán’s retention of a constitutional majority came despite a sizeable fall in Fidesz’s support after four tumultuous years, in which Hungary has had to answer numerous questions from the European Commission on issues ranging from treatment of investors to a set of questions related to the constitutional changes. In 2010, 52.7% of the vote gave it 236 seats in a 386-member parliament, giving Orbán enough seats to re-write the constitution and overhaul the electoral system, including radically reducing the size of parliament. Yesterday’s vote – 44.5% – gave Fidesz 133 seats out of 199.

Fidesz won in 90% of constituencies – 96 of 106 seats – and gained 37 of the 96 seats allocated based on party lists.

An average of pre-election polls indicate that Jobbik gained most from late votes, rising from 16.7% to 20.5% in an election marked by a decline in voter interest. Turnout fell from 64.4% in 2010 to 60.2%.