An update shared by the party this morning said that Gandapur was ready with his convoy to restart the march.

PTI leader Shaukat Yousafzai, while speaking to Dawn.com from Burhan Interchange in Attock, said that the convoys had departed for Islamabad but were moving slowly due to their size as well as the presence of barriers. He claimed that the police had retreated after seeing the “huge rally”.

Yousufzai reiterated that KP CM Gandapur intended to reach D-Chowk “peacefully but at any cost”.

The procession was on the motorway near Burhan, Attock, he said.

Meanwhile, Punjab Information Minister Azma Bukhari questioned how PTI planned to have Imran released through their protest.

While speaking to the media in Lahore, Azma said that around 80 people had died in Kurram over the last four days, however, the KP CM wanted to “attack the capital” for the release of his party leader.

She said that around 80 people were arrested during the protest across Punjab including Lahore on Sunday.

“In this ‘final call’ […] I don’t think there will be a bigger disappointment than this,” she said.

The protest, which the government is determined to foil with force, was originally scheduled to be staged on Nov 24, but the convoys took a breather last night after PTI leaders said they were in “no hurry” to reach the federal capital for their ‘do or die’ protest, as workers and supporters from across the country attempted to defy arrests, baton charges and tear gas to participate in the agitation.

The Islamabad High Court (IHC) last week ruled that PTI’s planned protest is unlawful and directed the federal government to take all necessary measures to maintain law and order in Islamabad without disrupting public life, particularly as the Belarusian president is scheduled to arrive today in the capital for a three-day official visit.

The PTI protesters, coming mainly from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, were still quite away from Islamabad until late Sunday night. The party and police officials expect the caravan of supporters from KP to enter the federal capital by Tuesday or Wednesday.

In Punjab and Islamabad, PTI leaders failed to mobilise the workers effectively as the police swiftly thwarted their attempts to hold gatherings.

Security personnel used batons and tear gas before rounding up scores of people in several cities.

PTI leader Asad Qaiser told Dawn that caravans of protesters marching towards Islamabad “from across the country” would still take a few days to reach Islamabad.

“The rally coming from Peshawar to Islamabad is spread over 14 kilometres,” he claimed, adding that similar numbers would be arriving from D.I. Khan, Abbottabad, Balochistan and other areas.

Although rallies have entered Punjab, “we have instructed our workers that we are not in a hurry to reach Islamabad,” Mr Qaiser told Dawn.

“[O]ur destination is Islamabad but we can take a day or two to reach there and let the government machinery remain panicked.”

Police officials, while citing intelligence reports, said PTI’s caravan coming from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa was likely to stay in or near Swabi on Sunday and continue its march on Monday, reaching Attock on the Punjab-KP border by the day’s end. They are then likely to move towards Islamabad on Tuesday, sources claimed.

According to journalists, the caravan from KP had halted at Ghazi Barotha, short of Attock, on Sunday night. However, many groups of PTI activists defied police expectations and entered Punjab via different highways late on Sunday.

Groups from various parts of KP, such as the Peshawar and Malakand regions, entered Punjab from various thoroughfares after circumventing roadblocks on major arteries.

Another group of protesters from southern KP was en route via the Hakla-Dera Ismail Khan Motorway, while the procession from the Hazara region used the Hazara Expressway to enter Punjab.

Bushra Bibi, the spouse of PTI founder Imran Khan, was also part of the convoy coming from Peshawar.

In a brief speech near the Swabi Interchange, Mr Gandapur urged the workers to “utilise all their energy” to remove hurdles on their way towards their destination — D-Chowk in Islamabad.

The main procession was also joined by protesters from Dera Ismail Khan, led by Mr Gandapur’s brother Umar Amin; Balochistan, led by Salar Khan Kakar; Tank; and South Waziristan.

The protesters had their first face-off with Punjab police near Attock. As police fired tear gas, they pelted stones and set fire to a toll booth and a van.

The skirmishes continued till the filing of this report, in the early hours of Monday.

KP CM’s Special Assistant on Communication and Works Mohammad Sohail Afridi, while speaking to Dawn.com, said that police had initially only blocked the roads by placing containers, but have since been “hiding inside bushes and pelting stones on vehicles”.

Govt fully prepared to foil ‘onslaught’ on capital

As PTI supporters from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab and other parts of the country marched towards the capital, the government struck an aggressive note, saying that anyone trying to enter the city despite the unprecedented security arrangements and blockades in place would face the music.

Government functionaries have termed the PTI power show a ‘well-thought out conspiracy’, as it coincides with yet another foreign dignitary’s visit; the arrival of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. The Belarusian president is due in Islamabad today.

Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi, who received an advance delegation from Belarus on Sunday, vowed that all protesters trying to enter the federal capital will be taken into custody.

Authorities have sealed off Islamabad’s Red Zone, which houses key government buildings, and secured the Diplomatic Enclave, he said.

Addressing a press conference on Sunday, Mr Naqvi said that the security measures were put in place to protect residents of the capital and their property, blaming the PTI for inconveniencing thousands of people.

He said that the situation for the protest was much better than last time, adding that mobile services were working in the capital and only the internet was inaccessible.

According to Downdetector, an internet outage tracking website, several websites reported outages early today.

The tracking website received 52 reports on the outage of WhatsApp while 102 reports were received for Instagram.

Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar also questioned the PTI’s repeated calls for strikes, terming them a “well-thought out conspiracy” against the country.

In a statement on Sunday, he regretted the party always seemed to call for a protest at a time when global figures were visiting Pakistan, whether it be the Chinese premier’s visit, the SCO summit or other occasion.

PTI brings ‘industrial fans’ to fight off tear gas

The Khyber Pakhtunkhwa chapter of PTI has brought huge industrial fans — similar to those used in paramotoring — besides employing other gadgets to protect the participants from the effects of teargas shelling.

The large fans, transported on a truck, are being probably used for the first time in a political march in Pakistan.

The PTI’s social media head in KP, Ikram Khattana, while talking to Dawn said the fans had been locally manufactured for their planned protest march towards Islamabad.

“There are six such fans which are part of the convoy taken out from Peshawar,” Mr Khattana said, adding that electricity generators had been arranged to operate these fans.

The benchmark KSE-100 index climbed 621.85 points, or 0.64 per cent, to stand at 98,420.08 from the previous close of 97,798.23 points at 12:45pm.

Mohammed Sohail, chief executive of Topline Securities, said that that the market was rallying on “unconfirmed speculation” that the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) “may give relaxation to banks on minimum deposit rates [MDR] for savers”.

While Yousuf M. Farooq, director research at Chase Securities, said, “A rally in banking stocks, driven by rumors of the removal of ADR [advance-to-deposit ratio] tax and changes in MDR , has led to strong market performance today, even as investors remain cautious in other sectors.”

“Bank Al Habib, Meezan Bank, Bank Alfalah, and MCB are leading the surge,” he observed, adding that this was due to “consistent fund inflows into the equity market, as individuals and institutions shift from fixed-income investments to equities amid declining yields”.

Farooq noted that despite jitters, the market appeared to have largely ignored political noise.

“We advise retail investors to focus on long-term investment strategies, avoiding short-term market movements,” he recommended. “A disciplined approach of saving and investing small amounts regularly in a diversified portfolio, while keeping liquidity needs in mind, remains a prudent strategy.”

Awais Ashraf, director research at AKD Securities, said, “Inflows from institutions, driven by declining fixed-income yields, have sustained the index’s upward momentum, offsetting the negative impact of the ongoing political situation.”

“Additionally, commercial banks expected to be exempt from ADR taxation have positively influenced today’s index performance,” he highlighted.

More to follow.

The cases were registered with Sadar Gujranwala, Civil Lines and Gakhar Mandi police stations of the district on the complaints of various citizens. Two cases were lodged on Saturday last.

However, in the fresh case registered with the Gakhar Mandi police station on Sunday, complainant Mohammad Saeed Butt of Sultan Pura locality in Gakhar Mandi, alleged that he had been sitting at a restaurant where a statement of Bushra Bibi was aired in which she had accused Saudi Arabia of deviating from Sharia law thus causing an irreparable damage to relations between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.

The case was registered under Sections 295A, 298, 153, 126 of Pakistan Penal Code and Prevention of Electronic Crimes Act, 2016.

An identical case was registered by Okara police.

Earlier, three cases were registered against Bushra Bibi at different police stations of Dera Ghazi Khan, Rajanpur and Layyah for her remarks against the Saudi leadership.

Published in Dawn, November 25th, 2024

The move is part of a four-pronged strategy to reduce the current Rs9 trillion development portfolio under the $7 billion Extended Fund Facility.

Sources told Dawn that a meeting presided over by Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal last week consolidated a way forward based on PSDP, which, if not corrected, would take more than 14 years to complete at the current pace of implementation.

It was agreed that the IMF-mandated conditions should be a starting point that required a “one-time review of all technically approved projects to reduce the set of active projects to high-priority projects that can be completed in a timely manner”.

Plans to hold quarterly instead of half-yearly reviews to meet IMF requirements

The meeting also decided to make it mandatory to hold quarterly reviews, instead of half-yearly reviews, of this year’s PSDP and formulate a strategy to induct new projects in the coming fiscal year that serve the current government’s priorities.

Report on outcome of PSDP reviews

The government is required under the IMF programme to produce a report on the outcome of the PSDP review.

The meeting was informed that 1,071 development projects were part of the federal PSDP for the current year, of which only 105 projects were nearing completion with 80pc or higher physical progress and had been allocated just Rs37bn during the current year.

About 85 foreign-funded projects totalling Rs260bn were part of the current year’s portfolio.

The meeting noted that based on demand from various ministries and agencies, the current year’s PSDP needed Rs2.053tr but was allocated Rs1.4tr in the budget and later reduced to Rs1.1tr to meet IMF requirements.

The demand for the next fiscal year (2025-26) was put at Rs2.1tr, followed by Rs1.5tr in fiscal year 2027.

It was reported that the pace of spending during the current year had been very slow in the first five months and only nine ministries had a funding utilisation of 11pc to 18pc while six other ministries were able to spend more than 5pc of their annual allocation.

Zero spending in five months The remaining 27 ministries or divisions had an expenditure level of less than 5pc, including 10 of them having zero spending in the first five months.

The PSDP utilisation as of Nov 20 has been reported at just Rs92bn, or 8pc of the revised budget allocation of Rs1.1tr, down from Rs1.4tr, as part of the IMF agreement. The Rs92bn utilisation accounts for 6.6pc of the budget allocation or 8.4pc of the revised PSDP cap.

