Digital Library

of the European Council for Modelling and Simulation

Title:

Simulation Of The Control Of Exponential Smoothing By Methods Used In Industrial Practice

Authors:

Frank Herrmann

Published in:

(2012).ECMS 2012 Proceedings edited by: K. G. Troitzsch, M. Moehring, U. Lotzmann. European Council for Modeling and Simulation. doi:10.7148/2012 

ISBN: 978-0-9564944-4-3

26^th European Conference on Modelling and Simulation,

Shaping reality through simulation

Koblenz, Germany, May 29 – June 1 2012

Citation format:

Herrmann, F. (2012). Simulation Of The Control Of Exponential Smoothing By Methods Used In Industrial Practice. ECMS 2012 Proceedings edited by: K. G. Troitzsch, M. Moehring, U. Lotzmann (pp. 560-566). European Council for Modeling and Simulation. doi:10.7148/2012-0560-0566

DOI:

http://dx.doi.org/10.7148/2012-0560-0566

Abstract:

Demands of customers for products and of the production for parts are being forecasted quite often in companies. The results are used extensively within the operational production planning and control by IT Systems like the SAP system. Hereby preferably methods based on exponential smoothing are being applied. Especially, in industrial practice it is expected that the pattern of the data change over time in such a way, that the parameters of the exponential smoothing have to be changed. In some companies thousands of items require forecasting, which is very laborious. With an adaptive method the parameters are modified in a controlled manner, as changes in the pattern occur. Two adaptive methods used in industrial practice are explained. Simulation experiments over a huge number of periods show when they should be used.

Full text: