For many critics of the Chinese Communist Party around the world, the Trump administration of 2016 to 2021 provided a welcome package of strong new policies in its reset of the China-U.S. relationship along the lines of an “America First” agenda.
Although Donald Trump has recently been making fleeting remarks that suggest he is open to finding a deal with China if he becomes president of the United States again, those statements should be taken as an opening gambit only. From the beginning of Trump’s administration in January 2017 to the very last day of it in January 2021, Trump pulled no punches in dealing blows to China on a comprehensive list of agenda items.
Trump tackled China on the toughest of issues, not just the tariffs which are the best-known policies of his China package. Trump went after China on genocide in Xinjiang and the National Security Law in Hong Kong effectively censoring free speech in the former British colony, enacted after massive protests against Beijing. His administration also blocked certain Chinese telecommunications companies from doing business in the United States.
He sanctioned Chinese officials engaged in human rights abuses, and blocked access to their property. He issued an Executive Order that determined Hong Kong is “no longer sufficiently autonomous to justify differential treatment in relation to the People’s Republic of China.” Trump issued another Executive Order “taking additional steps to address the national emergency with respect to the information and communications technology and services supply chain.”
And then, one day prior to leaving office, Trump dealt China a final and humiliating blow.
On January 19, 2021, then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told the world that the United States had determined that China had committed “genocide and crimes against humanity” through its often-violent repression of Muslim Uyghurs and other Muslim minorities in northwest Xinjiang Province, since at least March of 2017.
Indeed, between 2017 and 2021, the Trump administration issued no fewer than eight executive orders that primarily involved China, according to the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission. During that same period of time, the Trump administration issued seven more executive orders not directly focusing on China but affecting key policy areas relating to the China-U.S. relationship. Another 116 China-related measures were taken by the Executive Branch during the years of Trump’s presidency.
Thus, for the first time since the United States re-established diplomatic relations with the People’s Republic of China in 1979, Beijing had to absorb real-world consequences for its behavior both at home and abroad. The Trump White House’s executive orders list and address a comprehensive litany of aggressions, abuses, and actions taken by China in a wide variety of arenas, from human rights to the South China Sea to theft of American intellectual property. Topped off by a charge of genocide – which was backed by Pompeo’s successor as secretary of state as well – Trump left no doubt in anyone’s mind that more was to come if he were given another term.
If Trump becomes president this week, it is highly likely that he will breathe new life into his multi-pronged set of policy directives on China (many of which, in an irony of ironies, remained in place if not enforced as well during the Biden administration). Indeed, Trump has promised that he will add to the package, as necessary. On the table are 60 percent tariffs on some Chinese imports, and a revocation of Most Favored Trade Nation status, which has given China unprecedented access to the U.S. market.
As in his first term, if Trump has a second one, he will pursue the removal of pharmaceutical manufacturing in China for the U.S. market. He will attempt to acquire and protect key minerals required for high-tech manufacturing. Trump will certainly continue to strengthen his goal of bringing manufacturing back to the United States.
It can be argued that Trump’s policies on China are and have been all of a piece. There is continuity in both his stated policies as well as in his actions on China, and there is every reason to believe that if he becomes president again, that package of policies and the consequences they draw will be back in force, with new measures to tighten the belt.
Early in 2020, Trump changed toward China; one could see it in his face and hear it in his voice. He experienced his revelatory moment not long after the Phase One Trade Deal was signed in the East Room of the United States on January 15, 2020.
Why did Trump lose confidence in the value of the China-U.S. relationship? Because he believed that China allowed planes to take people out of Wuhan, people who had been the first to be exposed to the coronavirus, and to then fly them into locations all over the world. At the same time, so the story goes, China shut down domestic flights, protecting the Chinese people. This story has been debunked, based on flight data that appear to contradict the claim. What’s important, however, is that Trump believed it. He has also made several statements indicating that he believes the virus originated from a laboratory in Wuhan.
In countless statements since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, Trump indicated a new wariness toward China. It was evident that the China’s handling of the pandemic showed a side of Beijing that he had no sympathy for, nor willingness to deal with. From that day forward, as his numerous remarks show, his interest in dealing with China on a basis of mutual interest and cooperation died.
If Trump wins the election, he would do by besting Kamala Harris, the vice president of the incumbent Democratic administration. The American public does not elect a new president from the opposition based on a mandate to protect and perpetuate the status quo. Quite the reverse. Citizens elect a new president from the opposition party because they want change – either to help them improve their lives or to defend the nation or both. And it is clear from the vocal support for his tough-on-China, America-first policies that Trump supporters want to see these policies enacted. Trump would not be likely to let them down.
Donald Trump, like every other president, has his own policies and priorities to address and achieve. He had them in 2016, and he has them now. Unlike presidents before him, Trump is not worried about hurting Beijing’s feelings in the process. If Trump wins, China is in for a rough ride.