Under the mechanism announced by the Ministry of Finance for the current fiscal year, the government should release 15pc of the budgeted allocation in the first quarter, followed by 20pc in the second quarter, 25pc in the third quarter and the remaining 40pc in the last quarter of the fiscal year.

As such, the estimated release for the PSDP up to Nov 20 should be around 26pc of the annual allocation or no less than Rs290bn.

This year’s utilisation is also significantly lower than last year’s Rs117bn, or around 13pc of Rs940bn annual allocation, despite the tight fiscal position and strict stabilisation programme in place.

Under the IMF programme, the Planning Commission has set matrix-based principles for identifying and financing future development projects. This included that all projects should demonstrate robust economic and financial rationale, given the current balance of payments challenges and there would be “a mechanism to reduce financial burdens and ensure practical implementation”.

Criteria for project selection

The IMF had set a structural benchmark for January 2025, requiring the government to develop and publish “criteria for project selection, including an annual limit on the total size of new projects entering the PSDP portfolio”.

The IMF instructed the government to undertake serious public financial management reforms to strengthen budgetary discipline, enhance transparency, build confidence in budgetary spending and improve PSDP management.

Key measures to improve the budget process, according to the Fund’s demands, include producing and publishing quarterly reports comparing budget projections with actual execution.

In this regard, the IMF suggested measures to enhance the PSDP portfolio management by “conducting a one-time review to prioritise and rationalise ongoing and approved PSDP projects and integrating the current expenditures associated with new projects into the decision-making process”.

Published in Dawn, November 25th, 2024

In one particularly egregious example, a photo of an autistic women relieving herself in the forest was shared by local men on social media, prompting villagers to destroy nearby camera traps.

Trishant Simlai, a researcher at the UK’s Cambridge University, spent 14 months interviewing some 270 people who live near the Corbett Tiger Reserve in northern India.

For women living in villages around the reserve, the forest has long been a space for “freedom and expression” away from the men in a “heavily conservative and patriarchal society”, Simlai told AFP.

The women sing, talk about taboo subjects such as sex, and sometimes drink and smoke while collecting firewood and grass from the forest.

But the introduction of camera traps, drones and sound recorders as part of efforts to track and protect tigers and other wildlife has extended “the male gaze of the society into the forest”, Simlai said.

On multiple occasions, drones were deliberately flown over the heads of women, forcing them to drop their firewood and flee for cover, according to a study led by Simlai published in the journal Environment and Planning.

‘We are afraid’

“We cannot walk in front of the cameras or sit in the area with our Kurtis (tunics) above our knees. We are afraid that we might get photographed or recorded in a wrong way,” a local woman was quoted in the study saying.

A forest ranger told the researchers that when a camera trap took a photo of a couple engaging in “romance” in the forest, “we immediately reported it to the police”.

In perhaps the most troubling example, a photo of an autistic woman from a marginalised caste relieving herself in the forest was inadvertently taken by a camera trap in 2017.

Young men appointed as temporary forest workers shared the photo on local Whatsapp and Facebook groups to “shame the woman”, Simlai said.

“We broke and set fire to every camera trap we could find after the daughter of our village was humiliated in such a brazen way,” one local told the researchers.

Aiming to avoid the cameras, some women have started roaming farther into the forest, which has the highest density of tigers in the world.

The women also sing less than they used to, which was used to deter animal attacks.

One local woman — who spoke about fear of cameras forcing her into “unfamiliar spaces” in 2019 — was killed by a tiger earlier this year, Simlai said.

‘New ways to harass women’

Another woman took advantage of the constant surveillance.

“Whenever her husband would beat her, she would run in front of the camera so that her husband did not follow her,” Simlai said.

Overall, “these technologies are actually very good” and are revolutionising conservation efforts, Simlai emphasised.

But he called for more consultation with local communities about the technology, as well as more transparency and oversight from forest authorities, and sensitive training for local workers.

“A lot of that can be done by conservation organisations that — in the first instance — introduced these technologies to the government,” Sim added.

Rosaleen Duffy, a conservation expert at Sheffield University in the UK, told AFP that “sadly” she was not surprised by this research.

“What surprises me is conservationists who imagine that technologies can be introduced and used in a social, political and economic vacuum,” she said.

“The cases in this research are not accidental,” Duffy pointed out. “They were actively using the drones to provide new ways of continuing to harass women.”

While this technology can be a powerful tool to conserve wildlife, “there must be clear rules for what they can and cannot be used for, and clear consequences for anyone misusing them”, she added.

The new cases were reported days after a Global Polio Eradication Initiative delegation met Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and other officials to discuss “strategies to combat the poliovirus outbreak and to address emerging challenges”.

Pakistan has now reported 55 cases of poliovirus in 2024. The widespread detection of cases and indication of the virus’ presence in several cities depict the immunity gap among children.

The Regional Reference Laboratory for Polio Eradication at the National Institute of Health has confirmed the three wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) cases.

A lab official told Dawn that new cases were reported from Dera Ismail Khan, Zhob and Jaffarabad. The victims were female children aged 8 and 20 months and a five-month-old male child.

All three districts have already reported a case of poliovirus this year.

D.I. Khan has been one of the seven polio-endemic districts in southern KP South KP, where routine immunisation programmes have faced significant challenges in accessing all vulnerable children during the last three years. D.I. Khan has now reported six polio cases.

Similar challenges are prevalent in Balochistan, where Zhob and Jaffarabad districts have reported three and two cases, respectively, in 2024.

The districts form part of central Pakistan, another epidemiologically important zone that has been detecting the virus repeatedly for over a year, linked to core reservoirs of Quetta block as well as Karachi,“ he said.

Of the total 55 cases reported so far, 26 have been reported from Balochistan, 14 from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, 13 from Sindh, and one each from Punjab and Islamabad.

Published in Dawn, November 25th, 2024

The delegation included Belarusian foreign minister, minister for energy, minister for justice, minister for transport, minister for natural resources, minister for emergency situations, and chairman of the Military Industry Committee.

Forty-three prominent business personalities of Belarus are also part of the delegation.

The interior minister held a meeting with Foreign Minister Maxim Ryzhenkov and the Belarusian energy minister. While welcoming the delegation to the federal capital, the interior minister said that the government and people of Pakistan are eagerly waiting for Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.

It may be mentioned that President Lukashenko is scheduled to arrive in Pakistan today (Monday).

Mr Naqvi emphasised that President Lukashenko’s visit is crucial in strengthening bilateral relations between Pakistan and Belarus.

Her said Pakistan greatly values its relations with Belarus and aims to enhance cooperation in various sectors.

The interior minister highlighted that the Belarusian leader’s visit would promote cooperation between the two countries in industry, trade, and other sectors.

Published in Dawn, November 25th, 2024

Karachi Grammar School (KGS) obliterated the field with a mammoth 741 points, while smaller but equally mighty teams of CAS and Karachi Club finished at second (218 points) and third place (129 points), respectively.

Nearly 20 new records were created across six age groups at the two-day championship, the largest and oldest women’s swimming event in Pakistan.

Meher Maqbool and Hareem Malik headlined the championship to cement KGS’ victory, bagging 10 gold medals and 33 points each to become the Open Age and U-16 Group Champion, respectively.

Both girls bettered several of their own records set last year, setting five individual records each.

KGS had two more group champions in the roster as Soha Sohail Abbasi took home the U-10 title with five gold medals and two new records, while Aleesha Hussain-Aamir shared the U-8 trophy with Zargul Hussain from Bayview Academy.

Zoya Hafiz (CAS) was in a league of her own as she clinched the U-12 title with four gold, one silver and one bronze medal, plus a new record. Her seamless win the Open Age 400m Individual Medley and silver in the 200m butterfly — two notoriously unforgiving events, especially for an 11-year-old — seems like a prelude for success at the open age national championships she wants to debut at next year.

Her victory comes on the heels of the women’s national age group championship in Lahore last month, where she set three new records and won five gold medals to top the U-12 rankings. Soha also made her mark in U-10 in Lahore with two gold and two silver medals, telling Dawn “it’s been a long journey for swimming so far.”

Meher and Hareem also went neck and neck for gold medals in Lahore but it was Hareem who snagged the U-16 title with six new records, one of which became a new national record in the 50m breaststroke in 35.62, a feat rarely seen at an age-group championship.

“I want to represent Pakistan at a higher level and really just make my country shine,” the 15-year-old told Dawn, adding her hopes for an Olympic debut that is the hallmark of every top-notch athlete.

The Sindh Open has come to be a “celebration of talent, determination and unwavering spirit of young girls, [who] demonstrate what is possible when women are allowed to excel”, as chief guest Sania Maskatiya put it.

Jasmine Sharif, 38, is one of those women who’ve excelled in sports and life. She first swam at the Sindh Open in 2004 in the first-ever inclusive race for children with special needs. Twenty years and a Special Olympics debut later, Jasmine works with Special Olympics Pakistan and wants to see more special needs children in sports, like CAS’ Amna Zia who blitzed to gold in this year’s inclusive race.

The young women’s brilliance in the pool has been fostered by veteran coaches like Zameerul Hassan, who urges the government to invest in swimming pools so that more people have access to the still-elitist sport.

“Women have limited resources, and sports gives them a platform to succeed just as much as the men do. And that’s what the government needs to focus on.”

Published in Dawn, November 25th, 2024

The truce was brokered by an official delegation led by Barrister Muha­mmad Ali Saif, the information adviser to the KP’s chief minister.

“We engaged both groups (in the Parachinar and Sadda cities of Kur­ram), convincing them to agree to a seven-day ceasefire. Hostages will be released and the bodies of the deceased will also be recovered,” Mr Saif told Dawn.

The delegation, which included the provincial chief secretary, police chief and law minister, was dispatched to Kurram to assess the situation after a deadly ambush on a passenger convoy last Thursday claimed over 40 lives.

The attack, allegedly a reprisal for an earlier assault on Oct 12, has triggered a wave of violence in the district.

In a retaliatory attack on Friday night, armed groups from the district headquarters Parachinar stormed Bagan Bazaar and surrounding villages in Lower Kurram, leaving 21 dead.

Kurram district, which borders Afghanistan, has long been plagued by sectarian tensions, often fuelled by disputes over land ownership.

While the government-appointed land commission reportedly submitted its findings in the past, the report remains unpublished due to sectarian sensitivities.

Mr Saif said that normalising the situation was the delegation’s top priority before carrying on with negotiations to address deeper disputes since “nothing could be done during an ongoing conflict”.

