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{"id":356167,"date":"2023-03-10T06:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-03-10T11:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/?post_type=fte_features&p=356167"},"modified":"2024-01-16T12:47:03","modified_gmt":"2024-01-16T17:47:03","slug":"2022-election-polling-accuracy","status":"publish","type":"fte_features","link":"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/2022-election-polling-accuracy\/","title":{"rendered":"The Polls Were Historically Accurate In 2022"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t

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Polling<\/a><\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t

The Polls Were Historically Accurate In 2022<\/h1>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
We\u2019ve updated our pollster ratings.<\/h2>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
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By Nathaniel Rakich<\/a><\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tMar. 10, 2023, at 6:00 AM\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/time>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t
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PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER \/ GETTY IMAGES<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/figcaption>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/figure>\n\n\t\t\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Let\u2019s give a big round of applause to the pollsters. Measuring public opinion is, in many ways, harder than ever<\/a> \u2014 and yet, the polling industry just had one of its most successful election cycles in U.S. history. Despite a loud chorus of naysayers claiming that the polls were either underestimating Democratic support<\/a> or biased yet again against Republicans<\/a>, the polls were more accurate in 2022 than in any cycle since at least 1998, with almost no bias toward either party.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Of course, some pollsters were more accurate than others. And today, we\u2019ve updated the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings<\/a> to account for each pollster\u2019s performance in the 2022 cycle. Our ratings are letter grades that we assign to each pollster based on historical accuracy and transparency. (You can read exactly how we calculate pollster ratings here<\/a>.) They\u2019re one of many tools you should use when deciding how much stock to place in a poll<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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<\/iframe><\/div><div class=\"video-footer\"><div class=\"video-footer-links\"><a href=\"\/videos\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">All Videos<\/a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/FiveThirtyEight\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">YouTube<\/a><\/div><hr \/><\/div><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p data-paragraph=\"main\">Before we reveal the best- and worst-rated pollsters, let\u2019s start with our <a href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/the-state-of-the-polls-2016\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">regular<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/the-polls-are-all-right\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">review<\/a> of <a href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/the-state-of-the-polls-2019\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">polling<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/weve-updated-our-pollster-ratings-ahead-of-the-2020-general-election\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">accuracy<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/the-death-of-polling-is-greatly-exaggerated\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">overall<\/a>. We analyzed virtually all polls conducted in the final 21 days<span class=\"espn-footnote-link\" data-footnote-id=\"1\" data-footnote-url=\"#fn-1\" data-footnote-content=\"&lt;p&gt;Based on the poll&rsquo;s median field date.&lt;\/p&gt;\n\"><sup id=\"ss-1\">1<\/sup><\/span> before every presidential, U.S. Senate, U.S. House and gubernatorial general election, and every presidential primary, since 1998,<span class=\"espn-footnote-link\" data-footnote-id=\"2\" data-footnote-url=\"#fn-2\" data-footnote-content=\"&lt;p&gt;Including special elections and runoffs. For presidential primaries, we excluded New Hampshire primary polls taken before the Iowa caucuses, as well as other states&rsquo; primary polls taken before the New Hampshire primary. We also excluded primary polls if their leader or runner-up dropped out before that primary was held, if any candidate receiving at least 15 percent in the poll dropped out or if any combination of candidates receiving at least 25 percent in the poll dropped out. Finally, pollsters that are banned by FiveThirtyEight for unethical behavior (such as fabricating data) are excluded from all calculations.&lt;\/p&gt;\n\"><sup id=\"ss-2\">2<\/sup><\/span> using three lenses \u2014 error, \u201ccalls\u201d and statistical bias \u2014 to conclude that 2022 was a banner year for polling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p data-paragraph=\"main\">In our opinion, the best way to measure a poll\u2019s accuracy is to look at its absolute <strong>error<\/strong> \u2014 i.e., the difference between a poll\u2019s margin and the actual margin of the election (between the top two finishers in the election, not the poll). For example, if a poll gave the Democratic candidate a lead of 2 percentage points, but the Republican won the election by 1 point, that poll had a 3-point error. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p data-paragraph=\"main\">As <a href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/trump-is-just-a-normal-polling-error-behind-clinton\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">we\u2019ve written<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/2022-polling-error\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">many times<\/a>, some degree of polling error is normal. Taken altogether, the polls in our pollster-ratings database have a weighted-average<span class=\"espn-footnote-link\" data-footnote-id=\"3\" data-footnote-url=\"#fn-3\" data-footnote-content=\"&lt;p&gt;To avoid giving individual pollsters too much influence if they happened to conduct a lot of polls, polls are weighted by one over the square root of the number of polls that their pollster conducted for that particular type of election in that particular cycle. For instance, if Danielle Steel Polling Inc. conducted 16 gubernatorial polls in 2021-22 and George R.R. Martin University conducted one, each poll from Danielle Steel would be given one-fourth the weight of the poll from George R.R. Martin.&lt;\/p&gt;\n\"><sup id=\"ss-3\">3<\/sup><\/span> error of 6.0 points since 1998. However, polling in the 2021-22 election cycle had a weighted-average error of just 4.8 points,<span class=\"espn-footnote-link\" data-footnote-id=\"4\" data-footnote-url=\"#fn-4\" data-footnote-content=\"&lt;p&gt;Specifically, 4.80.&lt;\/p&gt;\n\"><sup id=\"ss-4\">4<\/sup><\/span> edging out the 2003-04 cycle<span class=\"espn-footnote-link\" data-footnote-id=\"5\" data-footnote-url=\"#fn-5\" data-footnote-content=\"&lt;p&gt;4.82.&lt;\/p&gt;\n\"><sup id=\"ss-5\">5<\/sup><\/span> for the lowest polling error on record.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"core-html \">\n<section class=\"viz\">\n <header class=\"viz\">\n <h2 class=\"title\">Polls were historically accurate in 2021-22<\/h2>\n <p class=\"subtitle\">Weighted-average error of polls in the final 21 days* before presidential primary and presidential, Senate, House and gubernatorial general elections since 1998<\/p>\n <\/header>\n <table class=\"viz full\" data-carpenter-slug=\"rakich.pollster-ratings.1\">\n <thead>\n <tr aria-hidden=\"true\">\n <td colspan=\"1\" class=\"upper text\" style=\"border-right: 10px solid transparent\"><\/td>\n <th colspan=\"2\" scope=\"colgroup\" class=\"upper upper-text\" style=\"border-right: 10px solid transparent\">President<\/th>\n <td colspan=\"4\" class=\"upper heat number\" style=\"background: white\"><\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <tr>\n <th colspan=\"1\" scope=\"col\" class=\"no-parent text\">Cycle<\/th>\n <th colspan=\"1\" scope=\"col\" class=\"heat number\" style=\"font-weight:400;width:14%\">Primary<\/th>\n <th colspan=\"1\" scope=\"col\" class=\"heat number\" style=\"font-weight:400;width:14%\">General<\/th>\n <th colspan=\"1\" scope=\"col\" class=\"no-parent heat number\" style=\"width:14%\">Senate<\/th>\n <th colspan=\"1\" scope=\"col\" class=\"no-parent heat number\" style=\"width:14%\"> House<\/th>\n <th colspan=\"1\" scope=\"col\" class=\"no-parent heat number\" style=\"width:14%\">Gov.