Mulgrave by-election 2023

Lying in Melbourne's outer south-east, the electorate of Mulgrave covers 35.5 square kilometres and includes the suburb of Mulgrave along with parts of Wheelers Hill, Springvale, Noble Park and Dandenong North. The electorate includes the Sandown Racecourse and Entertainment Centre, Springvale Crematorium and Necropolis, and the new suburb that was once Waverley AFL Park.

Mulgrave existed in a previous incarnation as a Liberal electorate between 1958 and 1967. It returned to the state's electoral map in 2002 replacing the seat of Dandenong North.

Daniel Andrews has been the only member for the seat since it adopted its new name in 2002. The redistribution ahead of the 2014 election cut his margin from 8.5% to an estimated 2.4%, but Andrews easily overcame the boundary change to win re-election with a 2.1% swing in his favour. The 2018 election took his margin into safe territory after an 8.2% swing to Labor before there was a 4.9% swing against him in 2022.

Last November Andrews won with 51.0% of the first preference vote so a distribution of preferences was not required. Independent Ian Cook finished second, narrowly ahead of the Liberal candidate. Given preferences were not required to determine the winning candidate, the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) chose not to re-throw the indicative Labor-Liberal preference count conducted on election night. In line with its long-standing policy on when to re-throw preferences, the VEC continued with its two-party preference throw for information purposes. Some observers unaware of this policy, and ignoring that preferences were not required to determine the winner, suggested there was a conspiracy to hide the swing against Andrews that would have been revealed by a preference distribution between Andrews and Cook.

In the months after the election, as part of a project analysing informal voting, a full distribution of preferences was undertaken in Mulgrave and other seats. What it revealed was that Danial Andrews actually had a smaller swing against him with Cook as the final candidate after preferences than against a Liberal. Andrews' margin versus Cook was 10.8% compared to 10.2% versus Liberal. But to repeat, neither preference count mattered as Andrews polled a majority of the first preference vote.

The party contest in Mulgrave is certain to be the same as last November. The race after the distribution of preferences will be between Labor's Eden Foster and whichever of Liberal Courtney Mann and Independent Ian Cook finishes second. It may be that preferences from the other seven candidates will need to be distributed before we know which of Cook or Mann will be in the final count against Foster.

All how-to-vote material must be registered in Victoria. Candidates can recommend preferences, but they cannot direct or control preferences. Preferences are always counted according to the numbers written on each ballot paper by the voter. The how-to-vote material registered for the by-election make the following preference recommendations.

• To Labor - from Greens (at preference 4), Victorian Socialists (4), Animal Justice (5)
• To Liberal - from Cook (5)
• To Cook - from Liberal (3)
• To Liberal then Cook - from Theodossopoulou (2 then 4)
• To Cook then Liberal - from Libertarian (2 then 4), Family First (3 then 5)
• No recommendation - Sustainable Australia

The ballot draw disadvantages Labor compared to the state election. Last November Daniel Andrews drew top position, an advantage given there were 14 candidates on the ballot paper. For the by-election, Labor's Eden Foster has drawn position eight from 10, below both her main opponents with Cook at three and Mann at five. This removes Labor's positional 'donkey' vote advantage last November, plus the slight preferences drift gained by being higher on a ballot paper. Positional preference flow will favour Cook slightly over Mann.

Links to copies of the how-to-vote material are included with the candidate profiles further down this page.

With Daniel Andrews off stage, the Mulgrave by-election will show who's still paying attention, Richard Willingham, ABC News, 12 November.

‘Doing it my way’: The battle is on in Daniel Andrews’ old seat of Mulgrave, Annika Smethurst, The Age (partial pay-wall), 11 November

'Bittersweet' court victory for I Cook Foods owners in 'slug gate' listeria outbreak saga, Kristian Silva, ABC News, 13 November. (Report on the judgment in candidate Ian Cook's court case against the closure of his business by the Health Department. The Court ruled his business had not received procedural fairness in being temporarily closed by Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton, but the decision did not display 'reckless indifference' so compensation was not ordered.)

Win for ‘slug gate’ owner after judge finds business shutdown invalid, Erin Pearson, The Age (partial pay-wall), 13 November. (Another report on the judgment in Cook's case.)