Despite achieving a temporary truce, tensions remain high in areas like Bagan, where some armed individuals continue to hold positions.

The chief minister’s adviser said that the groups made a commitment to the delegation for the ceasefire and hoped that the hostage swap would also be done today (Monday).

He admitted the situation remains tense in areas like Bagan and hoped it would normalise after the swap.

Mr Saif also noted that since most elders from both groups resided in Kohat district, the delegations planned to visit Kohat today as talks were still underway.

“Both sides have agreed to a ceasefire, but the delegation is monitoring the situation and keeping an eye on miscreants,” Mr Saif said.

Meanwhile, the district remained tense on Sunday, with reports of intermittent firing from various locations, including Bagan, Alizai, Baleechkhel and Kharkalay in Lower Kurram, as well as Kanj Alizai and Maqbal in Upper Kurram.

While taking to Dawn, former MNA Sajid Turi called for increased cooperation from security forces, police and local administration to stabilise the district.

Bilawal criticises KP govt

PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari on Sunday expressed deep concern over the deteriorating law and order situation in Kurram, condemning the provincial government’s handling of the crisis, the APP reported.

“On the one hand, the Kurram district is burning in the fire of unrest, and on the other, the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government is absent from the scene,” he stated in a press release from Bilawal House.

He pointed out that in the last few days, 80 citizens had been killed in Kurram, and people were not even safe in their homes, adding that the government’s silence during this turmoil was tantamount to being an ally of the terrorists.

Mr Bhutto-Zardari emphasised that maintaining law and order was the primary responsibility of the provincial government and that the PTI-led provincial government had failed to protect the lives and property of citizens.

“We condemn the criminal negligence of the PTI government in Kurram,” he said.

“My heart is bleeding for the victims, and we cannot stand to see Khyber Pakhtunkhwa burn in the flames of lawlessness. The Pakistan Peoples Party will play its role in ensuring peace and order, not only in Kurram but across the entire province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa,” he added.

Published in Dawn, November 25th, 2024

Foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said the meeting of the deputy foreign ministers of Iran, France, Germany and the United Kingdom would take place on Friday.

“A range of regional and international issues and topics, including the issues of Palestine and Lebanon, as well as the nuclear issue, will be discussed,” the spokesman said in a foreign ministry statement.

Baghaei described the upcoming meeting as a continuation of talks held with the countries in September on the sidelines of the annual session of the UN General Assembly in New York.

The meeting also covering issues of Palestine and Lebanon expected on Friday

Japan’s Kyodo news agency, which first reported that the meeting would take place on Friday in Geneva, said Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s government was seeking a solution to the nuclear impasse ahead of the inauguration in January of US president-elect Donald Trump.

“Views will be exchanged … on a range of regional discussions and subjects including the issues of Palestine, Lebanon and also the nuclear subject”, Baghaei said.

The return of Trump

In 2018, the then-Trump administration exited Iran’s 2015 nuclear pact with six major powers and reimposed harsh sanctions on Iran, prom­pting Tehran to violate the pact’s nuclear limits, with moves such as rebuilding stockpiles of enriched uranium, refining it to higher fissile purity and installing advanced centrifuges to speed up output.

Indirect talks between President Joe Biden’s administration and Tehran to try to revive the pact have failed, but Trump said during his election campaign in September: “We have to make a deal, because the consequences are impossible. We have to make a deal”.

On Thursday, the 35-nation board of governors of the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) adopted a resolution denouncing Iran for what it called a lack of cooperation.

The move came as tensions ran high over Iran’s atomic programme, which critics fear is aimed at developing a nuclear weapon — something Tehran has repeatedly denied.

In response to the resolution, Iran announced it was launching a “series of new and advanced centrifuges”. Centrifuges enrich uranium transformed into gas by rotating it at very high speed, increasing the proportion of fissile isotope material (U-235).

“We will substantially increase the enrichment capacity with the utilisation of different types of advanced machines,” Behrouz Kamalvandi, Iran’s atomic energy organisation spokesman, told state TV.

The country, however, also said it planned to continue its “technical and safeguards cooperation with the IAEA”.

During a recent visit to Tehran by IAEA head Rafael Grossi, Iran agreed to the agency’s demand to cap its sensitive stock of near weapons-grade uranium enriched up to 60 per cent purity.

‘Doubts and ambiguities’

Iranian President Masoud Pezesh­kian, in power since July and a supporter of dialogue with Western countries, has said he wants to remove “doubts and ambiguities” about his country’s nuclear programme.

In 2015, Iran and world powers reached an agreement that saw the easing of international sanctions on Tehran in exchange for curbs on its nuclear programme.

But the United States unilaterally withdrew from the accord in 2018 under then-president Donald Trump and reimposed biting economic sanctions, which prompted Iran to begin rolling back on its own commitments.

On Sunday afternoon, the United Kingdom confirmed the upcoming meeting between Iran and the three European countries.

“We remain committed to taking every diplomatic step to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, including through snapback if necessary,” London’s Foreign Office said.

The 2015 deal contains a “snapback” mechanism that can be triggered in case of “significant non-performance” of commitments by Iran, allowing many sanctions to be reimposed.

Tehran has since 2021 decreased its cooperation with the IAEA by deactivating surveillance devices monitoring the nuclear programme and barring UN inspectors.

At the same time, it has increased its stockpiles of enriched uranium and the level of enrichment to 60pc.

That level is close, according to the IAEA, to the 90pc-plus threshold required for a nuclear warhead, and substantially higher than the 3.67pc limit it agreed to in 2015.

Published in Dawn, November 25th, 2024

US authorities estimate that there are around 11 million unauthorised people living in the United States, the vast majority of whom come from Mexico.

Around 8.3m unauthorised people were in the labour force in 2022, according to a recent estimate from the Pew Research Center. That was equivalent to just under five per cent of the overall workforce.

“Today our cities are flooded with illegal aliens,” Trump said on the campaign trail earlier this year, adding: “Americans are being squeezed out of the labour force and their jobs are taken.”

By 2028, US growth may drop to 7.4pc beneath baseline estimates, study finds

The reality, however, is more complex; many of the sectors that could be the hardest-hit have long struggled to attract US workers.

“The construction and agriculture industries would lose at least one in eight workers, while in hospitality, about one in 14 workers would be deported due to their undocumented status,” the non-profit American Immigration Council (AIC) said in a recent report on Trump’s deportation plans.

The deportations would also impact “more than 30pc” of plasterers, roofers, and painters, along with a quarter of housekeeping cleaners, according to the report.

A recent joint study by the American Enterprise Institute, Brookings Institution, and the Niskanen Center estimated that Trump’s immigration plans could curb US GDP growth in 2025 by as much as 0.4 percentage points.

The impact on growth would primarily come from the direct effect of having fewer foreign workers producing goods and services, with an additional, smaller decline in output coming from less consumer spending by those groups.

In such a scenario, the authors said, “legal immigration is slightly below where it was during the pre-pandemic Trump administration, while enforcement and deportation efforts reach levels not seen in recent decades.”

A total of 3.2m people would be deported during Trump’s term under this projection, with net migration — arrivals minus departures — falling from 3.3m in 2024 to negative 740,000 in 2025, boosted by a sharp rise in voluntary emigration.

In a more extreme scenario, which analysts say is highly unlikely, the impact on growth could be much more significant.

A recent Peterson Institute for International Economics report modelled the impact of expelling all 8.3m unauthorised immigrant workers.

It predicted that economic growth by 2028 could be 7.4pc beneath baseline estimates, “meaning no US net economic growth occurs over the second Trump term because of this policy alone.”

At the same time, US inflation would be 3.5 percentage points higher by 2026 than it would otherwise be, as employers raised wages to attract American workers.

But even in a less significant scenario, mass deportations could push up prices, analysts say.

Trump’s immigration plans “could lead to big price increases in certain sectors of the economy, but could also lead to inflation,” said Michael Strain, AEI’s director of economic policy studies.

Published in Dawn, November 25th, 2024

In terms of real estate, its location can be dubbed a “corner plot” as the kiosk has two entrances — where reception desks are set up with a helpful staff eager to help visitors who want information about climate change’s impact on Pakistan.

The pavilion, however, cost $250,000 — an expense deemed necessary by the government to highlight Pakistan’s climate plight at the global conference.

Like other pavilions, the Ministry of Climate Change also handed out badges to showcase local culture — the crowd reportedly nearly came to blows when snow leopard pins were being distributed.

The interest in these “pins” was so much that most pavilions have “Sorry, No Pins Today” signs up before the afternoon.

Observers impressed by Islamabad’s ‘corner plot’ presence at Baku summit

The strategy to attract people seemed to work: in the first leg of the two-week COP29, dignitaries from Pakistan, including Supreme Court judges, experts from the World Bank, WWF, and other multilateral forums, spoke there to an almost jam-packed hall.

“The pavilion is very busy,” said veteran climate journalist Joydeep Gupta, who has covered more than 15 COP conferences. A journalist from China also found the officials “quite friendly” and the pavilion “not so crowded but not too empty”.

Sometimes, there was food and tea served at the end of the noon session. “It helps attract people,” one of the officials told Dawn. That is true. All the 160 pavilions (listed on the official map) hosted by the countries and global bodies were in an undeclared contest — who will attract more people. Given how expensive the food at COP29 is, free food and drinks definitely were crowd-pullers.

Australia and Germany also offered free coffee and other beverages in the evening to raise their profile; and the same was the case with many others. If you think the food is expensive in the UN-controlled Blue Zone — where a small sandwich is about $8 — a water bottle at the ‘COP shop’ in the presidency-run Green Zone cost $23.

No money for delegation office

This economic disparity is at play at a larger stage too. As it reels from an economic crisis at home, Pakistan could not afford a delegation office because of a lack of funds.

Fermin Koop, a veteran climate journalist from Argentina, believed the pavilions were necessary because they raised a country’s profile, but delegation offices were primarily for private meetings, which could also be held anywhere inside or outside the venue.

These delegation offices were set up in a never-ending corridor on the first floor of the Baku Olympics Stadium and require special permission to enter.

Interestingly, India with a low-key presence at the conference, does not have a pavilion, only a delegation office. The sole national flag by its door – probably placed by the COP presidency — was the only way of knowing this was their office.

Speaking to Dawn, PM’s Coordinator on Climate Change Romina Khurshid Alam said she was there to fight Pakistan’s case for climate justice and that the pavilion was a testament to that commitment.