<\/th>\n <th colspan=\"1\" scope=\"col\" class=\"no-parent heat number\">Combined<\/th>\n <\/tr>\n <\/thead>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td class=\"text\">1998<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background: white;width: 14%\">\u2014<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background: white;width: 14%\">\u2014<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#f7a587;width:14%\">7.5<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#f8ac91;width:14%\">7.1<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#f69977;width:14%\">8.1<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #f7a182\">7.7<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <tr>\n <td class=\"text\">1999-2000<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#f69d7c;width:14%\">7.9<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#fcded3;width:14%\">4.4<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#fac1ac;width:14%\">6.0<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#fcdfd5;width:14%\">4.3<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#fbd5c7;width:14%\">4.9<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #facab8\">5.5<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <tr>\n <td class=\"text\">2001-02<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background: white;width: 14%\">\u2014<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background: white;width: 14%\">\u2014<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#facab8;width:14%\">5.5<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#fac8b6;width:14%\">5.6<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#fbcfc0;width:14%\">5.2<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #faccbb\">5.4<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <tr>\n <td class=\"text\">2003-04<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#f8ae93;width:14%\">7.0<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#fef1ec;width:14%\">3.3<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#fbcebd;width:14%\">5.3<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#fac4b1;width:14%\">5.8<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#facab8;width:14%\">5.5<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #fbd7c9\">4.8<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <tr>\n <td class=\"text\">2005-06<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background: white;width: 14%\">\u2014<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background: white;width: 14%\">\u2014<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#fbcfc0;width:14%\">5.2<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#f9b8a0;width:14%\">6.5<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#fbd1c2;width:14%\">5.1<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #fac6b3\">5.7<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <tr>\n <td class=\"text\">2007-08<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#f7a182;width:14%\">7.7<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#fdeee8;width:14%\">3.5<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#fcd8cb;width:14%\">4.7<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#fac3af;width:14%\">5.9<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#fcded3;width:14%\">4.4<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #facab8\">5.5<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <tr>\n <td class=\"text\">2009-10<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background: white;width: 14%\">\u2014<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background: white;width: 14%\">\u2014<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#fbd5c7;width:14%\">4.9<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#f8ae93;width:14%\">7.0<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#fcd8cb;width:14%\">4.7<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #fac4b1\">5.8<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <tr>\n <td class=\"text\">2011-12<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#f58961;width:14%\">8.9<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#fdeae3;width:14%\">3.7<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#fcd8cb;width:14%\">4.7<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#facab8;width:14%\">5.5<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#fbd5c7;width:14%\">4.9<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #fbcebd\">5.3<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <tr>\n <td class=\"text\">2013-14<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background: white;width: 14%\">\u2014<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background: white;width: 14%\">\u2014<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#fbcebd;width:14%\">5.3<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#f8b298;width:14%\">6.8<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#fcdcd0;width:14%\">4.5<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #fbcebd\">5.3<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <tr>\n <td class=\"text\">2015-16<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#f26c3b;width:14%\">10.2<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#fbd5c7;width:14%\">4.9<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#fbd3c4;width:14%\">5.0<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#fac4b1;width:14%\">5.8<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#faccbb;width:14%\">5.4<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #f8b298\">6.8<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <tr>\n <td class=\"text\">2017-18<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background: white;width: 14%\">\u2014<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background: white;width: 14%\">\u2014<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#fce1d7;width:14%\">4.2<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#fbd5c7;width:14%\">4.9<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#fbcfc0;width:14%\">5.2<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #fbd5c7\">4.9<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <tr>\n <td class=\"text\">2019-20<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#f26c3b;width:14%\">10.2<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#fbd3c4;width:14%\">5.0<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#fac4b1;width:14%\">5.8<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#f9b8a0;width:14%\">6.5<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#f9b9a2;width:14%\">6.4<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #f9bba5\">6.3<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <tr>\n <td class=\"text bold\" style=\"border-bottom: 1px solid #222222\">2021-22<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number bold\" style=\"color: #222222;background: white;width: 14%;border-bottom: 1px solid #222222\">\u2014<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number bold\" style=\"color: #222222;background: white;width: 14%;border-bottom: 1px solid #222222\">\u2014<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number bold\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #fbd7c9;width: 14%;border-bottom: 1px solid #222222\">4.8<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number bold\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #fde5dc;width: 14%;border-bottom: 1px solid #222222\">4.0<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number bold\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #fbd1c2;width: 14%;border-bottom: 1px solid #222222\">5.1<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number bold\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #fbd7c9;border-bottom: 1px solid #222222\">4.8<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <tr>\n <td class=\"text\">All years<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#f48359;width:14%\">9.2<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#fcdfd5;width:14%\">4.3<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#faccbb;width:14%\">5.4<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#f9bfaa;width:14%\">6.1<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#faccbb;width:14%\">5.4<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #fac1ac\">6.0<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <\/tbody>\n <\/table>\n <footer class=\"viz\">\n <p class=\"notes\">Includes polls of special elections and runoffs. Excludes polls from pollsters that are banned by FiveThirtyEight, New Hampshire primary polls taken before the Iowa caucuses and other states\u2019 primary polls taken before the New Hampshire primary. Also excludes presidential primary polls if their leader or runner-up dropped out before that primary was held, if any candidate receiving at least 15 percent in the poll dropped out or if any combination of candidates receiving at least 25 percent in the poll dropped out. <\/p>\n <p class=\"notes\">Polls are weighted by one over the square root of the number of polls that their pollster conducted for that particular type of election in that particular cycle.<\/p>\n <p class=\"notes\">Based on the poll\u2019s median field date.<\/p>\n <p class=\"source\">Sources: Polls, state election officials<\/p>\n <\/footer>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p data-paragraph=\"main\">Interestingly, the weighted-average errors of Senate and gubernatorial races were only slightly lower than usual last year. Polling of the 2021-22 cycle mostly owes its success to a low error in House races. This past cycle was the first time since the 1999-2000 cycle that House polls were more accurate than Senate and gubernatorial polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p data-paragraph=\"main\">But this isn\u2019t as impressive as it sounds. The \u201cHouse polls\u201d group includes district-level polls of individual House races and <a href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/our-best-tool-for-predicting-midterm-elections-doesnt-show-a-republican-wave-but-history-is-on-the-gops-side\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">national generic-congressional-ballot polls<\/a>. And something we noticed early on in 2022 was that pollsters were conducting <a href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/youre-not-imagining-it-there-are-fewer-polls-this-cycle\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">more generic-ballot polls and fewer district-level polls<\/a>. Overall, since 1998, 21 percent of the House polls in our pollster-ratings database have been generic-ballot polls \u2014 but in 2021-22, 46 percent were. That\u2019s higher than in any other election cycle. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p data-paragraph=\"main\">And generic-ballot polls are historically much more accurate than district-level polls. Since 1998, generic-ballot polls have had a weighted-average error of 3.9 points, while district-level polls have had a weighted-average error of 6.7. So, by eschewing district polls in favor of generic-ballot polls last year, pollsters made their jobs much easier.