Labor's two-party preferred results in Mulgrave, and before that under the seat's former name Dandenong North, have been consistently five to ten percentage points stronger than Labor's state-wide two-party preferred vote. The size of the gap has depended on the seat's electoral boundaries.

Mulgrave crosses a political and social divide in south-eastern Melbourne. It may not be as stark a divide as crossing the Yarra from Richmond to Kew, but the Liberal voting landscape of eastern Melbourne clearly fades away as it passes through Mulgrave, replaced by strong Labor voting patterns around Dandenong, Noble Park and Springvale.

The map below highlights the district's changing electoral boundaries. You can display the boundaries for different elections by clicking the boxes.

At elections from 1985 to 1999 the electorate ran from Mulgrave to Dandenong North and was known as Dandenong North. Dandenong North was removed at the redistribution before the 2002 election and the seat was re-named after its new geographic centre in Mulgrave. At the 2014 election the boundaries moved north again to include more of Wheelers Hill. This was partly reversed with the current boundaries first used last November that brought parts of Springvale into the seat.

The boundary changes are reflected in the chart of past results below, with gaps in the red line for Mulgrave reflecting changes wrought by the three most recent redistributions. The first based on 1999 results reflects the cut in Labor's majority as the boundaries shifted north and the seat was re-named Mulgrave. The second gap based on 2010 results reflect Mulgrave's second shift north, cutting Labor's margin from 8.5% in 2020 to an estimated 2.4% going into the 2014 election. The third gap based on 2018 results reflects the 3% boost in Labor's margin for the 2022 election, more than cancelled out by the swing against Labor in 2022.

Results 1985-2022

(Victories by a party of government are indicated by thick coloured underlining.)

Labor recorded two-party preferred majorities at 19 of the 20 polling places used at the 2022 election. The Labor vote rose from 48.9% at St Justin's Primary School in Wheelers Hill to 74.4% at the West Campus of Spring Parks Primary School in Springvale. As the map below shows, the Labor vote rises as you traverse the electorate from Wheelers Hill in the north-east to Springvale in the south-west.

(Click on polling place for results)

Only 35.0% of votes were cast on election day in 2022 compared to 47.9% of votes cast as pre-polls and another 11.7% by post. The Labor two-party preferred vote was 59.3% on polling day, 60.3% with early votes, and unusually for the Labor Party, stronger at 62.3% with postal votes.

While the above map and chart show Labor versus Liberal results, Independent Ian Cook finished second ahead of the Liberal Party. A break-down of polling place and vote type results between Labor and Cook is not available. However, as Labor's margin was only 0.6% different between the two-party preferred result and the two-candidate result versus Cook, there would be little difference to the above analysis if vote for Cook replaced the Liberal vote.

Last November, preferences from 11 candidates representing 13.7% of the vote were distributed to the point where only three candidates remained. At that point Andrews (ALP) led with 21,507 or 56.7%, Cook (IND) was second on 8,383 or 22.1%, and Piastrino (LIB) was third with 8,034 or 21.2%. Cook was in second place 349 votes ahead of the Liberal. The preferences of the other 11 candidates had split 41.2% to Labor, 29.6% to Cook and 29.2% to Liberal.

We have two preference tallies to measure the final preference split for 12 excluded candidates. With the Liberal excluded, the 12 candidate preference flow was 31.6% to Labor, 68.4% to Cook. With Cook excluded the 12 candidate preference flow was 29.4% to Labor, 70.6% to Liberal.

Figures at end of pre-poll voting on Friday 17 November.

A total of 5,321 postal vote applications were received, down from 7,026 at the state election in November, 11.3% of enrolled voters compared to 14.9%. So far 3,212 postal vote envelopes have been returned representing 6.8% of enrolment or 60.4% of applications. Validity checks mean that not all returned postal envelopes result in ballot papers admitted to the count. Last November postal vote ballot papers represented only around 70% of applications and 11.7% of the total votes counted.