“The world has to do more now,” the PM’s aide, who had been running from one pavilion to another for high-level meetings — just like this correspondent – told Dawn at the pavilion.

Samina Mumtaz Zehri, who heads the National Assembly Standing Committee on Climate Change, told Dawn they had done a lot of hard work before coming to Baku. In the lead-up to COP29, a “COP simulation” drive was organised to give final touches to the groundwork.

Journalists covering this conference often complained or cracked “leg” jokes about all the walking involved, saying that even if the negotiations do not lead anywhere, at least they will all be slimmer by the time the summit ends.

Some who keep track of their daily walks liked to compare their steps at the end of the day, and all of them are 12,000 steps upward. The step count could have been higher, if the almost 3,000 volunteers recruited by the COP presidency weren’t so helpful.

Published in Dawn, November 25th, 2024

Maternal mental health concerns are significantly associated with lower levels of early childhood development.

The research also analyses how exposure to stress factors such as food insecurity, financial insecurity, being impacted by flooding, community crime, discrimination, and domestic violence exacerbate both maternal mental health and child outcomes, according to the research report.

In Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa specifically, 28 per cent of women and 58pc of pregnant women seen at health facilities have been found depressed.

An estimated 21pc of women in a study in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa were found to have generalised anxiety disorder.

The report is based on a household survey commissioned by the World Bank and carried out by the Center for Evaluation and Development between December 2023 and February 2024 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Households were selected based on being located in the catchment area of one of 200 public schools across Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, excluding newly merged districts.

At health facilities, 28pc of women and 58pc of pregnant women were found depressed in KP

The regression analyses indicate a significant and negative compounding interaction of maternal depression, anxiety, and parenting stress on early childhood development for younger (below 3 years) and older (3-6 years) children, even after controlling for stressors and other covariates.

The World Bank research suggests policy improvements are needed that focus on at-risk communities, providing mental health services and reducing exposure to stressors within communities and households.

Parents in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa confront a multitude of risks to child development that have worsened in the last decade.

Longstanding challenges include high rates of poverty, low access to high-quality education including preprimary education, and incomplete and inadequate coverage of social assistance cash transfers.

Added to these risks are maternal depression, anxiety and parenting stress, which have been found to be consistently negatively impacted by fragility, conflict and violence.

Various studies confirm that higher levels of parental depression, anxiety, and parenting stress respectively predict higher levels of children’s internalising behaviours, higher levels of externalising behaviours like anger, aggression, and reduced social-emotional competence like ability to self-regulate, follow instructions, get along with peers.

When multiple parental mental health problems co-occur, early childhood functioning is at increased risk.

The research paper says in Pakistan, rates of comorbidity of anxiety and depression have been found to range between 25pc and 34pc and higher rates are seen in women than men.

While these risks occur across the socio-economic spectrum, women in low-income households experience disproportionate levels of mental health concerns, such as depression, and display fewer characteristics that foster favourable early childhood development (ECD), such as maternal supportiveness and cognitive stimulation.

Vulnerable groups typically experience markedly higher rates of mental health concerns. Depression and anxiety during pregnancy have been shown to have a higher incidence among women from rural areas compared to those from urban areas in Pakistan.

A cross-sectional study in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa found an association between women with low educational attainment and higher levels of maternal depression and anxiety.

Data from Pakistan shows correlations with maternal depression in the antenatal and postpartum periods, there is less research showing relationships between mothers’ mental health status and ECD through the preschool-age years. Pakistan has one of the highest estimates of maternal postpartum depression in Asian countries, with rates ranging from 28pc to 63pc — as well as evidence of paternal post-partum depression.

Published in Dawn, November 25th, 2024

According to a Cleveland Clinic study, nearly 60 per cent of men avoid regular doctor visits, waiting until a serious illness forces them to seek medical attention. They are significantly more inclined to talk about current events (36pc), sports (32pc), or their work (32pc) than to open up about their health, which only 7pc prioritise as a topic of discussion.

Trapped in the stigma of invulnerability, countless men neglect their health until it’s too late. This pattern is especially pronounced in countries like Pakistan, where the cultural expectations to “man up” and embody stoic strength push them to suffer in silence, their health deteriorating in the shadows. The idea of seeking help — be it for physical ailments or mental health — is often perceived as a sign of weakness.

This societal pressure creates a dangerous ripple effect, with 24pc men less likely to undergo routine checkups, share their struggles, or adopt preventive measures compared to women, even as their life expectancy lags behind by an average of five years.

The ‘Movember’ movement

November, designated as Men’s Health Awareness Month, sheds light on key health concerns, including prostate and testicular cancer, mental health, and suicide prevention. International Men’s Day on November 19 serves as a reminder to understand the signs and preventive actions, highlighting the importance of addressing healthcare disparities and ensuring better access to care for all men.

In a lighter vein, the campaign’s timing couldn’t be more fitting, aligning with “Movember” — a global movement that has, since 2003, encouraged men to take charge of their health problems. From Hollywood celebrities acing the moustache trend to cricketers endorsing regular health checks, pop culture is increasingly stepping up to normalise self-care for men.

This cultural shift towards embracing men’s health extends beyond the physical, shining a much-needed light on the often-overlooked realm of mental well-being.

Mental health

Globally, depression affects over 280 million people, with the majority of men often reluctant to seek help. In Pakistan, mental health issues are widespread, impacting around 34pc of the population, exacerbated by socio-economic constraints and limited mental health services. Around one in four men face anxiety disorders, grappling with symptoms like a racing heartbeat, sudden panic, and relentless obsessive thoughts. Depression, on the other hand, manifests in unexplained sadness, restless nights, drained energy, and, at its darkest, thoughts of self-harm.

Moreover, the shadow of stigma surrounding mental health casts a long and challenging path to treatment. Fighting this archaic school of thought demands bold preventative strategies — raising awareness, fostering open conversations, and widening access to mental health support. The key lies in early intervention, where empowered communities and integrated mental health services in primary care can shatter stereotypes, ease access, and ignite a culture of understanding.

Prostate diseases

Prostate diseases, notably benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) and prostate cancer, stand as critical health concerns for men. BPH — a non-cancerous but widespread condition — often emerges in the late 40s and affects nearly all men by the time they’re 80. Symptoms such as difficulty urinating, a weak urine stream, urinary incontinence, and frequent nighttime trips to the bathroom significantly affect quality of life. Diagnosis typically involves a thorough medical history, a digital rectal exam, blood tests like prostate-specific antigen (PSA), and imaging such as ultrasound, ensuring timely and accurate assessment.

According to GLOBOCAN 2022 prostate cancer is the second most common cancer in men, with over 1.4 million new cases reported annually. The highest incidence rates are found in developed countries like North America and Europe. In Pakistan, the incidence is lower due to genetic factors but is also influenced by limited screening and awareness, often resulting in late-stage diagnoses. Risk factors include age (over 50), family history of prostate, ovarian, or breast cancer, and race, with African American men at higher risk.

Early symptoms of prostate cancer are often subtle, such as difficulty urinating, blood in the urine or semen, and persistent pelvic discomfort. As the disease progresses, more severe signs like bone pain and unexplained weight loss may appear.

Routine PSA screenings, a balanced lifestyle, and widespread public health education are imperative for early detection. This is particularly crucial in countries like Pakistan, where incomplete cancer statistics and underfunded healthcare systems pose significant barriers to timely diagnosis and effective treatment.

Testicular cancer

Testicular cancer, though less common than prostate cancer, is the leading cancer among younger men aged 15 to 35. Highly treatable when caught early, it often flies under the radar due to its rarity and subtle early symptoms. In Pakistan, limited awareness and cultural taboos hinder diagnosis, leaving multiple cases undetected. Risk factors include a family history of the disease and undescended testicles. With early-stage testicular cancer often symptom-free, regular self-examinations are a simple yet life-saving habit.

Key warning signs of testicular cancer include a painless lump or swelling in the testicle, a sensation of heaviness in the scrotum, or a persistent dull ache in the lower abdomen or groin. Once again, monthly self-examinations are vital for spotting these changes early and public health campaigns focused on men’s health can play a transformative role as well. Men must consult a doctor promptly if they notice any unusual changes, as early action can make all the difference in the world.

Charting the path

In a country where harmful gender-based stereotypes and healthcare gaps stifle conversations about physical and mental well-being, the cost of neglect could be a life.

With the odds stacked against men due to poor healthcare infrastructure, limited awareness, and societal taboos, they are often left behind when it comes to seeking timely medical help. The lack of routine screenings and specialised care only exacerbates the issue. But there’s light at the end of the tunnel.

By advocating for increased government investment, integrating mental health services into primary care, and launching nationwide awareness campaigns, we can make significant strides in encouraging men to start these important conversations and prioritise early detection, mental health support, and cancer care.

It’s time to turn the tide, and it starts with all of us doing our bit to change the narrative — because men’s health is just as much our responsibility as it is theirs.

Header image created with generative AI

It quoted local Muslims as alleging that the three men were killed in police firing.

But the administration claimed that they were killed in cross-firing between the members of the mob, which attacked the police with stones from three sides and fired bullets at them.

A senior government official claimed that the police only lobbed teargas and used plastic bullets to disperse the protestors and evacuate the survey team from the area after the crowd rained stones at them.

The three persons who were killed in the “golibari” (firing) incident were identified as Naeem, Noman and Bilal, said Moradabad divisional commissioner Aunjaneya Kumar Singh.

Hindu activists claim the 500-year-old mosque was originally a temple site

The official, according to The Wire, said that 15-20 police constables were injured in the stone-pelting, a public relations officer of the Sambhal district police chief was shot in the leg, a deputy collector’s foot was fractured and a police circle officer was hit by a shrapnel.

Fifteen persons, including two women, accused of pelting stones at the police from a rooftop, were detained during the violence, said the commissioner.

Three or four cars and a couple of motorbikes parked in the area were also torched by the protesters, said the official.

The police said they were searching for those who indulged in the stone pelting on the basis of CCTV and drone camera footage and planned to slap the stringent National Security Act (NSA) against them.

“They challenged the police and administration in a targeted way and this was not the act of an unruly mob,” said Superintendent of Police Sambhal Krishan Kumar Bishnoi, alleging that the mob wanted to disrupt the survey work in the mosque.

The violence broke out in lanes near the Shahi Jama Masjid when an advocate commissioner appointed by a local court was conducting the survey in the presence of the local administration and police.

The court on Nov 14 ordered a survey of the mosque after taking cognisance of an application by some Hindu activists who filed a suit claiming that the Islamic religious site, built during the time of Emperor Babur, was originally a prominent Hindu temple dedicated to the prophesied avatar of Vishnu, Kalki.

