Abstract
China’s future population structure can be projected with reasonable confidence. In recent decades, China has had a ‘demographic window of opportunity’, in which a large and growing proportion of the population have been of working age. This process is now stalling and will soon reverse.
The authors thank Poting Cheung and Xing Yan for their assistance with this paper.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Bai, Chong-En and Binzhen Wu (2012) ‘Chinese Social Insurance and Household Comsumption’, in Masahiko Aoki and Wu Jinglian (eds), The Chinese Economy: A New Transition, IEA Conference Volume 150-IV (Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan).
Banister, Judith (2009) ‘Marriage and Family’, in Berkshire Encyclopedia of China (Great Barrington, MA: Berkshire Publishing Group), pp. 1404–1409.
Banister, Judith and George Cook (2011) ‘China’s Employment and Compensation Costs in Manufacturing through 2008’, Monthly Labor Review, March, pp. 20–33. Online at www.bls.gov/fls/publications.htm.
Barr, Nicholas and Peter Diamond (2010) Pension Reform in China: Issues, Options, and Recommendations. Online at econ-www.mit.edu/files/6310.
Bloom, David E., David Canning and Jocelyn Finlay (2009) ‘Population Aging and Economic Growth in Asia’, in NBER-EASE Volume 19, The Demographic Transition in the Pacific Rim, pp. 61–89.
Bloom, David E., David Canning, Linlin Hu, Yuanli Liu, Ajay Mahal and Winnie Yip (2010) ‘The Contribution of Population Health and Demographic Change to Economic Growth in China and India’, Journal of Comparative Economics, vol. 38, no. 1, Symposium on China and India, edited by Pranab Bardhan and Yingyi Qian, pp. 17–33.
Bloom, David E., David Canning and Günther Fink (2010) ‘Population Aging and Economic Growth’, in Michael Spence and Danny Leipziger (eds), Global Challenges and Growth: Implications for a Post-Crisis World. Commission on Growth and Development (Washington, DC: World Bank), pp. 297–328.
Cai, Fang and Meiyan Wang (2006) ‘Challenge Facing China’s Economic Growth in Its Aging but not Affluent Era’, China & World Economy (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences), vol. 14, no. 5, 20–31.
Cai, Fang and Zhao Wen (2012) ‘When Demographic Dividend Disappears: Growth Sustainability of China’, in Masahiko Aoki and Wu Jinglian (eds), The Chinese Economy: A New Transition, IEA Conference Volume 150-IV (Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan).
China Economic Research and Advisory Programme (2005) Social Security Reform in China: Issues and Options. Online at econ-www.mit.edu/files/691.
China National Bureau of Statistics (China NBS) (1993) Tabulation on the 1990 Population Census of the People’s Republic of China (Beijing: China, Statistical Publishing House).
China National Bureau of Statistics (China NBS) (2005) 2005 National 1% Sample Survey Data (Beijing: China Statistics Press).
China National Bureau of Statistics (China NBS) China Population & Employment Statistics Yearbook, annual (Beijing: China Statistics Press.
China National Bureau of Statistics (China NBS) China Statistical Yearbook, annual (Beijing: China Statistics Press).
China National Bureau of Statistics (China NBS) Population Census Communiqué, April 28, 2011.
Lee, Ronald and Andrew Mason (2011) ‘Population Aging, Intergenerational Transfers, and Economic Growth: Asia in a Global Context’, forthcoming in National Research Council (2012) Aging in Asia: Findings from New and Emerging Data Initiatives, edited by J.P. Smith and M. Majmundar (Washington, DC: The National Academies Press)
Peng, Xiujian and Yinhua Mai (2008) ‘Population Ageing, Labour Market Reform and Economic Growth in China — A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis’. Online at http://www.monash.edu.au/policy/ftp/workpapr/g-174.pdf.
United Nations (2009) World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision. Online at www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wpp2008.
United Nations (2011), World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. Online at www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wpp2010.
Wang, Longde, L. Kong, F. Wu, Y. Bai and R. Burton (2005) ‘Preventing Chronic Diseases in China’, The Lancet, vol. 366, no. 9499, pp. 1821–1824.
World Bank, World Development Indicators 2008. www.econ.worldbank.org, Data & Research, Report Number 54167 (Washington, DC: World Bank).
World Bank Human Development Unit for East Asia (EASHD) (2009) The Weil-Being of China’s Rural Elderly and Old Age Support. Online at www.documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/news/2012/03/15947358/elderly-old-age-support-rural-china-challenges-prospects.
World Health Organization (2009) World Health Statistics 2009. Online at http://www.who.int/whosis/whostat/2009/en/index.html.
World Health Organization, Report of China. http://www.who.int/healthinfo/survey/whschn-china.pdf.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Copyright information
© 2012 International Economic Association
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Banister, J., Bloom, D.E., Rosenberg, L. (2012). Population Aging and Economic Growth in China. In: Aoki, M., Wu, J. (eds) The Chinese Economy. International Economic Association Series. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137034298_7
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137034298_7
Publisher Name: Palgrave Macmillan, London
Print ISBN: 978-1-137-03428-1
Online ISBN: 978-1-137-03429-8
eBook Packages: Palgrave Economics & Finance CollectionEconomics and Finance (R0)