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Pro Football Journal: All-Decade
Showing posts with label All-Decade. Show all posts
Showing posts with label All-Decade. Show all posts

Sunday, June 6, 2021

The 21st Century Team (So Far)

OPINION
By John Turney 

We are twenty years into this new century, enough to take a look back at the top players of that era, essentially not an All-Decade team but an All-Two-Decade Team, if you will.

There were some close calls at some positions which we've noted. 

These are the base offense and defense. On third down Kyle Jusczczyk goes out and Welker would come in.

On defense, nose tackle Wilfork would go out in nickel and Woodson would play slot with Miller playing the left edge and Watt sinking to play inside. Woodson could also play the "money backer" spot that we see so often today—the hybrid safety/linebacker position if we wanted to stay in sub all the time. 

Tuesday, April 7, 2020

Critique of the 2010s All-Decade Team

By John Turney
After some research, this is what we believe to be what would be the 2010s All-Decade First-team if the NFL chose to release it, but it cannot be verified since the NFL won't release the voting. Would it win a criminal case it court (beyond any reasonable doubt)? No. Could it win a civil case (preponderance of the evidence)? Yes, absolutely.

So, we will take a took at our de facto First-teams and give our thoughts. We reserve the right to edit our surmise as we get more information.

Offense
WR–Antonio Brown, Calvin Johnson
Larry Fitzgerald, Julio Jones
No room for criticism here. 

TE–Rob Gronkowski
Travis Kelce
No beefs here, either

T–Joe Thomas, Jason Peters, Tyron Smith
 Joe Staley
We know Thomas was unanimous and Smith had many "blue" seasons but we originally thought Jason Peters probably edged him out. However, after further poking around we think this is just too close to call and we will never know who was second in the voting and who was third. Andrew Whitworth likely got support as did Mitchell Schwartz.

G–Marshal Yanda, Zack Martin
Logan Mankins, Jahri Evans
Yanda was unanimous and Martin had to be close. Evans and Mankins were All-Pros early in the decade. There could be some quibbles with the Second-team but like the tackles these four are solid.

C–Maurkice Pouncey
Alex Mack
No gripes here, though Jason Kelce probably had support but this is a solid pair. We'd have gone with Mack first.

QB–Tom Brady
 Aaron Rodgers
Some are saying Drew Brees was a snub but in the 2010s Rodgers has a ring, a higher winning percentage, two MVPs and a higher passer rating. He deserves the Second-team over Brees.

RB–Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy
Frank Gore, Marshawn Lynch,
Peterson was unanimous and McCoy was right behind him in stats. The backups are solid, too.

Flex–Darren Sproles
Wish there had been a fullback here to go with Sproles but that is not on the committee that is not the NFL/HOF in the formatting of the team.

Defense
DE– J.J. Watt, Cameron Jordan
Calais Campbell, Julius Peppers
Campbell and Watt are outside guys in base and would move inside in nickel, though later in the decade, Watt stayed outside. Both good choices as are the Second-teamers. Cameron Heyward would maybe edge out Peppers id we had to put Chandler Jones as a rushbacker. Robert Quinn had a good decade, though had some injuries. Cameron Wade likely had some Second-team support as well. 

DT–Aaron Donald, Geno Atkins
Fletcher Cox, Ndamukong Suh
If one were to pick the top four 4-3 tackles these are it. We'd have preferred to see a shade tackle (nose tackle) like a Snacks Harrison or a Linval Joseph or a Haloti Ngata or a Vince Wilfork but gain that is a formatting issue and not a problem with the voting.

ILB–Luke Kuechly, Bobby Wagner 
Patrick Willis
The ballot we saw prior to the voting had two inside linebackers and two outside linebackers so we can assume this was a formatting issue. Really, there should only be one of these guys one the First-team.