After conducting an initial hurried survey of the mosque within a few hours of the court’s orders, the survey team reached the mosque for a second round of photography and videography on the morning of Nov 24.

The survey, which started around 7:30am, went on peacefully for two hours when a crowd gathered and started raising slogans, said the commissioner.

Civil judge Aditya Singh had directed the survey of the mosque on an application filed by plaintiffs, led by pro-Hindutva lawyer Hari Shankar Jain and Hindu seer Mahant Rishiraj Giri, as part of a civil suit claiming right for access into the mosque, The Wire said.

The mosque, claimed to have been built on the directions of the first Mughal emperor Babar, is acknowledged as a “historic monument” on the official website of the Sambhal district.

The Hindu petitioners, however, claimed that the mosque was the site of an ancient temple dedicated to Kalki, the prophesised final incarnation of Vishnu.

Advocate Vishnu Shankar Jain claimed Emperor Babur partly demolished the Hari temple and tried to convert it into a mosque in 1529.

While accepting the plea of the Hindu plaintiffs to get the mosque surveyed by an advocate commissioner, the court said, “The submission of a report of the site might facilitate the court to adjudicate the suit”.

In their suit, the plaintiffs said that the mosque was a monument protected under Section 3 (3) of the Ancient Monuments Preservation Act, 1904. They claimed that they were being “denied access” to the mosque.

The plaintiffs claimed that the site was a centuries-old Hari Temple dedicated to Kalki and was being “used forcibly and unlawfully” by the Jama Masjid committee.

SP MP from Sambhal, Zia-ur-Rehman Barq, who has opposed the survey on the grounds that the mosque was protected by The Place of Worship Act, 1991, appealed for peace after the violence. He promised to raise his voice against “police brutality” during the winter session of the parliament.

Vishnu Shankar Jain, the lawyer representing the Hindu plaintiffs, said the survey work was complete and the advocate commissioner would submit report to the court.

Published in Dawn, November 25th, 2024

For context, Pakistan alone needs $380 billion by 2030 to meet its climate goals, and the delegation expressed its disappointment at the closing plenary.

“We are leaving Baku with mixed feelings and a heavy heart. We note critical gaps in the decision we all adopted here … Global solidarity is important but the goal put forward by the developed countries does not match with the needs of the developing countries,” Romina Khurshid Alam, the PM’s aide on climate change, said in her speech at the closing plenary.

The Global South had dema­nded $1.3 trillion annually, but after almost a week of delaying tactics, the first draft agreement only mentioned ‘X’ trillion instead of an actual number.

Goal doesn’t match needs of developing world, Romina tells final COP29 plenary

Subsequently, $250 billion was offered, which was termed ‘insultingly low’ by the developing bloc. Eventually, $300 billion a year by 2035 was offered in the revised draft agreement, which was shared after midnight, and despite reservations on its quantum and quality, it was adopted by the plenary.

According to AFP, the applause had barely subsided when many developing states delivered a full-throated rejection of the deal, with the Indian delegate terming it a “paltry sum” and “an optical illusion”.

Sierra Leone’s climate minister Jiwoh Abdulai said it showed a “lack of goodwill” from rich countries, while Nigeria’s envoy Nkiruka Madu­ekwe put it even more bluntly, saying, “This is an insult”.

The agreement for the new collective quantified goal (NCQG) highlighted that “costed needs reported in nationally determined contributions of developing country parties are estimated at $5.1–6.8 trillion for up until 2030 or $455–584 billion per year and adaptation finance needs are estimated at $215–387 billion annually for up until 2030”.

According to the document, the gap between climate finance flows and needs, particularly for adaptation in developing countries, was concerning, and all parties were asked to work together to enable the scaling up of financing to developing countries.

One of the main points of disagreement was the quality of finance, as the Global South had been demanding public finance instead of mobilisation of private funding. The text, however, called on “all actors to work together to enable the scaling up of financing” to developing countries for climate action from all public and private sources to at least $1.3 trillion per year by 2035.

According to journalists present at the plenary, the agreement was gavelled through, with the presidency hardly giving the delegates any time to register their protests.

The new agreement decided to periodically take stock of the implementation of the NCQG decision as part of the global stocktake and to initiate deliberations on the way forward prior to 2035, including through a review of this decision in 2030.

Sanjay Vashist, director of the Climate Action Network South Asia, said the developing world needs at least $1.3 trillion for mitigation, adaptation and loss and damage, and by throwing $300 billion on the table and kicking any and all real decisions down the road to 2035, rich countries had not only betrayed the people of the Global South, but also their own citizens, who had hoped that their governments will finally grow a spine and act responsibly.

“Tonight in Baku, the masks have come off [and] rich and developed countries’ governments have revealed their true intentions, that they never intended to honour any of their commitments made under the Paris Agreement. Their addiction to fossil fuels has blinded them and they have allowed the over 1,000 fossil fuel industry representatives to hijack the COP29 negotiations,” he added in his statement.

SDPI Executive Director Abid Sulehri, who was part of Pakistan’s negotiating team, told Dawn that the $300bn agreement doesn’t match either; the urgency and ambition required to rescue the Paris Agreement, or the ambitious agenda that the developing countries are required to pursue to implement their NDCs.

“Although the number seems three times higher than what was agreed in Paris (i.e. $100bn every year till 2020), one must keep in mind that after adjusting for US inflation, the $300bn figure will be too little and too less. In the spirit of multilateralism we should cautiously welcome COP’s decision but should keep on pressing the developed countries to pay for their historic emissions.”

The only significant outcome, which made every government happy at this summit, was the carbon market guidelines adopted under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement.

This story was produced as part of the 2024 Climate Change Media Partnership, a journalism fellowship organised by Internews’ Earth Journalism Network and the Stanley Center for Peace and Security

Published in Dawn, November 25th, 2024

Liverpool were trailing 2-1 when Salah scored twice in the second half to take his season’s tally to 10 goals in the league.

After City lost their third straight league game on Saturday, Liverpool took full advantage and Arne Slot’s side now have 31 points from 12 games to City’s 23.

“They are a good team, good with the ball. They scored two quick goals but the most important thing was the reaction. We showed it very well and happy with the three points,” Liverpool goalscorer Dominik Szoboszlai told Sky Sports.

Southampton shot themselves in the foot when they tried playing out from the back and under Liverpool pressure, Flynn Downes’s pass fell to Szoboszlai at the edge of the box and the unmarked midfielder fired home to make it 1-0.

However, Southampton received a lifeline soon when Andy Robertson tripped Tyler Dibling on the edge of the box and the referee pointed to the spot, with VAR upholding the decision.

Although Adam Armstrong had his spot kick saved by Caoimhin Kelleher, the forward pounced on the rebound to equalise with his third goal in four games for Southampton.

Saints turned things around 11 minutes into the second half from a sublime counter-attack when Mateus Fernandes made a smart run and gave his team the lead.

After that Salah took matters into his own hands. The equaliser came when Salah ran through on goal on to a lob from Ryan Gravenberch and as he saw Alex McCarthy come off his line, Salah took one touch to let the ball roll past the goalkeeper.

Southampton then conceded a penalty in the 83rd minute from a Yukinari Sugawara handball and Salah made no mistake.

GUARDIOLA SEEKS RESPONSE TO CITY’S SLUMP

On Saturday, things kept turning worse for the champions City as they lost 4-0 to Tottenham Hotspur at the Etihad Stadium which is a shocking result even for manager Pep Guardiola.

Guardiola said he expected a slip in City’s standards sooner or later but their implosion in a five-game losing streak is a new low for the team.

James Maddison struck twice in seven first-half minutes before Pedro Porro rubbed salt in the wounds of his former club and Brennan Johnson completed the rout.

After losing four consecutive matches for the first time in his decorated managerial career, Guardiola backed himself to turn the situation around by signing a two-year extension.

Just 48 hours later, the positivity that deal created was punctured as City were humbled by Tottenham to lose at home for the first time in 52 matches.

Guardiola conceded his star-studded squad are “fragile” and low on confidence after a run that also included defeats to Bournemouth and Brighton and Hove Albion, either side of a 4-1 Champions League thrashing by Sporting Lisbon.

“Being here for eight years, I knew that sooner or later we would drop,” saidGuardiola. “Of course we never expect to lose three Premier League games in a row. In that time we always expected a drop, but we were incredibly consistent.

“However, we cannot deny the reality that sometimes in football and sometimes in life it’s here.”

Published in Dawn, November 25th, 2024

The visitors declared their second innings on 487-6 in the final session of day three after Kohli rolled back the years to reach 100.

Faced with an ominous 534 to win, Australia needed to survive 30 minutes before stumps.

But they instead imploded with rookie Nathan McSweeney out for a duck to Jasprit Bumrah and nightwatchman Pat Cummins falling for two, edging Mohammed Siraj to Kohli at slip.

When Bumrah trapped Ma­r­nus Labuschagne (three) lbw, a close was called with Usman Khawaja not-out three and Australia in disarray at 12-3.

The day belonged to Jaiswal, who grew up homeless in Mu­mbai, hitting 15 fours and three sixes in a 297-ball stay.

The 22-year-old opener, in his 15th Test, seemed destined for a double century but he cut Mitchell Marsh to Steve Smith at point and departed to a standing ovation.

“For me all my centuries are amazing, but this is special because I really wanted to do it (against Australia),” said Jaiswal.

“I worked so hard in every practice session, I wanted to score runs here in Australia, so I really enjoyed it. I was just playing normally, I always trust in me and believe in me.”

Kohli was also on fire in a welcome resurgence after a lengthy lean spell that sparked questions about his place in the team.

The 36-year-old rode his luck to bring up a 30th Test ton and his first since July last year to silence the critics.

Along with Jaiswal, Australia removed Devdutt Padikkal (25), Rishabh Pant (one), Dhruv Jurel (one) and Washington Sundar (29), having accounted for KL Rahul (77) before lunch.

Rahul’s demise snapped a 201-run opening partnership with Jaiswal, a record for India in Australia, eclipsing the previous best set by Sunil Gavaskar and Kris Srikkanth in Sydney in 1986.

“I think it’s just about the batters sticking to their plans tomorrow, batting some time,” said Australian speedster Josh Hazlewood on what Australia now need to do. “It’s obviously a long series so if we can put some overs into their top quicks, that’s one of the goals.

“And if some guys find some form and score 80, 90 or 100, that’s probably the positives we can take out of it.”

