Taiwan’s Independence Movement Likely to Wane

TAIPEI, Taiwan — No matter who wins Taiwan’s fiercely contested presidential election on March 22, the fervent independence movement that has so agitated relations with mainland China in recent years seems destined to suffer a significant setback.

Both candidates, Ma Ying-jeou and Frank Hsieh, want closer ties with Beijing, differing only in how quickly and to what degree they would strengthen relations. By calling for closer economic cooperation with China and rejecting any notions of separatism, they are repudiating the tough nationalist policies of the departing president, Chen Shui-bian, whose confrontational stance has angered officials in Beijing and Washington and has stirred anxiety among many Taiwanese.

“Both sides will try to seek common ground and seek engagement across the straits,” said Philip Yang, a political scientist at National Taiwan University who has advised the Ma campaign. “If Ma is elected, the pace will be faster, and with bigger expectations.”

Mr. Ma, a Harvard-educated lawyer, is favored in polls and by political commentators to beat Mr. Hsieh, who is from the Democratic Progressive Party, or D.P.P., of Mr. Chen and is campaigning in his shadow.

Mr. Ma’s party, the Kuomintang, governed Taiwan for 51 years, often with an iron grip, before Mr. Chen was elected in 2000. The Kuomintang’s revival this year is rooted in widespread disenchantment with Mr. Chen, whose party took power on a wave of optimism.

Mr. Chen initially tapped a vein of support among many Taiwanese for steps to promote Taiwan’s separate identity. Those feelings ran especially deep among people whose families had lived in Taiwan for generations and did not have close political ties to mainland China. Many Taiwanese also hoped that Mr. Chen would end the corruption and authoritarianism associated with the Kuomintang.

Instead, Mr. Chen has been mired in corruption scandals involving close relatives. Also, his tireless efforts to promote independence created constant tension with the mainland and led to disagreements with the United States, which has helped guarantee Taiwan’s security but has discouraged unilateral steps by either side to change the island’s political status.

In the end, Mr. Chen alienated people in the broad center of the electorate who say they support the status quo and who depend on strengthening economic ties across the Taiwan Strait. As he finishes his second term, his popularity ratings are in the 20s.

Despite his troubles, he has prepared a parting shot: a nonbinding referendum on March 22 that asks Taiwanese whether they want to apply for the United Nations under the name Taiwan rather than the island’s formal name, the Republic of China. Taiwan left the United Nations in 1971 when the General Assembly recognized the Communists as China’s legitimate government.

Mr. Ma, in trying to establish himself as a centrist voice, has criticized the referendum and other government policies aimed at stoking nationalist sentiments. “The D.P.P.’s drive toward de jure independence led only to Taiwan’s internal decay and international isolation,” Mr. Ma, 57, said at a recent news conference. “It is therefore high time for both Taiwan and the mainland to revert to what I call the three noes: no talks on reunification during my term of office, no pursuit of de jure independence and no use of force by either side.”

Many of the policies proposed by Mr. Ma and Mr. Hsieh, 61, are similar, though Mr. Ma appears more willing to engage directly with Beijing. Mr. Ma has said he will increase the number of charter flights across the straits and explore opening up commercial flights, all to spur the economy, which voters see as a major issue. He has also said he supports increasing tourism in Taiwan from the mainland and lifting many government limits on cross-straits investment.

Mr. Ma said he would ensure that the defense budget was equal to at least 3 percent of Taiwan’s gross domestic product. The military needs “to be strong enough to deter an initial attack from the mainland,” he said.

Since campaigning began in earnest, Mr. Ma has been dogged by issues of character, with Mr. Hsieh relentlessly questioning him on having received United States permanent residency. Critics of Mr. Hsieh, also a lawyer, say raising the character issue is a sign of his desperation, as his party tries to battle back from a painful defeat in legislative elections in January. The vote, in which the Kuomintang won almost three-quarters of 113 parliamentary seats, was generally seen as a referendum on Mr. Chen’s leadership.

“We’re operating against the tide,” said Hsiao Bi-khim, a former legislator and a spokeswoman for Mr. Hsieh, who has declined to meet with foreign journalists. “Our defeat in the parliamentary elections on the one hand has brought our party spirits to a low point, but has also brought on a sense of urgency.”

To distance himself from Mr. Chen, Mr. Hsieh has called for maintaining the status quo, rather than pushing for independence, and has proposed allowing direct Chinese investment in Taiwan and lifting limits on Taiwanese investment in China. He has also said little about the United Nations referendum, although many party members continue to say it is important.

“We see China as a giant with its hands around our neck, trying to suffocate us, trying to shut off our space on the international stage,” Ms. Hsiao said. The referendum, she added, “is an expression of the desire of the Taiwanese people for its space, to be part of the international community, to join international organizations. It’s not about declaring independence. It’s not about changing the legal status of Taiwan.”

Nevertheless, American officials continue to warn Taiwan not to provoke China. In Beijing on Feb. 26, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said, “this referendum is not going to help anyone, and, in fact, it shouldn’t be held.”

Shelley Rigger, a professor of political science at Davidson College in North Carolina, who wrote a book about the D.P.P., said that because of Mr. Chen’s policies, “U.S.-Taiwan relations are about as bad as they’ve ever been.”

“The U.S. is very eager for the new administration to take office because there’s considerable concern in Washington that Chen Shui-bian could still destabilize matters even before inauguration,” she added.

In Mr. Chen’s tenure, the government, besides pushing for controversial foreign policies, also carried out domestic policies centered on Taiwanese nationalism, such as promoting a Taiwanese dialect.