OLB–Von Miller
Khalil Mack, Chandler Jones
Miller was unanimous so we know he was First-team. We wish (again, formatting of the team) there was room for a WILL 'backer like Lavonte David or Thomas Davis or even Anthong Barr, players like that.

CB–Patrick Peterson, Richard Sherman
Darrelle Revis
Our sense is this was super-close. If there were a fourth we suspect Stephon Gilmore or Aqib Talib would be the other Second-teamer.

S–Earl Thomas, Eric Weddle
Eric Berry
Kam Chancellor would likely be a fourth if there were a full Second-team, he could easily have been one of the top three. 

DB–Chris Harris
Tyrann Mathieu
Again, solid picks

Special Teams
P–Johnny Hekker
Shane Lechler
Lechler had the honors but Thomas Morstead had better numbers. Better NYOA, better net, better Inside-the-20 to Touchback ratio, fewer kicks return for scores, you name it.

K–Justin Tucker
Stephen Gostkowski
Tucker was unanimous. They pretty much nailed this one.

PR– Darren Sproles
Tyreek Hill
Hill is dominant, but he only played three years in the decade. Is that enough? There is precedent for it. In the 1970s Earl Campbell played two seasons and made the Second-team. Butkus played four and was hobbled for two of them and made the First-team. Sproles, though, we think, outpolled Hill but it's a curious position. For more on this read on through the end of the post.

However, Devin Hester led the 2010s in return average and had 7 punt returns for touchdowns. He should have been the First-team punt returner. If Hill met the minimum seasons (whatever that may be) then he should still be behind Hester.

KR–Cordarrelle Patterson
Devin Hester
The Patterson pick is money. Hester does not belong here. He was 18th in kick return average for the decade (among those with 50 or more returns) and had just one kick return for a score. Not good enough. Jacoby Jones should have been the backup. 

Coach
Bill Belichick
Pete Carroll
No reason to complain. Andy Reid's lat super Bowl win gives him some cred here, but Carroll is also a solid choice with two NFC championships and one SB win.

So, what's the final tally?

Offense—A+
Defense—A (no love for NT or WILL cost the "+")
Special Teams—B (dinged for Hester and Morstead)
Coach—A+
Overall Grade—A

Now, is it fair to ding the Selection Committee for not picking Hester, especially? Probably not. Why? Because they probably DID pick Hester as the First-team punt returner and DIDN'T pick him as the Second-team kick returner.

Again, based on some research and poking around, it just didn't make sense that the voters, who got nearly everything right got this so wrong. So, while there is no way to prove it short of the NFL releasing the voting totals but all we can say is there is something hinkey about the voting.

We are working to get more information so stay tuned, but dollars to donuts Hester was voted as the top punt returner.

Additionally, the blank ballot we saw in March included a special teams player, which would have likely gone to Matthew Slater. Why was that not included?  Could it be the NFL priority was to have a 53-man squad to match the number of players on a roster for the decade? And if so, it's really 52 since Sproles takes two slots. So there was room for Slater. As we said, hinkey.

Alas, we have not looked closely but this may be the best All-Decade team ever. There are not headscratchers like in the 1960s (Larry Morris, Carroll Dale) or 1980s (Chuck Noll, John Anderson) and the like. From the 1920s-1950s there were multiple question marks. The 1970s, 1990s, and 2000s were very solid (going from memory).

So, to the Hall of Fame Selection Committee—Well Done

To the NFL who won't release the First-team for first time in 40 years—Come on, man

Monday, April 6, 2020

Combined All-Decade Teams - 2010s

By John Turney
Because we think more sources are better than one we try to give readers a broader perspective on All-Decade teams than just the Hall of Fame's All-Decade Teams

In the past, we've shown various souces for All-Decade teams

Here is a list of the links—
1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s

Here is the combined team for the 2010s from the various sources we've found for the 2010s.

Sources:
The Hall of Fame has not yet (and may never) release a First- or Second-team. we've listed a couple of obvious choices and the unanimous ones. It really didn't make a difference in the final tally.