<span class=\"espn-footnote-link\" data-footnote-id=\"6\" data-footnote-url=\"#fn-6\" data-footnote-content=\"&lt;p&gt;That said, generic-ballot polls had a built-in disadvantage in 2022. Generic-ballot polls ask respondents across the nation which party they plan to vote for in Congress. But not everyone can vote for their preferred party: Sometimes, a party doesn&rsquo;t have a candidate in a given district. Last year, Democrats left significantly more seats uncontested than Republicans did, which probably cost Democrats about 1 point of margin in the national popular vote. In other words, even if generic-ballot polls were perfectly accurate in measuring national public opinion, they would have slightly missed the national popular vote. Despite this, generic-ballot polls in 2022 were quite accurate, with a weighted-average error of only 3.1 points.&lt;\/p&gt;\n\"><sup id=\"ss-6\">6<\/sup><\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p data-paragraph=\"main\">But that\u2019s not the only reason House polls were more accurate in this past cycle. The few district-level polls conducted had a weighted-average error of only 5.0 points \u2014 the lowest of any cycle since at least 1998.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p data-paragraph=\"main\">The second lens we use to gauge polling accuracy is how often polls <strong>\u201ccalled\u201d the election correctly.<\/strong> In other words, did the candidate who led a poll win their race?<span class=\"espn-footnote-link\" data-footnote-id=\"7\" data-footnote-url=\"#fn-7\" data-footnote-content=\"&lt;p&gt;We gave a poll half-credit on this score if it showed a tied race and one of the leading candidates won.&lt;\/p&gt;\n\"><sup id=\"ss-7\">7<\/sup><\/span> Historically, across all elections analyzed since 1998, polling leaders come out on top 78 percent of the time (again using a weighted average). By this metric, the 2021-22 cycle was the least accurate in recent history.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"core-html \">\n<section class=\"viz\">\n <header class=\"viz\">\n <h2 class=\"title\">Polls have \u201ccalled\u201d elections correctly 78 percent of the time<\/h2>\n <p class=\"subtitle\">Weighted-average share of polls that correctly identified the winner in the final 21 days before presidential primary and presidential, Senate, House and gubernatorial general elections since 1998<\/p>\n <\/header>\n <table class=\"viz full\" data-carpenter-slug=\"rakich.pollster-ratings.4\">\n <thead>\n <tr aria-hidden=\"true\">\n <td colspan=\"1\" class=\"upper text\" style=\"border-right: 10px solid transparent\"><\/td>\n <th colspan=\"2\" scope=\"colgroup\" class=\"upper upper-text\" style=\"border-right: 10px solid transparent\">President<\/th>\n <td colspan=\"4\" class=\"upper heat number\" style=\"background: white\"><\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <tr>\n <th colspan=\"1\" scope=\"col\" class=\"no-parent text\">Cycle<\/th>\n <th colspan=\"1\" scope=\"col\" class=\"heat number\" style=\"font-weight:400;width:14%\">Primary<\/th>\n <th colspan=\"1\" scope=\"col\" class=\"heat number\" style=\"font-weight:400;width:14%\">General<\/th>\n <th colspan=\"1\" scope=\"col\" class=\"no-parent heat number\" style=\"width:14%\">Senate<\/th>\n <th colspan=\"1\" scope=\"col\" class=\"no-parent heat number\" style=\"width:14%\">House<\/th>\n <th colspan=\"1\" scope=\"col\" class=\"no-parent heat number\" style=\"width:14%\">Gov.<\/th>\n <th colspan=\"1\" scope=\"col\" class=\"no-parent heat number\" style=\"width:14%;border-left:1px solid\">Combined<\/th>\n <\/tr>\n <\/thead>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td class=\"text\">1998<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background: white;width: 14%\" data-suffix=\"%\" data-suffixpadding=\"1.1em\">\u2014<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background: white;width: 14%\" data-suffix=\"%\" data-suffixpadding=\"1.1em\">\u2014<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#4cba6f;width:14%\" data-suffix=\"%\" data-suffixpadding=\"1.1em\">87%<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#def2e5;width:14%\" data-suffix=\"%\" data-suffixpadding=\"1.1em\">49%<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#55bd76;width:14%\" data-suffix=\"%\" data-suffixpadding=\"1.1em\">85%<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#7dcd96;width:14%;border-left:1px solid\" data-suffix=\"%\" data-suffixpadding=\"1.1em\">75%<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <tr>\n <td class=\"text\">1999-2000<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #2aad53;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">95%<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #9bd9af;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">67%<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #5dc17c;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">83<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #c8ead3;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">55<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #61c27f;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">82<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #7dcd96;width: 14%;border-left: 1px solid;padding-right: 1.1em\">75<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <tr>\n <td class=\"text\">2001-02<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background: white;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">\u2014<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background: white;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">\u2014<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #69c586;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">80<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #84d09c;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">73<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #40b565;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">90<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #61c27f;width: 14%;border-left: 1px solid;padding-right: 1.1em\">82<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <tr>\n <td class=\"text\">2003-04<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #2eaf57;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">94<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #71c88c;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">78<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #61c27f;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">82<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #98d7ac;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">68<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #90d4a5;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">70<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #75ca8f;width: 14%;border-left: 1px solid;padding-right: 1.1em\">77<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <tr>\n <td class=\"text\">2005-06<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background: white;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">\u2014<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background: white;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">\u2014<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #37b25e;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">92<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #84d09c;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">73<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #40b565;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">90<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #59bf79;width: 14%;border-left: 1px solid;padding-right: 1.1em\">84<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <tr>\n <td class=\"text\">2007-08<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #69c586;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">80<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #33b05a;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">93<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #2aad53;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">95<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #61c27f;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">82<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #2aad53;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">95<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #48b96b;width: 14%;border-left: 1px solid;padding-right: 1.1em\">88<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <tr>\n <td class=\"text\">2009-10<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background: white;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">\u2014<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background: white;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">\u2014<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #51bc72;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">86<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #81ce99;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">74<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #55bd76;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">85<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #65c483;width: 14%;border-left: 1px solid;padding-right: 1.1em\">81<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <tr>\n <td class=\"text\">2011-12<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #abdebb;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">63<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #61c27f;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">82<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #4cba6f;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">87<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #8cd3a2;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">71<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #3cb461;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">91<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #75ca8f;width: 14%;border-left: 1px solid;padding-right: 1.1em\">77<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <tr>\n <td class=\"text\">2013-14<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background: white;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">\u2014<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background: white;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">\u2014<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #75ca8f;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">77<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #81ce99;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">74<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #69c586;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">80<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #75ca8f;width: 14%;border-left: 1px solid;padding-right: 1.1em\">77<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <tr>\n <td class=\"text\">2015-16<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #55bd76;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">85<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #8cd3a2;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">71<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #71c88c;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">78<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #bde6ca;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">58<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #98d7ac;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">68<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #75ca8f;width: 14%;border-left: 1px solid;padding-right: 1.1em\">77<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <tr>\n <td class=\"text\">2017-18<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background: white;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">\u2014<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background: white;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">\u2014<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #88d19f;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">72<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #69c586;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">80<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #81ce99;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">74<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #7dcd96;width: 14%;border-left: 1px solid;padding-right: 1.1em\">75<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <tr>\n <td class=\"text\">2019-20<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #69c586;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">80<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #69c586;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">80<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #84d09c;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">73<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #61c27f;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">82<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #37b25e;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">92<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #6dc789;width: 14%;border-left: 1px solid;padding-right: 1.1em\">79<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <tr>\n <td class=\"text bold\" style=\"border-bottom: 1px solid #222222\">2021-22<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number bold\" style=\"color: #222222;background: white;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em;border-bottom: 1px solid #222222\">\u2014<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number bold\" style=\"color: #222222;background: white;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em;border-bottom: 1px solid #222222\">\u2014<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number bold\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #75ca8f;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em;border-bottom: 1px solid #222222\">77<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number bold\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #a7ddb8;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em;border-bottom: 1px solid #222222\">64<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number bold\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #75ca8f;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em;border-bottom: 1px solid #222222\">77<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number bold\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #88d19f;width: 14%;border-left: 1px solid;padding-right: 1.1em;border-bottom: 1px solid #222222\">72<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <tr>\n <td class=\"text\">All years<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #61c27f;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">82<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #6dc789;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">79<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #65c483;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">81<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #88d19f;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">72<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #61c27f;width: 14%;padding-right: 1.1em\">82<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #71c88c;width: 14%;border-left: 1px solid;padding-right: 1.1em\">78<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <\/tbody>\n <\/table>\n <footer class=\"viz\">\n <p class=\"notes\">Includes polls of special elections and runoffs. Excludes polls from pollsters that are banned by FiveThirtyEight, New Hampshire primary polls taken before the Iowa caucuses and other states\u2019 primary polls taken before the New Hampshire primary. Also excludes presidential primary polls if their leader or runner-up dropped out before that primary was held, if any candidate receiving at least 15 percent in the poll dropped out or if any combination of candidates receiving at least 25 percent in the poll dropped out. <\/p>\n <p class=\"notes\">Polls are weighted by one over the square root of the number of polls that their pollster conducted for that particular type of election in that particular cycle. Polls get half-credit if they show a tie for the lead and one of the leading candidates wins. <\/p>\n <p class=\"notes\">Based on the poll\u2019s median field date.<\/p>\n <p class=\"source\">Sources: Polls, state election officials<\/p>\n <\/footer>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p data-paragraph=\"main\">But that low hit rate doesn\u2019t really bother us. Correct calls are a lousy way to measure polling accuracy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p data-paragraph=\"main\">Suppose two pollsters released surveys of a race that Democrats eventually won by 1 point. One of the pollsters showed the Republican winning by 1 point; the other showed the Democrat winning by 15 points. The latter pollster may have picked the correct winner, but its poll was wildly off the mark. So we\u2019d be very wary of trusting it in a future election. The other pollster may have picked the wrong winner, but it was well within an acceptable margin of error; essentially, it just got unlucky. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p data-paragraph=\"main\">And you will not be surprised to learn that polls have a worse chance of \u201ccalling\u201d the election correctly if they show a close race. In fact, the percentage of correct calls made is simply a function of how close the polls are.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"core-html alignleft\">\n<section class=\"viz\">\n <header class=\"viz\">\n <h2 class=\"title\">Close polls often miss \u201ccalls\u201d<\/h2>\n <p class=\"subtitle\">Share of polls that correctly identified the winner in the final 21 days before presidential primary and presidential, Senate, House and gubernatorial general elections since 1998, by how close the poll showed the race<\/p>\n <\/header>\n <table class=\"viz full\" data-carpenter-slug=\"rakich.pollster-ratings.6\">\n <thead>\n <tr>\n <th colspan=\"1\" scope=\"col\" class=\"number\" style=\"width:50%;text-align:left\">Poll Margin<\/th>\n <th colspan=\"1\" scope=\"col\" class=\"heat number\" style=\"width:50%\">% Picking Winner<\/th>\n <\/tr>\n <\/thead>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td class=\"number\" style=\"width:50%;text-align:left\" data-suffix=\" pts\" data-suffixpadding=\"2.9em\"><3 pts<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#ebf7ef;width:50%\" data-suffix=\"%\" data-suffixpadding=\"1.1em\">55%<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <tr>\n <td class=\"number\" style=\"width: 50%;text-align: left;padding-right: 2.9em\">3-6<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #b2e2c1;width: 50%;padding-right: 1.1em\">69<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <tr>\n <td class=\"number\" style=\"width: 50%;text-align: left;padding-right: 2.9em\">6-10<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #6bc687;width: 50%;padding-right: 1.1em\">86<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <tr>\n <td class=\"number\" style=\"width: 50%;text-align: left;padding-right: 2.9em\">10-15<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #4bba6e;width: 50%;padding-right: 1.1em\">93<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <tr>\n <td class=\"number\" style=\"width: 50%;text-align: left;padding-right: 2.9em\">15-20<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #39b35f;width: 50%;padding-right: 1.1em\">97<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <tr>\n <td class=\"number\" style=\"width: 50%;text-align: left;padding-right: 2.9em\">\u226520<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #2faf57;width: 50%;padding-right: 1.1em\">99<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <\/tbody>\n <\/table>\n <footer class=\"viz\">\n <p class=\"notes\">Includes polls of special elections and runoffs. Excludes polls from pollsters that are banned by FiveThirtyEight, New Hampshire primary polls taken before the Iowa caucuses and other states\u2019 primary polls taken before the New Hampshire primary. Also excludes presidential primary polls if their leader or runner-up dropped out before that primary was held, if any candidate receiving at least 15 percent in the poll dropped out or if any combination of candidates receiving at least 25 percent in the poll dropped out. <\/p>\n <p class=\"notes\">Polls get half-credit if they show a tie for the lead and one of the leading candidates wins. <\/p>\n <p class=\"notes\">Based on the poll\u2019s median field date.