The visitors resumed after seizing control on day two when Australia were dismissed for a woeful 104 in reply to India’s 150.

Jaiswal, who began on 90, reached three figures with an extraordinary six off Haz­le­wood, hitting the boundary ­mar­ker on the full, triumphantly raising his arms in the air.

It was his fourth ton and first in Australia.

Since scoring 171 on debut against the West Indies in 2023 Jaiswal has cemented his place at the top of the Indian order.

Two double centuries at home against England this year catapulted him to stardom, but concerns lingered over how he would perform in Australian conditions.

After being out for a duck in the first innings his response against one of the world’s best attacks put any doubts to bed.

With the sun beating down, Australia finally earned some reward when Rahul feathered Mitchell Starc to wicket-keeper Alex Carey.

Playing in place of Rohit Sharma, who stayed home for the birth of his second child, the 32-year-old did a stellar job supporting his young partner.

Australia got another breakthrough on the first ball after lunch when Padikkal edged Hazlewood to Smith at slip.

Jaiswal’s dismissal sparked a mini collapse with Pant stumped by Carey and Jurel out lbw to Pat Cummins.

But Kohli and Sundar steadied the ship, putting on 89 for the sixth wicket, before Nathan Lyon bowled Sundar.

That introduced Nitish Kumar Reddy, who with Kohli went on an onslaught against a tired attack.

SCOREBOARD

INDIA (1st Innings) 150 (N.K. Reddy 41; J. Hazlewood 4-29)

AUSTRALIA (1st Innings) 104 (M. Starc 26; J. Bumrah 5-30)

INDIA (2nd Innings, overnight 172-0):

Y. Jaiswal c Smith b Marsh161

K. L Rahul c Carey b Starc77

D. Padikkal c Smith b Hazlewood25

V. Kohli not out100

R. Pant st Carey b Lyon1

D. Jurel lbw Cummins1

W. Sundar b Lyon29

N. K. Reddy not out38

EXTRAS (B-22, LB-15, NB-11, W-7)55

TOTAL (for six wkts decl, 134.3 overs)487

FALL OF WICKETS: 1-201 (Rahul), 2-275 (Padikkal), 3-313 (Jaiswal), 4-320 (Pant), 5-321 (Jurel), 6-410 (Sundar)

DID NOT BAT: H. Rana, J. Bumrah,

M. Siraj

BOWLING: Starc 26-2-111-1, Hazlewood 21-9-28-1 (1nb), Cummins 25-5-86-1 (1w, 3nb), Marsh 12-0-65-1 (6nb), Lyon 39-5-96-2, Labuschagne 6.3-0-38-0 (2w, 1nb), Head 5-0-26-0

AUSTRALIA (2nd Innings):

N. McSweeney lbw Bumrah0

U. Khawaja not out3

P. Cummins c Kohli b Siraj2

M. Labuschagne lbw Bumrah3

EXTRAS (B-4)4

TOTAL (for three wkts, 4.2 overs)12

FALL OF WICKETS: 1-0 (McSweeney), 2-9 (Cummins), 3-12 (Labuschagne)

STILL TO BAT: S. Smith, T. Head, M. Marsh, A. Carey, M. Starc, N. Lyon, J. Hazlewood

BOWLING: Bumrah 2.2-1-1-2, Siraj 2-0-7-1

Published in Dawn, November 25th, 2024

An Israeli rabbi who went missing in the United Arab Emirates has been found murdered.

Zvi Kogan, who worked in the UAE for the Orthodox Jewish group Chabad, which seeks to support Jewish life for thousands of Jewish visitors and residents in the Gulf Arab state, vanished in Dubai on Thursday.

Kogan’s body was found in the Emirati city of Al Ain, which borders Oman, though it is not clear if he was killed there or elsewhere, former Israeli Druze politician Ayoob Kara said in an English-language interview in Dubai.

Kara said he was waiting for the UAE to finish an investigation, but blamed Iran for the murder.

Zvi Kogan’s body was found in the Emirati city of Al Ain

Ayoob Kara is a member of Israel’s ruling right-wing Likud party who works to promote economic relations between Israel and the Arab world.

Kara said Kogan’s body would be sent to Israel for burial after the UAE finished investigating. Emirati and Israeli authorities have not said who was involved in the killing nor what the motive might have been.

The UAE state news agency said the interior ministry was investigating Kogan’s disappearance but the foreign ministry did not comment on Sunday’s news that the body of Kogan, who also held Moldovan citizenship, had been discovered.

Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the UAE president, posted on social media on Sunday that the UAE would remain an “oasis of stability, a society of tolerance and coexistence”, without making direct reference to Kogan’s murder.

Meanwhile, Israeli authorities reissued their recommendation against all non-essential travel to the UAE and said visitors now there should minimise movement, remain in secure areas and avoid visiting places associated with Israel and Jewish populations.

The UAE’s Israeli and Jewish community has grown more visible since 2020 when the country became the most prominent Arab state in 30 years to establish formal ties with Israel under a US-brokered agreement, dubbed the Abraham Accords.

The UAE has maintained the relationship during the 13-month conflict in Gaza. However, the public presence of Israelis and Jews in the UAE has appeared to recede since Oct 7, 2023.

Kara said the UAE’s Jewish community was in “shock” at the news of Kogan’s murder, but that Israelis and Jews would still visit and build ties in the Gulf country.

“I am sure that lots of Jewish (people) will continue to invest here. No way to stop this relationship and this cooperation,” said Kara, who is not Jewish and is a member of Israel’s Druze minority.

Jewish community members in the UAE said informal synagogues in Dubai were closed after Oct 7 rade over security concerns, with Jews instead gathering to pray at home.

The one government-approved synagogue in the UAE remains open in Abu Dhabi, the UAE capital. There are no official synagogues in Dubai, the UAE’s biggest city and commercial hub.

There are no official statistics on the number of Jews or Israelis living in the country, but estimates from Jewish groups suggest the community numbers in the several thousand.

Published in Dawn, November 25th, 2024

The first formal review of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) is due in March 2025.

Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb rejected the perception that the IMF’s early visit indicated distrust in the government or discomfort with the pace of agreed reforms and policy decisions. “There were no specific concerns. It was a routine visit, part of the IMF’s standard practice for countries with active programmes. The mission reviewed updates on benchmarks and key targets,” he clarified in response to a query.

Addressing media reports citing concerns raised by the donor over the Saudi oil facility set to expire by the end of this calendar year. Mr Aurangzeb confirmed,

“We are actively working with Saudi authorities on this matter.” Regarding progress in bridging the $2.5b external financing gap for the current fiscal year, the Finance Minister reas-sured, “Arrangements with bilateral creditors, including the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and China, are firmly in place and proceeding smoothly.”

Dr Reza Baqir, former Governor of the State Bank of Pakistan, who worked with the IMF for 18 years, considered the controversy over the IMF staff visit trivial. “To my knowledge, there was nothing unusual about the visit. The IMF previously conducted quarterly reviews, but now follows a semiannual review schedule. Between these reviews, it’s standard practice of the IMF to conduct ‘staff visits’ to monitor progress on meeting conditionalities,” he explained.

We are encouraged by the authorities’ reaffirmed commitment to the economic reforms supported by the 2024 EFF,“ Nathan Porter, the chief of the IMF’s Pakistan mission, who led the talks, said in a statement.

The constructive discussions on eco- t nomic policy and reform efforts to reduce vulnerabilities would help to lay the basis for stronger and sustainable growth, he added.

Prominent business leaders in Pakistan have voiced strong support for the IMF, viewing it not only as a key partner in addressing the country’s external sector crisis but also as an essential source of economic oversight. Given the weakness of local institutions and the political leadership’s tendency to deviate from sound economic planning and policy under public and special interest pressures, the IMF’s guidance and control are seen as critical for maintaining fiscal discipline and steering economic reforms.

Ehsan Malik, CEO of Pakistan Business Council, highlighted the importance of strengthening ties with the IMF during the current challenging period. “For this pro-gramme to be Pakistan’s last with the IMF, it is essential to ensure that key deliver-ables are met on time. Like any borrower-lender relationship, consistent and effective communication between both sides is crucial,” he emphasised.

“Face-to-face interaction between the IMF team and the Finance Ministry is a positive development, reflecting growing confidence and trust. The IMF’s visil offered a valuable opportunity to discuss strategies for getting tax revenue back or track, to explore plans for restarting priva tisation and to seek reassurance regard ing the fiscal agreement with the provinces,” he noted.

“It is crucial to recognise that, in addi tion to providing financial support, the IMF also offers valuable technical assistance The government would have sharec updates on its ongoing progress in main taining macroeconomic stability Therefore, I view the IMF’s unschedule evaluation as a positive development rather a cause for concern,” Mr Malik emphasised.

According to information gathered from sources who have been part of engagements with the donor, the regular reviews in a programme are part of an agreed-upon timetable to ensure compliance with targets and policies. The unscheduled visits by the IMF staff are uncommon and occur in case of economic shocks leading to significant deviations if evidence of straying from the agreed path surfaces or on clients’ requests to renegotiate terms or seek additional support.

“While the IMF normally sticks to scheduled evaluations to ensure predictability, unscheduled visits are within its mandate if circumstances demand them. These visits are typically focused on addressing immediate concerns rather than routine assessments,” a source remarked.

Earlier last week, Finance Minister Aurangzeb commented on the negotiations with the IMF, noting, “We discussed reforms in taxation, energy sector, privati-sation of loss-making state-owned enterprises and public finance.” This highlights the government’s focus on addressing key structural issues as part of its economic strategy to align with the IMF’s advice for continued financial support.

After concluding the visit, Nathan Porter, head of the IMF’s Pakistan mission, who led the talks, expressed optimism in a statement, saying, “We are encouraged by the authorities’ reaffirmed commitment to the economic reforms supported by the 2024 EFF.” He added, “The talks aimed to reduce vulnerabilities and lay the foundation for stronger and sustainable growth.”

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, November 25th, 2024

While both public and private sectors are actively involved in providing contraceptives and promoting family planning, the province’s population growth continues at a rapid pace, suggesting that current initiatives may be reaching a plateau. The province’s limited fiscal space also necessitates a comprehensive strategy for resource mobilisation to finance the necessary services. To address the persistent unmet need for contraceptives, strategic purchasing could be explored as a promising approach.

Strategic purchasing in family planning emphasises a more targeted, value-driven approach to procuring services, ensuring that resources are allocated efficiently to enhance population health outcomes. In Punjab, adopting strategic purchasing practices could drive transformative improvements in service delivery, patient engagement, and care quality. This approach not only strengthens access to family planning services but also optimises resource use for greater impact.

