Monthly Outlook

Fairly mild conditions should prevail over the weekend, along with changeable and windy conditions.

Temperatures are likely to continue to fluctuate widely later on, including colder phases with some wintriness. A quite active Atlantic pattern may predominate, with a few high pressure interludes.

Ups and downs

Low pressure systems with their fronts will dominate the weather conditions over the weekend.

In view of this trend, temperatures will climb well above average over the weekend, with a brisk and at times wet south to south-westerly flow.

A cold front will sink slowly south-east on Sunday and into Monday. Temperatures should therefore be lower early next week, accompanied by strong north-west to northerly winds and spells of rain or showers, which could turn wintry across Scotland.

A temporary high may follow from the west, leading to frosty conditions on Monday night, especially in northern England and Scotland. However, in the early hours of Tuesday, mist and fog may occur in some areas, along with conditions that briefly become somewhat calmer.

A new Atlantic low could move across much of the UK towards the middle of next week, making it windier. In addition, heavy rain is expected from the west and north-west, which could turn to snow in places as it bumps into the cold air.

A very intense low may approach from the west around or soon after the middle of the week, along with potentially very strong winds and heavy spells of rain and showers. Disruptive conditions in places cannot be ruled out.

Later next week, new Atlantic lows could follow, but with a more north-westerly flow developing, which could mean wet and colder conditions, perhaps with some sleet and snow over high ground.

Nevertheless, the prospects for next weekend include high pressure establishing itself west or north-west of the UK, allowing quite cold air to sink south, along with a brisk northerly flow and gradually sinking snowfall heights.

At present, confidence in northerlies developing at the end of next week is rather low.

A wintry spell?

The risk of slightly wetter and above all windier conditions is likely to continue, and perhaps be even more pronounced in eastern parts of the UK. Furthermore, a continuation of a rather wintry spell is possible, more so at the beginning of this week.

However, high pressure could set in from the west later in the week and it could get a little drier and calmer as the week progresses, though there remains low confidence in this. Temperatures could climb above average again as the high pressure moves further east of the UK, along with a brisk southerly flow for a time.

Nevertheless, any high pressure could be rather short-lived as new Atlantic lows approach, bringing fairly unsettled conditions back to the UK.

Changeable and quite windy

According to the long-term weather forecast models, generally quite wet and windy weather could prevail or return during this period, with only brief periods of drier and calmer conditions.

On average, temperatures should be on the mild side, but with occasional colder spells possible due to a temporarily stronger north-westerly flow.

Later in the forecast period (including the Christmas holidays), there are indications that even milder conditions may establish themselves, though coupled with fairly windy if not stormy conditions at times. Consistent with this trend, a few intense lows could move across parts of the UK, potentially leading to disruptive weather.

Our next outlook in the middle of next week will address the question of how long the expected wintry spells could last, and will take another look at how conditions may shape up around Christmas.