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A popular view is that such a salient pattern cannot be explained by shifts in economic fundamentals, but was driven by speculative bubbles as a consequence of the increased financialization of oil future markets. Testing this hypothesis, however, is challenging since the fundamental component of the oil price is unobservable. This paper attempts to isolate the contribution of speculative bubbles and fundamentals to the evolution of oil prices by providing a stylized model of commodity pricing. Motivated by our theoretical model, we adopt a continuous\u2010time model with a random and time\u2010varying persistence parameter to empirically investigate the presence of speculative bubbles in daily oil future prices over the period April 1983 to June 2020. We do not find any evidence in favor of speculative bubbles, although we indeed find that oil prices exhibit episodes of unstable behavior after 2004.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1155\/2021\/8883416","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,1,7]],"date-time":"2021-01-07T19:36:02Z","timestamp":1610048162000},"update-policy":"http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Booms and Busts in the Oil Market: Identifying Speculative Bubbles Using a Continuous\u2010Time Dynamic System"],"prefix":"10.1155","volume":"2021","author":[{"given":"Kaizhi","family":"Yu","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"http:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2839-9888","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Yun","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,1,7]]},"reference":[{"volume-title":"Testimony before the U.S. Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs","year":"2008","author":"Masters M. 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