A key example is the transition from traditional, volume-based payment models to performance-based payment models, where payments are tied to specific outcomes, such as increased contraceptive uptake or expanded service delivery networks in rural areas. By incentivising both quantity and quality of care, the government can motivate providers while holding them accountable for delivering accessible, high-quality family planning services.

Rwanda’s community-based pay-for-performance programme provides an illustrative case. This initiative, aimed at improving maternal and child health — including family planning — tied payments to health facilities based on performance indicators. These included metrics like the number of family planning consultations and quality measures such as patient satisfaction and follow-up care.

Engaging in public-private partnerships could help contain the population crises

The programme’s implementation led to a notable increase in family planning visits, enhanced quality of counselling, and more effective management of contraceptive supply stocks, demonstrating the potential of strategic purchasing to improve healthcare outcomes.

The Government of Punjab has been actively exploring various strategic health purchasing approaches to expand access to family planning services. A recent collaboration with the World Bank exemplifies this commitment, focusing on interventions that leverage a pay-for-performance model to enhance both the accessibility and quality of family planning services.

A promising area for further development under strategic purchasing is the strengthening of public-private partnerships (PPPs) in family planning service delivery. Currently, the public sector shoulders much of the responsibility for providing these services in Punjab, resulting in fragmented access — particularly for long-term contraceptive methods.

This fragmentation leads to limited access, with the bulk of services concentrated in urban and peri-urban areas, while rural populations remain underserved.

An integrated approach, leveraging PPPs, could help bridge this gap by improving service availability in rural areas, expanding options for contraceptive methods, and creating a more cohesive network of family planning providers across the province.

One notable project was piloted in Rahim Yar Khan and Dera Ghazi Khan, where the government of Punjab, in partnership with the private sector, introduced travel vouchers for beneficiaries of the Benazir Income Support Programme. These vouchers aimed to overcome transportation barriers, allowing beneficiaries to access family planning services more easily at private and public healthcare facilities.

By engaging private sector providers, the initiative ensured beneficiaries could reach quality care without incurring travel expenses, thus improving service accessibility for low-income families. This intervention also included a pay-for-performance element for private sector service providers, who were compensated based on the services they delivered to beneficiaries.

As a result of the programme, the reported contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) increased by 10pc in Rahim Yar Khan alone after pilot testing, underlying the notion that if concerted efforts are made strategically, positive outcomes can spur. However, consistent efforts and policy are required to expand the outreach.

Currently, progress remains slow, with coverage lagging and key indicators stagnating. To make a meaningful impact, Punjab must align family planning policy objectives with purchasing strategies that specify what to buy, how to buy it, and who would benefit. Evidence-based approaches are essential to define the service mix, volume, and provider selection in a way that maximises policy goals and aligns with societal needs.

The writer is currently working on health financing in Pakistan’s development sector.

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, November 25th, 2024

Israel also struck Beirut’s Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs, where intensified bombardment over the last two weeks has coincided with signs of progress in US-led ceasefire talks.

Hezbollah, which has previously vowed to respond to attacks on Beirut by targeting Tel Aviv, said it had launched precision missiles at two military sites in Tel Aviv and nearby.

Police said there were multiple impact sites in the area of Petah Tikvah, on the eastern side of Tel Aviv, and that several people had minor injuries.

Television footage showed an apartment damaged by rocket fire in Petah Tikvah, and video from the medical service MDA showed cars burning.

The Israeli military (IDF) said Hezbollah had fired 170 rockets at Israel on Sunday, of which many were intercepted.

At least four people had been injured by shrapnel.

Video showed a projectile exploding as it smashed into the roof of a building in the northern Israeli city of Nahariya.

The military warned on social media that it planned to target Hezbollah facilities in southern Beirut before strikes which security sources in Lebanon said demolished two apartment blocks.

Afterwards, the IDF said it had hit command centres “deliberately embedded between civilian buildings”.

On Saturday, it had carried out one of its deadliest and most powerful strikes on the centre of Beirut.

Lebanon’s health ministry on Sunday raised the death toll from 20 to 29. It said 84 people had been killed in all on Saturday, taking the death toll to 3,754 since October 2023.

Ceasefire proposal

The Israeli offensive has uprooted more than 1 million people in Lebanon. Israel says its aim is to secure the return home of tens of thousands of people evacuated from its north due to rocket attacks by Hezbollah, which opened fire in support of Hamas at the start of the Gaza war in October 2023.

US mediator Amos Hochstein highlighted progress in negotiations during a visit to Beirut last week, before travelling to meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Israel Katz, and then returning to Washington.

Diplomacy has focused on restoring a ceasefire based on UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended a 2006 Hezbollah-Israel war.

It requires Hezbollah to pull its fighters back around 30 km from the Israeli border, and the Lebanese army to deploy in the buffer zone.

The Lebanese army said at least one soldier had been killed and 18 more injured in an Israeli strike that caused severe damage at an army centre in Al-Amiriya near the southern city of Tyre.

Lebanon’s caretaker prime minister, Najib Mikati, said the attack “represents a direct bloody message rejecting all efforts to reach a ceasefire, strengthen the army’s presence in the south, and implement … 1701”.

Published in Dawn, November 25th, 2024

Lahore’s smog, often termed the “fifth season” of South Asia, has become an annual disaster, cutting an average of five years from the lives of its citizens.

While many residents are urged to take individual precautions like wearing masks, installing air purifiers, and staying indoors, these solutions are impractical for the majority of Pakistanis. What about the daily wage labourer who must spend over 12 hours outdoors? Or the middle-income families who can’t afford costly air purifiers?

Beyond the staggering health toll, Lahore’s smog has a massive economic impact. Productivity losses due to health issues, school closures, and business disruptions add up to billions of rupees every year. Daily wage labourers lose critical income, and families incur significant medical expenses to treat respiratory illnesses. The costs are not just borne by individuals — they ripple through the economy, slowing growth and discouraging investment in the region.

Despite the urgent need for action, the government’s response has been fragmented and ineffective. Artificial rain projects and short-term visibility campaigns dominate headlines but do little to address the core issues. Punjab’s lack of coordination across departments has allowed the crisis to fester, with overlapping but ineffective initiatives yielding only short-term results.

Less polluted air will improve health outcomes, boost productivity, and enhance the city’s appeal to investors and tourists

Smog is not inevitable. Solutions exist and have been successfully implemented in other countries. What’s missing is the political will and coordinated effort to enforce these solutions comprehensively.

Transportation is a contributor to smog, and fixing it requires a multi-pronged approach. Lahore needs an extensive and efficient public transport system to reduce reliance on private vehicles. This would lower emissions while making commuting more affordable. Offering subsidies and incentives for the adoption of electric vehicle (EV) can significantly reduce air pollution. Establishing EV infrastructure like charging stations is key for this transition. The government must move from Euro 2 fuel standards to Euro 6, which minimises the pollutants that cause photochemical smog.

Industrial emissions are a significant source of smog, particularly in Punjab’s manufacturing hubs. All factories should be required to install scrubbers to filter pollutants before they are released into the air. Non-compliant factories must face financial penalties, incentivising cleaner operations. Regular monitoring and public disclosure of industrial emissions can hold corporations accountable.

Agricultural residue burning contributes heavily to smog, especially during the winter months. Addressing this requires supporting farmers. Tools like happy seeders and shredders can help farmers safely remove crop residue without resorting to burning. Crop waste can be converted into biofuel, providing farmers with an additional income stream while reducing pollution.

The government must shift its focus from publicity-driven projects to impactful, evidence-based strategies. This requires breaking down departmental silos and fostering collaboration between the transport, agriculture, environment, and industrial sectors. Without accountability and transparency, even the best plans will fail to deliver results.

Public pressure is also critical. Citizens must demand clean air as a fundamental right, urging leaders to prioritise smog mitigation as a top agenda item. Civil society, non-governmental organisation, and the media can amplify these demands, keeping the spotlight on the urgency of the crisis.

Lahore’s smog isn’t just a public health issue — it’s a litmus test for the government’s commitment to sustainable development. Cleaner air will improve health outcomes, boost productivity, and enhance the city’s appeal to investors and tourists. While upfront investments in public transport, cleaner industries, and agricultural reforms may seem costly, the long-term economic and social benefits far outweigh these expenses.

The citizens of Lahore are paying the price for years of neglect, with their health, livelihoods, and futures on the line. As smog season envelops the city once again, the urgency of the moment cannot be overstated. It’s time to move beyond short-term fixes and implement the systemic changes needed to secure a healthier, more sustainable future for Lahore and its people.

The writer is the head of content at a communications agency

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, November 25th, 2024

Before the amendment, Article 38(f) of the Constitution directed the state to eliminate riba “as early as possible.” However, this amendment has introduced a specific deadline: January 1 2028. The shift in the provision follows the 2022 ruling by the Federal Shariat Court (FSC), which ordered the government to eradicate riba by December 31, 2027. In response, appeals were filed by the State Bank, the National Bank of Pakistan (NBP), and three private banks, questioning the feasibility and immediate implications of the decision. However, after the then finance minister Ishaq Dar expressed the government’s intent to comply, the State Bank and NBP withdrew their appeals, though the private banks’ appeals remain.

The provision raises critical questions: Is a riba-free financial system realistic within Pakistan’s heavily interest-based economy? An economy that is deeply integrated into the global financial system based on riba. Is the government genuinely committed to eliminating riba? Or is this provision primarily a symbolic gesture aimed at appeasing the popular sentiment?

To begin with, the placement of the amendment within Article 38, which is under the “Principles of Policy” chapter, calls for closer examination. The Principles of Policy serve as general guidelines for the state rather than enforceable laws. Violations of these principles cannot even be challenged in courts of law. This means that even if riba continues post-2028, or if some legislation is enacted that allows or supports riba, those actions would remain legally unassailable.

The choice to situate this provision within the Principles of Policy rather than in a more binding section of the Constitution suggests a pragmatic awareness within the government. Given the complexities of the current economic and financial framework, in which interest-based borrowing and lending are deeply entrenched, is the complete eradication of riba more aspirational than achievable?

Increased demand and profitability of Islamic banks are giving hope that rendering Pakistan’s financial system shariah-complaint by 2028 is achievable

While the government has left room for flexibility by not making the elimination of riba legally binding, examining the economic and financial realities is essential to assess whether such a move is feasible. Following the decision of the FSC issued in 2022, the State Bank intensified its efforts to transform the country’s banking system to align with Islamic principles. Leading financial institutions, including major banks like HBL, began establishing Islamic branches, with a view toward full conversion to Shariah-compliant operations by 2027.

