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Link to original content: https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2301.04551
[2301.04551] Non-linear, bivariate stochastic modelling of power-grid frequency applied to islands
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Physics > Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability

arXiv:2301.04551 (physics)
[Submitted on 11 Jan 2023 (v1), last revised 22 Sep 2023 (this version, v2)]

Title:Non-linear, bivariate stochastic modelling of power-grid frequency applied to islands

Authors:Ulrich Oberhofer, Leonardo Rydin Gorjão, G. Cigdem Yalcin, Oliver Kamps, Veit Hagenmeyer, Benjamin Schäfer
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Abstract:Mitigating climate change requires a transition away from fossil fuels towards renewable energy. As a result, power generation becomes more volatile and options for microgrids and islanded power-grid operation are being broadly discussed. Therefore, studying the power grids of physical islands, as a model for islanded microgrids, is of particular interest when it comes to enhancing our understanding of power-grid stability. In the present paper, we investigate the statistical properties of the power-grid frequency of three island systems: Iceland, Ireland, and the Balearic Islands. We utilise a Fokker-Planck approach to construct stochastic differential equations that describe market activities, control, and noise acting on power-grid dynamics. Using the obtained parameters we create synthetic time series of the frequency dynamics. Our main contribution is to propose two extensions of stochastic power-grid frequency models and showcase the applicability of these new models to non-Gaussian statistics, as encountered in islands.
Subjects: Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability (physics.data-an); Systems and Control (eess.SY); Applications (stat.AP)
Cite as: arXiv:2301.04551 [physics.data-an]
  (or arXiv:2301.04551v2 [physics.data-an] for this version)
  https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2301.04551
Related DOI: https://doi.org/10.1109/PowerTech55446.2023.10202986

Submission history

From: Ulrich Oberhofer [view email]
[v1] Wed, 11 Jan 2023 16:27:11 UTC (2,446 KB)
[v2] Fri, 22 Sep 2023 11:44:06 UTC (2,446 KB)
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