European Parliament elections 2024 - statistics & facts
The 2024 elections to the European Parliament took place between June 6 and June 9, 2024, with over 400 million voters eligible to vote across the 27 member states of the European Union. Preliminary results indicate that while the center-right European People's Party (EPP) will remain the largest group, right-wing and far-right parties have gained seats at the expense of the center. The far-right performed particularly strongly in France leading to President Macron calling snap parliamentary elections for June and July of 2024. In Germany, the EPP, won 30 out of Germany's 96 seats, while the right-wing populist Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) managed to win 15 seats, one more than German's current ruling party, the SPD. In contrast to France and Germany, Italy's ruling party, part of the right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists Group (ECR) emerged as the largest party, winning 24 of Italy's 76 seats.
While the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe ended during 2023, its shockwaves have continued to reverberate due to the increased poverty and social hardship it caused. Europe went through an acute inflationary episode in the wake of the pandemic which caused real wages to fall at their fastest rates in decades, meaning that low earners across Europe began to struggle to afford everyday necessities. On top of this came Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which resulted in EU countries boycotting energy imports from Russia and supplying huge amounts of military and financial aid to Ukraine. Voters have also felt the pressure on public services and housing markets due to increased migration flows from the Russia-Ukraine war, as well as other conflicts.
These crises have converged into a 'perfect storm' which is serving to boost the fortunes of the far-right, who in many cases blame migrants, as well as the EU's support for Ukraine and sanctions on Russia for the current issues faced by member states. There has also been increasing backlash towards the EU's climate agenda, which seeks to reduce emissions to 55 percent of their 1990 level by the year 2030. Rural voters and farmers are particularly incensed by plans to increase fuel duty on motor vehicles and to structure subsidies for agriculture to promote the green transition. While these issues have been capitalized on by the right and far-right, and damaged the current largest parties in parliament (EPP, S&D, Renew Europe), there has also been room for the left to galvanize support for its policies focused on poverty and social exclusion.
Likely outcomes of a rightward shift in the policies of the EU could include restrictions on migration and the free movement of people, less support for Ukraine in its war against Russia, a slowing down of the process of EU enlargement, and a reduction of the EU's ambitious climate commitments. These shifts are unlikely to come about from a representative of the right-wing groups taking one of the EU's top jobs - the presidents of the commission, the parliament, or the council, nor the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy - but are instead likely to result from the other groups in the parliament moving closer to the positions of the ECR and I&D. While the right's success in this years European elections could mark a turning point in the development of the EU, ultimately their ability to influence European policy will depend on the outcome of upcoming national elections, with right wing parties being increasingly popular in Germany and France, while the right have recently come first in elections in the Netherlands and Italy.
Issues in the 2024 elections: the cost of living crisis, war, migration, climate change
The core issues which the election were contested on include migration, the cost of living crisis experienced in many European countries, the EU's response to Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine, the ambitious climate agenda of EU institutions, as well as the future of European integration and the expansion of the EU in Eastern and South-Eastern Europe.While the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe ended during 2023, its shockwaves have continued to reverberate due to the increased poverty and social hardship it caused. Europe went through an acute inflationary episode in the wake of the pandemic which caused real wages to fall at their fastest rates in decades, meaning that low earners across Europe began to struggle to afford everyday necessities. On top of this came Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which resulted in EU countries boycotting energy imports from Russia and supplying huge amounts of military and financial aid to Ukraine. Voters have also felt the pressure on public services and housing markets due to increased migration flows from the Russia-Ukraine war, as well as other conflicts.
These crises have converged into a 'perfect storm' which is serving to boost the fortunes of the far-right, who in many cases blame migrants, as well as the EU's support for Ukraine and sanctions on Russia for the current issues faced by member states. There has also been increasing backlash towards the EU's climate agenda, which seeks to reduce emissions to 55 percent of their 1990 level by the year 2030. Rural voters and farmers are particularly incensed by plans to increase fuel duty on motor vehicles and to structure subsidies for agriculture to promote the green transition. While these issues have been capitalized on by the right and far-right, and damaged the current largest parties in parliament (EPP, S&D, Renew Europe), there has also been room for the left to galvanize support for its policies focused on poverty and social exclusion.
How would a shift to the right in the European elections affect EU policy?
The rise of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group and the Identity & Democracy group in the European Parliament poses a challenge to the current status quo of the EU. These groups are comprised of eurosceptic parties, whether they are hard eurosceptics who want their country to leave the EU outright, or soft eurosceptics who are opposed to European integration in its current form, but do not want to leave the EU. This is the fundamental dividing line between the groups in the European Parliament, as all of the mainstream centrist and left-wing parties - the EPP, S&D, Renew Europe, and the Greens - are overwhelmingly pro-EU groups, while the smaller Left Group is divided between eurosceptic and pro-EU member parties.Likely outcomes of a rightward shift in the policies of the EU could include restrictions on migration and the free movement of people, less support for Ukraine in its war against Russia, a slowing down of the process of EU enlargement, and a reduction of the EU's ambitious climate commitments. These shifts are unlikely to come about from a representative of the right-wing groups taking one of the EU's top jobs - the presidents of the commission, the parliament, or the council, nor the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy - but are instead likely to result from the other groups in the parliament moving closer to the positions of the ECR and I&D. While the right's success in this years European elections could mark a turning point in the development of the EU, ultimately their ability to influence European policy will depend on the outcome of upcoming national elections, with right wing parties being increasingly popular in Germany and France, while the right have recently come first in elections in the Netherlands and Italy.