Here is the complete official NFL All-Decade team—

And for comparison's sake here is our own All-Decade team—

Pro Football Hall of Fame 2010s All-Decade Team

By John Turney
So far there are no First- or Second-team designations though the players in bold are said to be unanimous choices. Since 1970 there have been such separations, not a "participation trophy" approach.

It makes us curious as to the change. In the past there have been times when a Second-team selection got one vote and a First-team selection was unanimous or nearly unanimous. So there is a difference and that difference needs to be recognized.

We'd want to know who dominated the voting and who "squeaked in".

Nonetheless, here are the 53 selections to the 2010s All-Decade Team announced alphabetically.

Offense
WR – Antonio Brown, Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones
TE – Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce
T – Jason Peters, Tyron Smith, Joe Staley, Joe Thomas
G – Jahri Evans, Logan Mankins, Zack Martin, Marshal Yanda
C – Alex Mack, Maurkice Pouncey
QB – Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers
RB – Frank Gore, Marshawn Lynch, LeSean McCoy, Adrian Peterson
Flex – Darren Sproles

Defense
DE – Calais Campbell, Cameron Jordan, Julius Peppers, J.J. Watt
DT – Geno Atkins, Fletcher Cox, Aaron Donald, Ndamukong Suh
LB – Chandler Jones, Luke Kuechly, Khalil Mack, Von Miller, Bobby Wagner, Patrick Willis
CB – Patrick Peterson, Darrelle Revis, Richard Sherman
S – Eric Berry, Earl Thomas, Eric Weddle
DB – Chris Harris, Tyrann Mathieu

Special Teams
P – Johnny Hekker, Shane Lechler
K – Stephen Gostkowski, Justin Tucker
PR – Tyreek Hill, Darren Sproles
KR – Devin Hester, Cordarrelle Patterson

Coaches
Bill Belichick, Pete Carroll

Tuesday, February 4, 2020

PFJ's 2010s All-Decade Team

By John Turney 
For the 2010s All-Decade, we went with three receivers and added a fifth defensive back who could play slot corner as well as their normal position.

"Sink end" is a defensive end who moved in passing situations much of the time. Watt and Campbell were the best at that spot (power end if you will). Cameron Jordan nosed Chander Jones who played some rush backer, too. Michael Bennett is a strong honorable mention as a sink end. Cameron Wake's 95 sacks in the decade deserve a mention as well, though we don't think he was effective making plays against the run when run plays "showed". Fletcher Cox is also an honorable mention.

We didn't ignore nose tackles as the Hall of Fame will, we picked Snacks Harrison. Also, we picked a Will 'backer, Lavonte David. The Hall of Fame will pick two middle linebackers we are sure. It's too bad, David is one of the top three linebackers of the 2010s we believe.

Stephon Gilmore's surge in 2018 and 2019 secured him the Second-team corner slot.
Player of the DecadeTom Brady

Defensive Player of the Decade—JJ Watt

Runners up—Aaron Rodgers and Aaron Donald

Wednesday, August 14, 2019

AFL All-Decade Team Critique

LOOKING BACK
By John Turney
Recently we've posted our critiques about the NFL's All-Decade Teams. We've completed the 1950s, 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s. Today we tackle the 1960s AFL selections.
These posts are dedicated to the proposition that humans are fallible, especially in collectives, so while the HOF/NFL All-Decade teams are great they are not necessarily the be-all and end-all. Mistakes were made, players who had two seasons of service in a given decade have been on All-Decade teams. Some players were actually better in a different decade than they were in the one in which they were selected. And there were some ommissions as well.

To be fair, much more information is available now in some areas than existed at the time so there are reasons for the oddities. Our posts are done not to criticize but to illuminate—picking these kinds of teams presents real intellectual challenges so no one should be too hard one someone else's picks.