<\/p>\n <p class=\"source\">Sources: Polls, state election officials<\/p>\n <\/footer>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p data-paragraph=\"main\">To quote, uh, myself from almost <a href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/weve-updated-our-pollster-ratings-ahead-of-the-2020-general-election\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">three years ago<\/a>, \u201cPolls\u2019 true utility isn\u2019t in telling us who will win, but rather in roughly how close a race is \u2014 and, therefore, how confident we should be in the outcome.\u201d Historically, candidates leading polls by at least 20 points have won 99 percent of the time. But candidates leading polls by less than 3 points have won just 55 percent of the time. In other words, races within 3 points in the polls are little better than toss-ups \u2014 something we\u2019ve been <a href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/georgia-polls-2022-runoff\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">shouting<\/a> from the <a href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/the-media-has-a-probability-problem\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">rooftops<\/a> for <a href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/doug-jones-is-just-a-normal-polling-error-away-from-a-win-in-alabama\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">years<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p data-paragraph=\"main\">So for 2022, the only substantive lesson we can glean from this metric is that polls were historically close \u2014 something we already knew! In fact, 55 percent of the polls we analyzed for last cycle were closer than 6 points. That\u2019s a higher share than in any other cycle since at least 1998.<span class=\"espn-footnote-link\" data-footnote-id=\"8\" data-footnote-url=\"#fn-8\" data-footnote-content=\"&lt;p&gt;Only 33 percent of polls were closer than 6 points in 2007-08. That cycle had the highest weighted-average correct-call percentage on record: 88 percent.&lt;\/p&gt;\n\"><sup id=\"ss-8\">8<\/sup><\/span> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p data-paragraph=\"main\">Finally, <strong>statistical bias<\/strong> is the third lens through which we view polling accuracy. While error tells us how much a poll missed, bias tells us <em>in what direction<\/em> it missed. In other words, did it overestimate Democrats or Republicans? <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p data-paragraph=\"main\">There\u2019s been a lot of interest in statistical bias in recent years \u2014 specifically, whether polls are <a href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/trump-supporters-arent-shy-but-polls-could-still-be-missing-some-of-them\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">systematically biased against Republicans<\/a> nowadays. These concerns stem primarily from polls <a href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/why-did-republicans-outperform-the-polls-again-two-theories\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">overestimating Democratic support<\/a> in the 2016 and 2020 cycles; as the table below shows, the polls in 2015-16 had a weighted-average bias of D+3.0, and the polls in 2019-20 had an even worse weighted-average bias of D+4.7. A lot of people assumed the polls would have a similar bias again in 2022. But that assumption was wrong: For 2021-22, polls had a weighted-average bias of just D+0.8.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"core-html \">\n<section class=\"viz\">\n <header class=\"viz\">\n <h2 class=\"title\">Polling bias is pretty unpredictable from election to election<\/h2>\n <p class=\"subtitle\">Weighted-average statistical bias of polls in the final 21 days before presidential, Senate, House and gubernatorial general elections since 1998<\/p>\n <\/header>\n <table class=\"viz full\" data-carpenter-slug=\"rakich.pollster-ratings.8\">\n <thead>\n <tr>\n <th colspan=\"1\" scope=\"col\" class=\"text\">Cycle<\/th>\n <th colspan=\"1\" scope=\"col\" class=\"heat number\" style=\"width:16%\">President<\/th>\n <th colspan=\"1\" scope=\"col\" class=\"heat number\" style=\"width:16%\">Senate<\/th>\n <th colspan=\"1\" scope=\"col\" class=\"heat number\" style=\"width:16%\">House<\/th>\n <th colspan=\"1\" scope=\"col\" class=\"heat number\" style=\"width:16%\">Gov.<\/th>\n <th colspan=\"1\" scope=\"col\" class=\"heat number\" style=\"width:16%;border-left:1px solid\">Combined<\/th>\n <\/tr>\n <\/thead>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td class=\"text\">1998<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background: white;width: 16%\">\u2014<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#dd6c66;width:16%\">R+4.5<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#f8e3e1;width:16%\">R+0.9<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#ffffff;background-color:#d13a31;width:16%\">R+5.7<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#e3857f;width:16%;border-left:1px solid\">R+3.8<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <tr>\n <td class=\"text\">1999-2000<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#edb3b0;width:16%\">R+2.4<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#eaa6a2;width:16%\">R+2.8<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#d8dfee;width:16%\">D+1.1<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#fef9f8;width:16%\">R+0.2<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#f1c3c0;width:16%;border-left:1px solid\">R+1.9<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <tr>\n <td class=\"text\">2001-02<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background: white;width: 16%\">\u2014<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#b9c5e0;width:16%\">D+2.0<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#c7d1e6;width:16%\">D+1.6<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#8a9ecb;width:16%\">D+3.4<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#a2b2d6;width:16%;border-left:1px solid\">D+2.7<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <tr>\n <td class=\"text\">2003-04<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#d5dcec;width:16%\">D+1.2<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#e3e8f3;width:16%\">D+0.8<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#b3c0dd;width:16%\">D+2.2<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#b9c5e0;width:16%\">D+2.0<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#cbd4e8;width:16%;border-left:1px solid\">D+1.5<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <tr>\n <td class=\"text\">2005-06<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background: white;width: 16%\">\u2014<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#f0bdba;width:16%\">R+2.1<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#d8dfee;width:16%\">D+1.1<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#f1f3f9;width:16%\">D+0.4<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#fbfcfd;width:16%;border-left:1px solid\">D+0.1<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <tr>\n <td class=\"text\">2007-08<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#dfe5f1;width:16%\">D+0.9<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#f1f3f9;width:16%\">D+0.4<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#d1d9eb;width:16%\">D+1.3<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#fefcfc;width:16%\">R+0.1<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#e3e8f3;width:16%;border-left:1px solid\">D+0.8<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <tr>\n <td class=\"text\">2009-10<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background: white;width: 16%\">\u2014<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#f9e6e5;width:16%\">R+0.8<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#d1d9eb;width:16%\">D+1.3<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#fef9f8;width:16%\">R+0.2<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#f1f3f9;width:16%;border-left:1px solid\">D+0.4<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <tr>\n <td class=\"text\">2011-12<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#edb0ac;width:16%\">R+2.5<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#e79994;width:16%\">R+3.2<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#e79691;width:16%\">R+3.3<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#f3cdca;width:16%\">R+1.6<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#eaa6a2;width:16%;border-left:1px solid\">R+2.8<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <tr>\n <td class=\"text\">2013-14<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background: white;width: 16%\">\u2014<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#a2b2d6;width:16%\">D+2.7<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#778ec2;width:16%\">D+4.0<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#afbddc;width:16%\">D+2.3<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#9eafd4;width:16%;border-left:1px solid\">D+2.8<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <tr>\n <td class=\"text\">2015-16<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#8ea1cd;width:16%\">D+3.3<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#9eafd4;width:16%\">D+2.8<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#738bc1;width:16%\">D+4.1<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#94a7d0;width:16%\">D+3.1<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#98a9d1;width:16%;border-left:1px solid\">D+3.0<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <tr>\n <td class=\"text\">2017-18<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background: white;width: 16%\">\u2014<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background: white;width: 16%\">EVEN<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#fbefef;width:16%\">R+0.5<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#f8e0de;width:16%\">R+1.0<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#fbefef;width:16%;border-left:1px