A total of 15,873 pre-poll votes were cast representing 33.7% of enrolled voters. Last November there were 19,830 pre-poll votes representing 42.2% of enrolment. Of the state election pre-polls, 11,372 were taken at pre-poll centres in Mulgrave and 8,458 in other districts. As usual the final Friday was the biggest day for pre-poll voting with 2,911 pre-poll votes taken. Assuming a turnout of around 80%, that means around half of votes will be taken on polling day compared to only 35% last November.

Ethelyn King

Libertarian Party

King grew up, attended school and obtained her first job in Mulgrave. She was the Liberal Democrat candidate for Chisholm at the 2022 Federal election and was on the party's South East Metropolitan ticket at the November 2022 state election.

Website How-to-vote

Celeste Ackerly

Sustainable Australia

Ackerly has a BA with a major in geography. She is now undertaking graduate studies in environment and climate emergency. The main focus of her research has been Indigenous sustainability methods because this links back to her Aboriginal ancestry, her passion and love for Aboriginal (Trawlwoolway) culture.

Website How-to-vote

Ian Cook

Independent

Cook ran a local catering business, 'I Cook Foods', that was shut down by the Health Department in 2019 after a listeria outbreak. He has made a number of allegations about why the business was shut in an alleged scandal dubbed 'SlugGate' by the media, so named over a slug found in an inspection of the business premises that Cook claimed was planted. (See further reading above on the judgment in Cook's favour.) Cook contested Mulgrave at the 2022 election when polls of very doubtful authority were reported in some media outlets suggesting Cook could defeat the Premier. Cook did finish second on first preferences but fell well short of victory.

Website How-to-vote

Jane Foreman

Family First

Previously contested Mulgrave at last November's state election.

Website How-to-vote

Courtney Mann

Liberal

Mann works on the staff of Opposition Leader John Pesutto in a policy role. He previously worked as an adviser or other Liberal MPs including Gordon Rich Phillips. Mann has lived in the area for 25 years and was the Liberal candidate for Mulgrave at the 2010 state election.

Website How-to-vote

Kelly Cvetkova

Victorian Socialists

Cvetkova describes herself as having been a socialist for many years and has participated in campaigns against the resurgence of the far right and neo-Nazis and for migrant and refugee rights. She has fought for more public housing and helped organise community solidarity for strikes at workplaces across Melbourne. Cvetkova contested the northern Melbourne seat of Thomastown at the 2022 state election, finishing third on first preferences with 7.7% of the vote.

Website How-to-vote

Rhonda Garad

Australian Greens

Garad is a health professional currently working as a lecturer and researcher at Monash University with a PhD in health policy. For 25 years Garad has lived and raised her family in the City of Greater Dandenong and was elected to the Council in 2020 representing Keysborough South Ward. She was previously a Green candidate for Dandenong at the 2018 Victorian election and the local seat of Bruce at the 2019 Federal election.

Website How-to-vote

Eden Foster

Australian Labor Party

Foster has lived in the Mulgrave area for more than 40 years. Raised by her single mother in Springvale and Noble Park, Foster has worked as a school psychologist and has a Bachelor of Social Science and Master of Psychology. She was elected to the City of Greater Dandenong representing Yarraman Ward in 2020 and was elected Mayor in 2023. She is currently on leave to contest the by-election.

Website How-to-vote

Tina Theodossopoulou

Independent

Currently works for her family business, Structural Landscaping. Has previously worked in Media and Hospitality. Also contested Mulgrave at last year's state election when she polled 305 votes.

How-to-vote

Bronwyn Currie

Animal Justice Party

Currie is the Convenor of the Animal Justice Party Victoria. She was the party's lead Victorian Senate candidate at the 2022 Federal election and lead candidate for South Eastern Metropolitan Region at last November's state election.

Website How-to-vote

Information on candidates and how-to-vote material can be sent to

Percentage votes by Party

Labor 43.2, Liberal 23.3, Greens 5.8, Legalise Cannabis 4.9, Liberal Democrats 3.6, Labour DLP 3.5, Family First 2.4, Freedom Party 2.1, Derryn Hinch's Justice Party 1.7%, Pauline Hanson's One Nation 1.6%, Sach Dan Andrews Restore Democracy 1.3%, United Australia Party 1.2%, Health Australia Party 1.1%, Animal Justice Party 1.0%, Others (9 groups) 3.3%.