That said, here is the Official AFL All-Time Team:
Going from bottom up, we'd say Hank Stram deserved the top coaching spot over Ewbank. Stram won three AFL titles and one Super Bowl. To us, Ewbank and Gillman would be a tossup for Second-team.

Jerrell Wilson is an okay pick, in the NFL, after the merger he got a lot of punts blocked. Paul Maguire would be a better choice for Second-team. he was a good directional punter with a high net average.
It's odd that Jan Stenerud was omitted. We can only guess that it was because he only played three years in the decade. In our book that is not really enough to qualify, but if that was the reason then why was George Webster First-team? He only played three years in the 1960s/history of the AFL.

So by their rules, Stenerud should have been the top pick. 

The secondary looks good. We'd leave that as is. There are a few other names that could be mentioned it it's a quibble. 
We mentioned Webster's peak was worthy but were his three years of service more valuable than, say, Grantham's ten or Stratton's eight seasons?
Dan Conners only started for 3½ seasons in the 1960s. Again, couldn't a better, longer-tenured player have been found? Perhaps Archie Matsos or Sherrill Headrick? We think either of those two deserved the All-1960s more than Conners and when we picked our team we went with Headrick.
Jerry Mays and Gerry Philbin are the official ends and there is nothing wrong with those picks. As a peak performer though we'd have chosen Earl Faison. As a peak player, the best in league history was Rich Jackson but he has the "years of service issue" as well. he was a starter for only three seasons in the 1960s. Jackson does make the Second-team, so years of service wasn't an issue for the voters at the time, just too few of them, apparently, didn't think Jackson was one of the top two defensive ends in the league's history. 

If we go by the "three seasons is enough" rule of thumb, out top two ends would be Faison and Jackson and the Second-team would be Philbin and McDole with Ike Lassiter tied with McDole. As far is pure production few AFL ends were as solid as Lassiter. If we follow out philosophy Jackson would not be eligible so Philbin and Faison would tops Mays and McDole next.
Sestak would be one of our tackles. Ernie Ladd would be the other based on peak and Buck Buchanan would remain Second-team. But, if we went by consistency we'd put Buchanan on the First-team. Neither pick would be wrong. Then Houston Antwine would be dropped to Second-team. Bud McFadin and Keating could be honorable mentions. 


We think the selection committee nailed the offensive line, both First- and Second-team. There could be a quibble or two but really, it's a job well done there.

The tight ends are solid as well. Alworth and Maynard great picks for the receivers, Art Powell is worthy, too as is Charlie Hennigan. Lionel Taylor would nose out Hennigan on our Second-team but as we mention, Hennigan was worthy.

The running backs are hard. The AFL had a lot of good backs with short careers or limited years of peak production. So, while the official picks are not wrong we just think there could have been better picks.

For the First-team We'd have gone with Cookie Gilchrist for his rushing titles and ring. Also on the First-team, we think Abner Haynes edges Clem Daniels. We'd drop Daniels to the Second-team.
To back up Gilchrist we'd pick Jim Nance.

We realize we short Paul Lowe but we think he's the third-best halfback in AFL history, not the first. And Keith Lincoln is our third-best fullback, edging Matt Snell.
That leaves quarterback. And it's easy. No offense to Jets fans but Dawson has more championships, better stats, and more "honors". Namath had more pure passing talent, but Dawson did it longer and should have been the First-team quarterback. Namath, we'd put Second-team and we'd make Jack Kemp an honorable mention. 
So, we'd as fans to always use All-Decade teams as a good benchmark or measuring stick for a player, but don't just rubber-stamp the official teams, do your own research and make sure the picks were right, or as right as they can be. Look for errors and ommissions because as long as humans pick them, there will be some errant picks and we think we've illustrated that in this series. 

edited 8/15

Friday, June 21, 2019

A Preview the 2010s All-Decade Team

LOOKING AHEAD
By John Turney

After the upcoming season, the NFL's 100th, the Hall of Fame selection committee will pick and All-Decade team. With nine of the ten seasons in the books, we know some of the picks will be 'chalk' but others are open.