solid\">R+0.5<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <tr>\n <td class=\"text\">2019-20<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#738bc1;width:16%\">D+4.1<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#ffffff;background-color:#5975b5;width:16%\">D+4.9<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#ffffff;background-color:#3255a4;width:16%\">D+6.1<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#ffffff;background-color:#4263ab;width:16%\">D+5.6<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#ffffff;background-color:#607bb8;width:16%;border-left:1px solid\">D+4.7<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <tr>\n <td class=\"text bold\" style=\"border-bottom: 1px solid #222222\">2021-22<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number bold\" style=\"color: #222222;background: white;width: 16%;border-bottom: 1px solid #222222\">\u2014<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number bold\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #fdf6f5;width: 16%;border-bottom: 1px solid #222222\">R+0.3<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number bold\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #f8f9fc;width: 16%;border-bottom: 1px solid #222222\">D+0.2<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number bold\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #d1d9eb;width: 16%;border-bottom: 1px solid #222222\">D+1.3<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number bold\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #e3e8f3;width: 16%;border-left: 1px solid;border-bottom: 1px solid #222222\">D+0.8<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <tr>\n <td class=\"text\">All years<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#d5dcec;width:16%\">D+1.2<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#eaedf6;width:16%\">D+0.6<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#d5dcec;width:16%\">D+1.2<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#dfe5f1;width:16%\">D+0.9<\/td>\n <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#dce2ef;width:16%;border-left:1px solid\">D+1.0<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <\/tbody>\n <\/table>\n <footer class=\"viz\">\n <p class=\"notes\">Includes polls of special elections and runoffs. Excludes polls from pollsters that are banned by FiveThirtyEight. <\/p>\n <p class=\"notes\">Bias is calculated only for elections in which the top two finishers were a Republican and a Democrat. Therefore, it is not calculated for presidential primaries. Polls are weighted by one over the square root of the number of polls that their pollster conducted for that particular type of election in that particular cycle.<\/p>\n <p class=\"notes\">Based on the poll\u2019s median field date.<\/p>\n <p class=\"source\">Sources: Polls, state election officials<\/p>\n <\/footer>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p data-paragraph=\"main\">Ironically, after the election, a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2022\/12\/31\/us\/politics\/polling-election-2022-red-wave.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">narrative emerged<\/a> that 2022 polling was actually too good for <em>Republicans<\/em> \u2014 a claim that our data doesn\u2019t bear out, either. While the polls in a few closely watched races \u2014 like Arizona\u2019s governorship<span class=\"espn-footnote-link\" data-footnote-id=\"9\" data-footnote-url=\"#fn-9\" data-footnote-content=\"&lt;p&gt;Which had a weighted-average bias of R+3.7.&lt;\/p&gt;\n\"><sup id=\"ss-9\">9<\/sup><\/span> and Pennsylvania\u2019s Senate seat<span class=\"espn-footnote-link\" data-footnote-id=\"10\" data-footnote-url=\"#fn-10\" data-footnote-content=\"&lt;p&gt;R+4.2.&lt;\/p&gt;\n\"><sup id=\"ss-10\">10<\/sup><\/span> \u2014 were biased toward Republicans, the polls overall still had a bit of a bias toward Democrats. That\u2019s because generic-ballot polls, the most common type of poll last cycle, had a weighted-average bias of D+1.9,<span class=\"espn-footnote-link\" data-footnote-id=\"11\" data-footnote-url=\"#fn-11\" data-footnote-content=\"&lt;p&gt;Though, as explained in the sixth footnote of this article, we would expect perfectly accurate generic-ballot polls to have a bias of about D+1 when compared to the national popular vote.&lt;\/p&gt;\n\"><sup id=\"ss-11\">11<\/sup><\/span> and polls of several less closely watched races, like the governorships in Ohio<span class=\"espn-footnote-link\" data-footnote-id=\"12\" data-footnote-url=\"#fn-12\" data-footnote-content=\"&lt;p&gt;Which had a weighted-average bias of D+5.1.&lt;\/p&gt;\n\"><sup id=\"ss-12\">12<\/sup><\/span>and Florida,<span class=\"espn-footnote-link\" data-footnote-id=\"13\" data-footnote-url=\"#fn-13\" data-footnote-content=\"&lt;p&gt;D+9.2.&lt;\/p&gt;\n\"><sup id=\"ss-13\">13<\/sup><\/span> also skewed toward Democrats. It was a weird year in that <a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/republicans-house-election-margin\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">some states zigged and other states zagged<\/a>; usually, polling bias in a given year is correlated from race to race.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p data-paragraph=\"main\">But if you\u2019re trying to find patterns in polling bias from <em>year to year<\/em> \u2026 good luck. Statistical bias tends to bounce around from cycle to cycle. Sure, the polls had overestimated Democrats in three of the past four elections before 2022. But before that, in 2012, they overestimated Republicans. And there was barely any polling bias in the three cycles before that. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p data-paragraph=\"main\">This is why we\u2019re constantly warning people against trying to predict the direction of polling error in advance. In fact, we\u2019ve noticed that when pundits try to predict polling bias, they have a <a href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/conventional-wisdom-may-be-contaminating-polls\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">knack for guessing <em>wrong<\/em><\/a>. See, pollsters aren\u2019t passive actors in all this. Pollsters are well aware when their polls have a bad year. Many <a href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/what-pollsters-have-changed-since-2016-and-what-still-worries-them-about-2020\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">adjust their methodology<\/a> to avoid making the same mistakes. Simply put, if polling is broken, pollsters don\u2019t just sit on their hands; they try to fix it! <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p data-paragraph=\"main\">Up to this point, we\u2019ve been talking about \u201cthe polls\u201d and \u201cpollsters\u201d as if they were a monolith. But there are important differences in quality between pollsters. So, without further ado, here is how each pollster performed in the 2021-22 election cycle according to our three metrics:<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"core-html \">\n<section class=\"viz\"> <header class=\"viz\"> <h2 class=\"title\">The most and least accurate pollsters of 2021-22<\/h2> <p class=\"subtitle\">Average error, share of elections \u201ccalled\u201d correctly and average statistical bias of each pollster\u2019s polls in the final 21 days before Senate, House and gubernatorial general elections in the 2021-22 cycle, for pollsters that conducted at least five such polls<\/p> <\/header> <table class=\"viz full\" data-carpenter-slug=\"rakich.pollster-ratings.9\" data-expandable-rows=\"20\"> <thead> <tr> <th colspan=\"1\" scope=\"col\" class=\"text\">Pollster<\/th> <th colspan=\"1\" scope=\"col\" class=\"number\"># of Polls<\/th> <th colspan=\"1\" scope=\"col\" class=\"heat number\" style=\"width:15%\">Average Error<\/th> <th colspan=\"1\" scope=\"col\" class=\"heat number\" style=\"width:16%\">% of Correct Calls<\/th> <th colspan=\"1\" scope=\"col\" class=\"heat number\" style=\"width:15%\">Average Bias<\/th> <\/tr> <\/thead> <tbody> <tr> <td class=\"text\">Suffolk University<\/td> <td class=\"number\">6<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#fef2ed;width:15%\">1.9<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#52bc73;width:16%\" data-suffix=\"%\" data-suffixpadding=\"1.1em\">83%<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#fcf0ef;width:15%\">R+0.7<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td class=\"text\">The New York Times\/Siena College<\/td> <td class=\"number\">12<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#fef2ed;width:15%\">1.9<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #47b86a;width: 16%;padding-right: 1.1em\">88<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background: white;width: 15%\">EVEN<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td class=\"text\">Alaska Survey Research<\/td> <td class=\"number\">5<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#fdede7;width:15%\">2.2<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #2aad53;width: 16%;padding-right: 1.1em\">100<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#f6d7d5;width:15%\">R+1.9<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td class=\"text\">SurveyUSA<\/td> <td class=\"number\">12<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#fdeae3;width:15%\">2.4<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #2aad53;width: 16%;padding-right: 1.1em\">100<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background: white;width: 15%\">EVEN<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td class=\"text\">Echelon Insights<\/td> <td class=\"number\">8<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#fdeae3;width:15%\">2.4<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #7ecd97;width: 16%;padding-right: 1.1em\">63<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#f9e5e4;width:15%\">R+1.2<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td class=\"text\">Beacon Research\/Shaw & Co. Research<\/td> <td class=\"number\">10<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#fce3d9;width:15%\">2.9<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #6fc88b;width: 16%;padding-right: 1.1em\">70<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#fbeceb;width:15%\">R+0.9<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td class=\"text\">Marist College<\/td> <td class=\"number\">10<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#fce1d7;width:15%\">3.0<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #42b666;width: 16%;padding-right: 1.1em\">90<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#bdc8e2;width:15%\">D+2.8<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td class=\"text\">Cygnal<\/td> <td class=\"number\">19<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#fcdfd5;width:15%\">3.1<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #3db463;width: 16%;padding-right: 1.1em\">92<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#f1f3f9;width:15%\">D+0.6<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td class=\"text\">Fabrizio, Lee & Associates<\/td> <td class=\"number\">7<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#fcded3;width:15%\">3.2<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #5bc07b;width: 16%;padding-right: 1.1em\">79<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#f3cac7;width:15%\">R+2.5<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td class=\"text\">Research Co.