Natural population growth rate in China 2023, by region
In 2023, the natural growth rate of the population across China varied between 7.96 people per 1,000 inhabitants (per mille) in Tibet and -6.92 per mille in Heilongjiang province. The national total population growth rate turned negative in 2022 and ranged at -1.48 per mille in 2023.
Regional disparities in population growth
The natural growth rate is the difference between the birth rate and the death rate of a certain region. In China, natural population growth reached the highest values in the western regions of the country. These areas have a younger population and higher fertility rates.
Although the natural growth rate does not include the direct effects of migration, migrants are often young people in their reproductive years, and their movement may therefore indirectly affect the birth rates of their home and host region. This is one of the reasons why Guangdong province, which received a lot of immigrants over the last decades, has a comparatively high population growth rate. At the same time, Jilin, Liaoning, and Heilongjiang province, all located in northeast China, suffer not only from low fertility, but also from emigration of young people searching for better jobs elsewhere.
The impact of uneven population growth
The current distribution of natural population growth rates across China is most likely to remain in the near future, while overall population decline is expected to accelerate. Regions with less favorable economic opportunities will lose their inhabitants faster. The western regions with their high fertility rates, however, have only small total populations, which limits their effect on China’s overall population size.