Here are some thoughts:
Offense
Center
This one is wide open. Ryan Kalil, Maurkice Pouncey, Jason Kelce, and Alex Mack would be the leading candidate and like the First- and Second-team All-2010s will come from this foursome.

Possibly the most effective center of the decade is Brandon Linder, but he's missed too much time. Nick Mangold retired after 2016 and has just enough seasons (in our view) to qualify, but recentism will likely keep him out of the mix. Max Unger would have a shot if he's First-team All-Pro in 2019 but it would be a long shot. Travis Frederick's illness will likely keep him out of the mix.

So, we think this is too close to predict and we need the 2019 season to be completed to see if anyone separates himself.

Here are the complete All-Pro centers since 2010—









Guards
Zack Martin has been the best guard in the NFL since he entered NFL in 2014. If he has his usual year in 2019, i.e. plays well and is injury-free he will have one of the guard slots. He's been as dominant a guard as Dwight Stephenson was a center in his six NFL years.

We think  Marshal Yanda will be the other guard. He was a "blue" guard early in the 2010s then has been a highly rated player in a few of the last six years as well

On the Second-team we would suspect Jahri Evans, with what he did from 2010-14, will edge out some of the others.  David DeCastro will always get votes (all Steeler interior linemen seem to get them, whether they deserve them or now) and will likely be Second-team.

Tackles
Tyron Smith will be one of the tackles and Joe Thomas will be the other. Thomas played eight seasons in the 2010s and that's plenty.

The harder picks are the Second-teamers. We could see some votes going to Trent Williams, Joe Staley, Jason PetersAndrew Whitworth and/or Duane Brown. We'd imagine whoever has the best 2019 would be the one(s) to steal a few votes from Thomas and Smith.

Tight End
Rob Gronkowski is an easy pick here. If there is a Second-teamer then Travis Kelce (recent charge), Jimmy Graham (excellent first part of the decade) and/or Jason Witten (solid all decade) could snare a vote or two. The same may also be true of Greg Olsen.

Quarterback
Tom Brady and his three rings have this locked up. Second-team will likely be Aaron Rodgers (1-title, 2 MVPs, decade-high 104.7 passer rating). Drew Brees could get some votes, too.

Fullback
This position, added to the 2000s team, may not be represented on the 2010s team. The Hall of Fame may have a "Flex" position—which is not a position. We don't know but the silliness in these things seems to grow over time.

If there is a fullback we see Kyle Juszczyk is the likely top vote-getter likely edging Mike Tolbert but it could go the other way. Both are fine candidates.

John Kuhn, Anthony ShermanJames Develin and others would also garner some support.

Running back
Adrian Peterson and LeSean McCoy are the backs with the highest 'peak' in the 2010s. We think they would be the leading candidates at running back.

Others who might populate the Second-teams would be from among this group:  Frank Gore, Marshawn Lynch, Matt Forte, DeMarco Murray, Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, et al.

Wide Receiver
Antonio Brown and Julio Jones stand out and have already done enough to be the wide-outs. 

Larry Fitzgerald, we think, will be one of the Second-teamers. A.J. Green and Demaryius Thomas would be fighting for the last slot, we think. Calvin Johnson was the best WR, but we are struggling with him playing only six years in the decade when others played longer. He's 11th in reception for the decade. But peak-wise Johnson is tops. We'll see how it shakes out as others put distance between them and Megatron in terms of numebrs

Defense
Defensive end
J.J. Watt has a lock on one of the First-team spots. The other? Hard to know.

It could be Calais CampbellCameron Jordan, Julius Peppers, Cameron Wake, Chandler Jones (played some rush backer), or even Michael Bennett will get support. Jordan is at the top of his game and with Watt hurt recently he's been (in our view) the best DE over the last three seasons, though Campbell is close. 