<\/td> <td class=\"number\">23<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#fcdcd1;width:15%\">3.3<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #49b96c;width: 16%;padding-right: 1.1em\">87<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#fafbfd;width:15%\">D+0.2<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td class=\"text\">OH Predictive Insights<\/td> <td class=\"number\">5<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#fcdbcf;width:15%\">3.4<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #84d09c;width: 16%;padding-right: 1.1em\">60<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#f8f9fc;width:15%\">D+0.3<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td class=\"text\">Ipsos<\/td> <td class=\"number\">6<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#fbd5c7;width:15%\">3.8<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #ddf2e4;width: 16%;padding-right: 1.1em\">17<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#a8b7d8;width:15%\">D+3.7<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td class=\"text\">KAConsulting<\/td> <td class=\"number\">11<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#fbd3c5;width:15%\">3.9<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #40b564;width: 16%;padding-right: 1.1em\">91<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#ecaba7;width:15%\">R+3.9<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td class=\"text\">Remington Research Group<\/td> <td class=\"number\">10<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#fbd0c1;width:15%\">4.1<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #6fc88b;width: 16%;padding-right: 1.1em\">70<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#f2c8c5;width:15%\">R+2.6<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td class=\"text\">Emerson College<\/td> <td class=\"number\">55<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#fbd0c1;width:15%\">4.1<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #54bd75;width: 16%;padding-right: 1.1em\">82<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#f9e3e2;width:15%\">R+1.3<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td class=\"text\">YouGov<\/td> <td class=\"number\">18<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#fbd0c1;width:15%\">4.1<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #57be77;width: 16%;padding-right: 1.1em\">81<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#bdc8e2;width:15%\">D+2.8<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td class=\"text\">Data for Progress<\/td> <td class=\"number\">33<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#faccba;width:15%\">4.4<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #5bc07b;width: 16%;padding-right: 1.1em\">79<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#f6d9d7;width:15%\">R+1.8<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td class=\"text\">Rasmussen Reports<\/td> <td class=\"number\">7<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#faccba;width:15%\">4.4<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #4bba6e;width: 16%;padding-right: 1.1em\">86<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#e9a09c;width:15%\">R+4.4<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td class=\"text\">Civiqs<\/td> <td class=\"number\">17<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#facab8;width:15%\">4.5<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #47b86a;width: 16%;padding-right: 1.1em\">88<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#b1bfdd;width:15%\">D+3.3<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td class=\"text\">Siena College<\/td> <td class=\"number\">7<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#facab8;width:15%\">4.5<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #6dc789;width: 16%;padding-right: 1.1em\">71<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#a6b5d7;width:15%\">D+3.8<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td class=\"text\">Targoz Market Research<\/td> <td class=\"number\">9<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#fac5b2;width:15%\">4.8<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #8dd3a3;width: 16%;padding-right: 1.1em\">56<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#edb0ac;width:15%\">R+3.7<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td class=\"text\">RRH Elections<\/td> <td class=\"number\">5<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#f9c1ac;width:15%\">5.1<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #59bf79;width: 16%;padding-right: 1.1em\">80<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#e5918c;width:15%\">R+5.1<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td class=\"text\">Morning Consult<\/td> <td class=\"number\">6<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#f9bfaa;width:15%\">5.2<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #eff9f2;width: 16%;padding-right: 1.1em\">8<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#869bc9;width:15%\">D+5.2<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td class=\"text\">University of New Hampshire Survey Center<\/td> <td class=\"number\">7<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#f9bfaa;width:15%\">5.2<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #2aad53;width: 16%;padding-right: 1.1em\">100<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#eaa5a1;width:15%\">R+4.2<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td class=\"text\">Trafalgar Group<\/td> <td class=\"number\">37<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#f9bea8;width:15%\">5.3<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #80ce99;width: 16%;padding-right: 1.1em\">62<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#e69590;width:15%\">R+4.9<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td class=\"text\">InsiderAdvantage<\/td> <td class=\"number\">29<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#f9bea8;width:15%\">5.3<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #75ca90;width: 16%;padding-right: 1.1em\">67<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#ecadaa;width:15%\">R+3.8<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td class=\"text\">Patriot Polling<\/td> <td class=\"number\">7<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#f9baa4;width:15%\">5.5<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #6dc789;width: 16%;padding-right: 1.1em\">71<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#e38782;width:15%\">R+5.5<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td class=\"text\">Phillips Academy<\/td> <td class=\"number\">7<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#f9baa4;width:15%\">5.5<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #8bd2a1;width: 16%;padding-right: 1.1em\">57<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#eeb4b1;width:15%\">R+3.5<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td class=\"text\">Wick<\/td> <td class=\"number\">9<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#f9b79f;width:15%\">5.7<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #8dd3a3;width: 16%;padding-right: 1.1em\">56<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#e89c97;width:15%\">R+4.6<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td class=\"text\">co\/efficient<\/td> <td class=\"number\">15<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#f8b49b;width:15%\">5.9<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #7ecd97;width: 16%;padding-right: 1.1em\">63<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#e2807b;width:15%\">R+5.8<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td class=\"text\">Moore Information Group<\/td> <td class=\"number\">5<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#f58c66;width:15%\">8.3<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #c3e8ce;width: 16%;padding-right: 1.1em\">30<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#ffffff;background-color:#d23e35;width:15%\">R+8.3<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td class=\"text\">Amber Integrated<\/td> <td class=\"number\">7<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#f3784b;width:15%\">9.4<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #4bba6e;width: 16%;padding-right: 1.1em\">86<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#ffffff;background-color:#4d6bb0;width:15%\">D+7.8<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td class=\"text\">Ascend Action<\/td> <td class=\"number\">6<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#222222;background-color:#f26c3b;width:15%\">15.0<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color: #222222;background-color: #52bc73;width: 16%;padding-right: 1.1em\">83<\/td> <td class=\"heat number\" style=\"color:#ffffff;background-color:#3255a4;width:15%\">D+15.0<\/td> <\/tr> <\/tbody> <\/table> <footer class=\"viz\"> <p class=\"notes\">Includes polls of special elections and runoffs. Excludes pollsters that are banned by FiveThirtyEight. <\/p> <p class=\"notes\">Polls get half-credit for \u201ccalling\u201d an election correctly if they show a tie for the lead and one of the leading candidates wins. Bias is calculated only for elections in which the top two finishers were a Republican and a Democrat. <\/p> <p class=\"notes\">*Based on the poll\u2019s median field date.