The shift has also increasingly inspired consumers to engage in Shariah-compliant financing rather than conventional banking for their everyday needs. The trend is reflected in the sustained growth in profitability of Meezan Bank, which is one of the most prominent Islamic banks in the country.

In the last fiscal year, Meezan Bank reported an after-tax profit of Rs 84.5 billion ($305 million), marking an 88 per cent increase over the previous year. This profit was way higher than banking giants like HBL and NBP, which have a much higher asset base than Meezan Bank. The increased demand and profitability of Islamic banks is giving hopes that the national objective of rendering Pakistan’s financial system riba-free by 2028 is achievable.

The Islamic banking sector has grown significantly in asset value since 2002, with the State Bank placing renewed emphasis on accelerating the sector’s expansion in 2022. However, achieving a fully interest-free economic system remains a challenge, as international borrowing is still predominantly interest-based.

After the ruling by the FSC in 2022, the government has focused on issuing Sukuk (Islamic financial certificates) as an alternative to conventional interest-bearing debt. This shift has already raised Sukuk-based borrowing to Rs6.5 trillion by 2023, signalling a substantial realignment toward Shariah-compliant financing.

In addition, considerable anticipation surrounds the State Bank of Pakistan’s efforts to convert its Pakistan Investment Bonds to Sukuk. Once the debt is converted to asset-backed lending by the government and the State Bank, the prospects of a completely riba-free system will increase significantly.

Overall, the initiatives led by the government and the State Bank are transforming Pakistan’s financial landscape. A riba-free banking environment by 2028 no longer seems like an ambitious, far-fetched ideal but rather an attainable goal. The outlook for Islamic Financial Institutions appears promising, strengthened by the FSC’s directives as well as the recent constitutional support in the form of the 26th Constitutional Amendment. However, the achievement of the goal remains an uphill battle that the government needs to fight with all intent and seriousness.

Mohammad Ibrahim Abro is a lawyer based in Lahore, and Areej Wasi is a researcher currently working on a book on Islamic finance

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, November 25th, 2024

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), being the chief regulator of the banking industry, carries the responsibility of ensuring that banks behave in the larger national economic interest. The government of the day, under the guidance of the parliament, is supposed to work with banks in a manner to pursue its broader economic policies without hurting the key interests of the banking industry.

However, this required cooperation has remained elusive for decades in Pakistan not only in economic affairs but often in every department of national life. Pakistan’s economy, particularly its external sector has historically remained vulnerable to numerous internal and external shocks and managing it well requires lots of balancing acts in local politics as well as in economic affairs.

The current hybrid regime has somehow managed to stabilise the economy under a strict International Monetary Fund (IMF) reforms programme thanks to the support of friendly countries like China, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Qatar. Now, moving from economic stability to growth requires increased willingness and grit on the part of the hybrid rulers and greater maturity on the part of the entire political class.

In the coming months, banks are expected to play a more positive role in economic growth and development, balancing their natural urge to boost profits and the need to lend more to the private sector businesses, especially in energy, technology and agriculture sectors that have the potential to transform the economy.

Bank also need to remain focussed on weaker segments of the private sector like micro, small, and medium enterprises and women-led businesses on whose growth hinges job creation and the overall well-being of the society. How well they do this will determine how soon the economy gets ready for long-term sustainable growth.

According to a recent Dawn report based on the findings of Topline Securities, the banking sector’s gross advances to deposit ratio (ADR) shot up to 44pc as of Oct 25 from 39pc on Sept 27 this year. This happened apparently because some banks that had their ADR running below 50pc began lending aggressively to avoid a 15pc incremental tax at the year’s end.

This is one classic example of how key contributors to the economy behave. Instead of keeping their ADRs at a not-so-high level of 50pc on their own realising the importance of lending to the private sector, banks are moving towards achieving this goal just to avoid additional taxation. This betrays a typical mindset that we often see in the works everywhere in Pakistan where institutes mostly do the right thing under compulsion.

The government began power sector reforms only when the IMF flagged it as a condition for lending funds. But by the time it moved to do this circular debt of the power sector due to massive corruption, mismanagement and inefficiencies had soared to unmanageable levels over the past three decades. The result: today, the total circular debt of the power sector stands above Rs2.4 trillion, and Rs1.8tr worth of these debts also carry interest equal to Karachi Interbank Offered Rate plus three per cent to 4.5pc.

On the one hand, the government keeps lamenting about resource paucity and often cruelly taxes people and businesses while failing to cut costs where they are due. Why, for example, did the total cost of power thefts (plus low recoveries) exceed Rs590bn in the last fiscal year? If nothing concrete is done to address this issue, this cost is projected to increase to Rs637bn, according to recent credible media reports.

Whereas the recent rise in banks’ ADR, regardless of the motive driving it, is a welcome move, the fact remains that the root cause of it, ie banks’ romance with the government bills and bonds, is not waning. According to a recent Topline Securities report, the investment-to-deposit ratio (IDR) of banks gradually rose from only 33pc in 2007 to 88pc in 2023 and then skyrocketed to 94pc in June 2024.

While looking at this absurdly high IDR, one can understand what prompted the government to impose an additional tax on banks whose ADRs remain below 50pc in July. Had the government taken this decision back in 2023 when the average IDR of the banking industry was still below 90pc, banks would have become more disciplined a bit earlier.

But sadly, since 2007, all successive governments have themselves been responsible for encouraging banks to invest more in risk-free treasury bills and bonds, neglecting the credit requirements of the private sector.

After all, it’s the government’s growing need to finance the fiscal gaps that creates greater demand for their bills and bonds in the interbank market and allows banks to continue making huge profits by offering loans to the government.

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, November 25th, 2024

The economics profession stands at a pivotal crossroads. Failures during the 2008 financial crisis, the inflation surge of 2022, and the rise of populism have exposed the limitations of conventional economic thinking. Economists have clung to outdated models, often ignoring the complexities of the real world. Prominent voices like Gita Gopinath, Thomas Piketty, Angus Deaton, and Dani Rodrik argue that the discipline must evolve. This discontent, reflected in the rise of populism, is rooted in economic alienation and the failure of traditional economic prescriptions.

The 2008 financial crisis shattered the economic orthodoxy that had dominated for decades. Economists had long championed deregulation, market self-correction, and the belief that markets would stabilise on their own. When the crisis struck, these assumptions proved dangerously naïve. Financial models, rooted in rational behaviour and efficient markets, failed to predict or prevent the collapse.

In the aftermath, economists implemented bank bailouts, stimulus packages, and ultra-low interest rates to stabilise the economy. However, these measures did little to address the deeper structural issues. Thomas Piketty’s Capital in the Twenty-First Century critiqued how mainstream economics ignored wealth inequality, a key factor in financial instability. While his proposals for global wealth taxes are contentious, his broader argument — that the economic system is inherently flawed — remains compelling.

Increasingly rising populism driven by financial crises reflects growing discontent with traditional economic models that fail to capture real-world intricacies

Mr Piketty notes, “The discipline of economics has yet to get over its childish passion for mathematics and for purely theoretical and often highly ideological speculation, at the expense of historical research and collaboration with the other social sciences. Economists are all too often preoccupied with petty mathematical problems of interest to themselves only. This obsession with mathematics is an easy way of acquiring the appearance of scientificity without having to answer the far more complex questions posed by the world we live in.”

The inflation crisis of 2022 further exposed the limitations of traditional economic frameworks. After decades of low inflation, central banks assumed that inflation was under control. However, when the pandemic disrupted global supply chains and geopolitical tensions escalated, inflation surged to levels not seen in decades.

Initially, inflation was dismissed as “transitory,” only for it to persist, forcing central banks into a reactive stance. The models, designed for an era of low inflation, failed to account for global supply shocks. Ms Gopinath, in her role at the IMF, called for central bankers to adopt humility, acknowledging the limits of their models and underscoring the broader need for economic flexibility in an increasingly interconnected and complex global economy.

Angus Deaton’s work further emphasises this need for humility. In his contributions to the IMF, Mr Deaton has highlighted the critical intersection of economic policy and real-world outcomes, particularly in his analyses of poverty and inequality. He argues for policies that are informed by empirical evidence and that address the underlying issues of economic distress rather than relying solely on traditional economic models.

The failures of mainstream economics have also fuelled the rise of populism. Leaders across the world, capitalising on discontent with globalisation and free-market policies, have drawn support from those who feel economically abandoned. Populism, driven by economic frustration, finds fertile ground where neoliberal policies — focused on deregulation, market liberalisation, and free trade — have resulted in stagnant wages, growing inequality, and job displacement. These issues, laid bare during the 2008 crisis and exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic, have further deepened divisions.

Economists have long fixated on aggregate growth, often at the expense of wealth distribution. This neglect of inequality has contributed to the alienation of the working class, which in turn fuels populist rhetoric. Dani Rodrik has argued that Western economic models, which prioritise deregulation and market liberalisation, often overlook the importance of state intervention and tailored economic policies.

Mr Rodrik’s critique of Western economic orthodoxy offers a vital perspective. In contrast to the neoliberal consensus, he stresses that economic development is not a one-size-fits-all process. He points to China’s rise as an example of successful state-led development, where the country ignored Western advice and embraced selective global integration, infrastructure investment, and state control over key industries. This challenges the prevailing assumption that liberalisation and free-market policies are the only paths to growth.

Yuen Yuen Ang’s work further supports this notion. In her book, How China Escaped the Poverty Trap, she underscores that successful development is not merely about adopting Western prescriptions but about tailoring policies to local conditions. Ms Ang illustrates how state-driven development can yield more inclusive growth than reliance on markets alone, emphasising the need for context-specific strategies that consider cultural and institutional realities.

One thing is clear: traditional economic models must evolve. Mr Piketty’s focus on wealth inequality and Mr Deaton’s work on poverty suggest that policies must address the political, social, and economic dimensions of economies — issues that mainstream economics has often overlooked.

As Joseph Stiglitz has argued, “The failure to recognise the imperfections of markets has led to unnecessary crises, which could have been avoided had the economic models been more realistic.” This critique of market fundamentalism is particularly relevant today, as economists continue to rely on outdated models that fail to capture the intricacies of the global economy.

The writer is former head of Citigroup’s emerging markets investments and author of ‘The Gathering Storm’

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, November 25th, 2024