Defensive tackle
Aaron Donald, with two Defensive Player of the Year Awards will take one spot. 

Like defensive end, the rest of the votes will be scattered among Ndamukong Suh, Geno Atkins, Fletcher Cox, Gerald McCoy, and perhaps Haloti Ngata. We would vote for Donald at three-technique and Damon Harrison at shade tackle. But we doubt any other voters will recognize a run stuffer. They will go for the sack guys like Suh or Atkins, etc.

Linebacker
Like always the HOF will let voters pick the top three linebackers, regardless of position. And that means the 2010s linebackers will be Luke Kuechly, Bobby Wagner, and Von Miller. Two middle linebackers and one rush backer. The Second-team will likely be Khalil Mack and maybe NaVorro Bowman and then likely another rushbacker like Justin Houston or someone like him.

The guy who will get screwed will be Lavonte David. He has the most run stuffs of any outside linebacker and can rush the passer, but usually got overlooked for postseason honors.
Our First-team would be Middle—Leuchly, Outside—David, Rush—Miller. 

Second-team would be Middle—Wagner, Outside—Sean Lee (played some middle) or Thomas Davis, Rush—Mack or Terrell Suggs) would need to see the 2019 seasons of each).

Cornerbacks
Richard Sherman's fine 2018 locked this slot up in our view. Patrick Peterson's recent issues could raise some doubts, otherwise, we'd say he'd have been one of the two First-teamers. Darrelle Revis (tailed off at the end), Aqib Talib, Chris Harris have shots. Peak value would be Revis but his decade's prowess is front-loaded from 2010-15. Stephon Gilmore, with a career-year in 2019 could leap up to the top four.

Safety
Earl Thomas and Eric Weddle will likely be First-team, Thomas for sure. Eric Berry's peak is a clear top-two but he's only had five relatively injury free seasons. When well, he's Hell. If voters see the five seasons (six if 2019 is solid) as enough, he should be First-team. Harrison Smith should be one of the top four as well.

Kam Chancellor and Malcolm Jenkins will likely garner votes.

The selection committee doesn't separate strong and free safeties, so it's not a question of that. We'd like them to do that but in this decade there have been more 'twin safeties' in terms of assignments. So once again, we'll see how it shakes out in the voting next February.

Special Teams
Kicker
Justin Tucker is the top kicker. Stephen Gostkowski and Adam Vinatieri will get some votes but Matt Bryant and Robbie Gould have had better decades. However, hopefully, voters will consider distance, onsides, kickoffs, and conditions (dome, etc.) All things considered, Tucker is the best ever at this juncture and should be First-team. For Second-team there could be a good case for several kickers.

Punter
Johnny Hekker is the best. Andy Lee and Shane Lechler will get support by voters who may not look too closely at the metrics. But even though he has the "dome advantage" the second-best punter of the decade is Thomas Morstead. After that, you could pick anyone one of three-four others and not be wrong.

Kick Returner
Cordarrelle Patterson is the clear choice for First-team. Jacoby Jones probably had the second-best decade, going by touchdowns, average and 'honors'.

Punt Returner
Devin Hester played seven seasons in the 2010s and that's enough to qualify. He had seven TDs and the best average per punt return in the decade.

Tyreek Hill is pretty amazing but has off-field issues. So absent him, Marcus Sherels and Darren Sproles may get a vote or two, enough to secure a Second-team slot.

Special teamer
The HOF has never added this position to their All-Decade teams just in case they do we'd go with Matthew Slater first and then Justin Bethel. Michael Thomas would get consideration, too.

Coach
Bill Belichick will again be the coach (he was the 2000s coach). His backup? Pete Carroll? Andy Reid? If someone who has had a good decade so far wins a ring gets to the big game it would help his case. That might include Mike Tomlin or John Harbaugh or Sean Payton or even Mike McCarthy.

I think right now we'd say Carroll but we could be wrong and don't really care that much about the coach.