<\/p> <p class=\"source\">Sources: Polls, state election officials<\/p> <\/footer><\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p data-paragraph=\"main\">Unsurprisingly, the top of the list is generally populated by academic and media-affiliated pollsters that have been trusted names in polling for a long time. But special congratulations are due to <a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/pollster-ratings\/suffolk-university\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Suffolk University<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/pollster-ratings\/siena-college-the-new-york-times-upshot\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The New York Times\/Siena College<\/a>, which had the lowest average errors of any pollster that conducted at least five qualifying polls last cycle. As a result, Suffolk\u2019s pollster rating has increased from B+ to A-. The New York Times\/Siena College already had an A+ grade, so it didn\u2019t get a ratings boost. Still, its stellar performance did push it past <a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/pollster-ratings\/selzer-co\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Selzer & Co.<\/a> for the distinction of most accurate pollster in America (at least by FiveThirtyEight\u2019s reckoning). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p data-paragraph=\"main\">Meanwhile, the bottom of the list features quite a few Republican-affiliated pollsters that systematically overestimated the GOP in 2022: RRH Elections, InsiderAdvantage, co\/efficient, Moore Information Group.<span class=\"espn-footnote-link\" data-footnote-id=\"14\" data-footnote-url=\"#fn-14\" data-footnote-content=\"&lt;p&gt;But it&rsquo;s worth noting that the two pollsters with the highest errors, Amber Integrated and Ascend Action, both strongly overestimated Democrats. What happened there? Amber and Ascend are Oklahoma-based pollsters (the latter is partially based in Kentucky as well), and Oklahoma&rsquo;s 2022 elections featured huge polling errors in the GOP&rsquo;s favor. For example, Republican Gov. Kevin Stitt led by less than 5 points in FiveThirtyEight&rsquo;s final polling average of the gubernatorial race, but he won by almost 14 points.&lt;\/p&gt;\n\"><sup id=\"ss-14\">14<\/sup><\/span> But the most famous of these is probably Trafalgar Group, a pollster whose methods are notoriously opaque but that played a significant role in shaping the ultimately untrue narrative that a \u201cred wave\u201d was building with its 37 (!) qualifying pre-election polls. Trafalgar\u2019s polls were quite accurate in 2020, when its Republican-leaning house effects helped it avoid the big polling miss that other firms experienced. As a result, it went into 2022 with an A- pollster rating. But its poor performance last cycle has knocked it down to a B \u2014 making it one of two pollsters to fall two notches in our ratings this year.<span class=\"espn-footnote-link\" data-footnote-id=\"15\" data-footnote-url=\"#fn-15\" data-footnote-content=\"&lt;p&gt;Excluding changes in provisional grades, which we give to pollsters that don&rsquo;t have a large enough sample size of polls to assign a full grade to.&lt;\/p&gt;\n\"><sup id=\"ss-15\">15<\/sup><\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p data-paragraph=\"main\">Of course, we generate more data on each pollster than just a letter grade. On our <a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/pollster-ratings\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">pollster-ratings page<\/a>, you\u2019ll also find the pollster\u2019s historical bias, the number of its polls we\u2019ve analyzed and its Predictive Plus-Minus, which is our projection of how much error we think the pollster will have in future elections relative to the average pollster. (Negative scores mean we believe the pollster will have less error than average.) <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p data-paragraph=\"main\">On each pollster\u2019s <em>individual<\/em> pollster-ratings page, you\u2019ll find the percentage of races it called correctly, the most recent cycle in which it polled, a list of all its qualifying polls and how accurate they were as well as whether it participates in the American Association for Public Opinion Research\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/aapor.org\/standards-and-ethics\/transparency-initiative\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Transparency Initiative<\/a> or shares its data with the <a href=\"https:\/\/ropercenter.cornell.edu\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Roper Center for Public Opinion Research<\/a>. (A note for close observers of the pollster ratings: We have stopped giving pollsters credit for once belonging to the now-defunct National Council on Public Polls.) That final datum is essential because that level of transparency correlates with methodological quality and accuracy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p data-paragraph=\"main\">And if all that isn\u2019t enough, you can also <a href=\"https:\/\/github.com\/fivethirtyeight\/data\/tree\/master\/pollster-ratings\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">download the data underlying our pollster ratings<\/a> for even more goodies, like how often a pollster missed outside the margin of error, its house effects and how much we penalize it for potential <a href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/heres-proof-some-pollsters-are-putting-a-thumb-on-the-scale\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">herding<\/a>. Have fun exploring, and if you have any questions, email us at <a href=\"mailto:polls@fivethirtyeight.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">polls@fivethirtyeight.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p data-paragraph=\"main\"><strong>CORRECTION (March 13, 12:18 p.m.): <\/strong>A previous version of this story incorrectly stated that Trafalgar Group was the only pollster that fell two notches in FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings; TIPP Insights also saw its rating decline by two steps, from A+ to A-.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":108,"featured_media":355498,"template":"","meta":{"espn_topic_slug":"1563","espn_photo_credit":"","apple_news_api_created_at":"2023-03-10T11:00:24Z","apple_news_api_id":"4182f0d1-21e1-4cb1-9069-322d313d5428","apple_news_api_modified_at":"2023-03-13T16:58:41Z","apple_news_api_revision":"AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAABw==","apple_news_api_share_url":"https:\/\/apple.news\/AQYLw0SHhTLGQaTItMT1UKA","apple_news_coverimage":0,"apple_news_coverimage_caption":"","apple_news_is_hidden":false,"apple_news_is_paid":false,"apple_news_is_preview":false,"apple_news_is_sponsored":false,"apple_news_maturity_rating":"","apple_news_metadata":"\"\"","apple_news_pullquote":"","apple_news_pullquote_position":"","apple_news_slug":"","apple_news_sections":"\"\"","apple_news_suppress_video_url":false,"apple_news_use_image_component":false,"aplnews_status":"enabled","espn_layout_type":"featured_layout","espn_simple_header":"","featured_image_location":"","show_featured_video":"","espn_banner_image":"","espn_og_custom_image":355499,"footnotes":"","espn_subheading":"We\u2019ve updated our pollster ratings."},"tags":[333643107,8567699,63719,121651552,12669074,1811,36736659,1526717],"espn_verticals":[398],"coauthors":[333640805],"class_list":["post-356167","fte_features","type-fte_features","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-2022-election","tag-generic-ballot","tag-polling","tag-polling-accuracy","tag-polling-bias","tag-polls","tag-pollster-ratings","tag-pollsters","espn_verticals-politics","vertical-politics","topic-slug-polling"],"apple_news_notices":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/fte_features\/356167","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/fte_features"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/fte_features"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/108"}],"version-history":[{"count":26,"href":"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/fte_features\/356167\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":363177,"href":"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/fte_features\/356167\/revisions\/363177"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/355498"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=356167"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=356167"},{"taxonomy":"espn_verticals","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/espn_verticals?post=356167"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=356167"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}} <div align="center"> <br><br>  <div class="a2a_kit a2a_kit_size_32 a2a_default_style"> <a class="a2a_dd" href="https://www.addtoany.com/share"></a> <a class="a2a_button_facebook"></a> <a class="a2a_button_twitter"></a> <a class="a2a_button_google_plus"></a> </div> <script async src="https://static.addtoany.com/menu/page.js"></script>  <br><br> </aside><aside id="text-4" class="widget widget_text"> <div class="textwidget"><iframe src="//www.facebook.com/plugins/like.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fsapili.org&width=728&layout=standard&action=like&show_faces=true&share=true&height=80&appId=378122382351581" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="border:none; overflow:hidden; width:728px; height:80px;" allowTransparency="true">

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