Climate change: Is the UK on track to meet its net zero targets?

The UK has pledged to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050. Net zero means a country takes as much of these planet-warming gases - such as carbon dioxide - out of the atmosphere as it puts in.

The UK has been relatively successful in cutting its emissions so far, but the government's independent advisers, the Climate Change Committee (CCC), have called recent progress "worryingly slow".

In September, Rishi Sunak announced pushbacks to some net zero policies as part of a new "pragmatic" approach.

The cost of delivering net zero - and who pays for it - has sparked a political debate. The CCC estimates it will require an extra £50bn of investment per year by 2030, but may also bring savings as newer, cleaner technologies are often more efficient than those they are replacing.

What progress is being made?

The UK has been successful in cutting carbon emissions from electricity generation. These have fallen by around three-quarters since 1990.

This is due to a decline in using fossil fuels - coal, oil and gas - for electricity.

Meanwhile the proportion of electricity generated by renewables - such as wind and solar - has grown to around 40% in the last few years, up from just over 10% a decade ago.

The government pledged that all of the UK's electricity would come from low carbon sources (renewables and nuclear) by 2035.

The government plans to increase offshore wind capacity five-fold by 2030, increase solar power capacity five-fold by 2035, and expand nuclear power.

However, reports by the CCC, the National Audit Office and a cross-party group of MPs have warned that the UK risks missing its target without clearer planning and much faster action.

Despite the push for renewable energy, the government is granting 100 oil and gas production licences for the North Sea. The Rosebank oil field has also been approved.

The government says it wants to reduce the UK's reliance on imported energy such as gas from "hostile states".

But the CCC says investing in renewables would be a better way to reduce reliance on imports and bring bills down for consumers.

It says the expansion of fossil fuel production "is not in line with net zero".

Buildings account for about 17% of the UK's greenhouse gas emissions, mainly due to burning fossil fuels for heating.

The government has committed to installing 600,000 electric heat pumps a year by 2028 to replace gas boilers.

In 2022, around 70,000 heat pumps were installed in the UK, leaving the government's 600,000 target "significantly off track", according to the CCC.

The government has increased grants to £7,500 to help homeowners in England and Wales install a heat pump.

However, it also said around a fifth of homes would never by required to switch from a fossil fuel boiler, but hasn't clearly defined which properties this would apply to. This change makes net zero by 2050 "considerably harder to achieve", the CCC warned.

The UK has some of the least energy-efficient homes in Europe. Insulation is one of the most effective ways to reduce emissions from housing, by reducing the energy needed for heating.

The government has introduced the Great British Insulation Scheme to help insulate around 300,000 of the poorest-performing homes.

But in September the government cancelled regulations that would have required landlords to improve the energy efficiency of privately rented homes.

Transport (not including aviation and shipping) accounted for just under a quarter of UK emissions in 2022, making it the largest emitting sector.

The government has delayed its ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars from 2030 to 2035, a move which has divided the car industry.

But it has set quotas for the percentage of a manufacturer's sales that have to be zero emission, increasing year-on-year to 80% by 2030. This has been welcomed by the CCC.

Electric car sales have been surging and are ahead of schedule, according to the CCC. In 2022, nearly 17% of new car sales were battery electric - up from under 2% in 2019.

To aid electric car take-up, the government wants 300,000 publicly-accessible charging points for electric cars by 2030.

The number of public charging points had increased to over 50,000 by the end of October 2023 - up by 45% over the past year - but their deployment requires "rapid acceleration" to meet the increasing demand, the CCC says.

The government has allocated nearly £300m for up to 1,400 zero-emission buses through regional schemes, but the CCC says it needs to confirm when it will end the sale of diesel buses.

The government aims to remove all diesel-only trains by 2040, but the CCC argues it needs a clearer plan to achieve this.

Overall, the CCC says there has been "little progress" switching to lower carbon modes of travel, such as public transport and active travel, to reduce car demand.

Flying makes up about 7% of overall UK emissions, and shipping about 3%.

The UK has a strategy for delivering net zero aviation by 2050.

It has been criticised for relying too much on technologies such as sustainable fuels and zero emissions aircraft that do not yet exist.

As a result, the CCC says that the government should be looking at how to manage demand rather than allowing it to grow - for example addressing private jet use and providing lower cost rail travel.

Progress has also been slow to establish a strategy to decarbonise shipping, the CCC says.

Agriculture and land use produce 11% of the UK's greenhouse gas emissions.

The government released its food strategy in June 2022, but the CCC criticised it for failing to deliver action to drive down emissions from agriculture at the required scale or pace.

It has also been criticised for not doing more to encourage a switch to a more sustainable diet - eating plant-based foods, for example.

Meat consumption in the UK has been falling though - down 17% in the decade to 2019.

In February 2023, the government released details of its long-awaited environmental land management schemes for England, replacing the EU common agricultural policy.

The schemes mean farmers can apply for public money to support activities that benefit the environment.

Trees and peatlands play important roles in removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

UK forest cover is 13%, among the lowest in Europe.

The government has a target to plant 30,000 hectares of trees a year by 2025.

However, annual UK tree planting has not risen above 15,000 hectares since 2001.

The UK forestry body has warned that there is "zero chance" of the UK meeting its target.

It is estimated that only around 20% of UK peatlands are in a near-natural state, including only 1.3% in England.

These damaged peatlands are responsible for around 5% of the UK's greenhouse gas emissions, whereas healthy peatlands would take up carbon dioxide.

The government aims to restore around 29,000 hectares of peatland a year across England, Scotland and Wales by 2025. But current levels are less than half this, leaving peatland restoration "significantly off track", the CCC says.

Hydrogen is a low-carbon fuel that could be used for transport, heating, power generation or energy storage.

The government says it considers hydrogen to be a critical part of future energy security and decarbonisation. It wants to have a 10GW hydrogen production capacity by 2030.

The industry is in its infancy, and the government admits it will need "rapid and significant scale-up" in the coming years.

The government has promised a decision on the role of hydrogen in heating in 2026, but the CCC says this delay is holding back potential investment.

In March 2023 the government announced the first winning projects from the £240m Net Zero Hydrogen Fund.

The ability to capture carbon before it is released - or take it out of the atmosphere and store it - will be important if the UK is to reach net zero.

The government is aiming to capture and store between 20 and 30 million tonnes of CO2 a year by 2030.

In March, the Chancellor pledged £20bn in investment in carbon capture over the next 20 years, and several projects have been announced.

But the technology is still emerging, is expensive, and can only capture a portion of emissions.

Industrial emissions represent about 14% of the UK total.

The government aims to cut emissions from manufacturing by about two-thirds by 2035.

It has a scheme to cap the amount of emissions allowed by individual sectors each year, reducing that amount over time.

But the scheme risks companies shifting production to other countries and therefore not actually reducing their emissions.

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