Erick Burgueño Salas
Research expert covering climate change and the water industry
Emissions in Mexico - statistics & facts
As one of the main developing countries, and ranked among the largest economies in the world, Mexico plays a crucial role in the fight against climate change. The country's carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions were estimated at some 400 million metric tons in 2021, ranking as the 15th largest in the world. Although Mexico's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have seen some decline since 2016, a lot more action will be needed to stay on track to reach its Paris Agreement targets.
In terms of activities, the energy sector is the primary GHG emitter in Mexico, with more than two-thirds of the emissions in 2019, mainly from fuel combustion activities. Emissions from burning fossil fuels in Mexico have followed a downward trend since 2016. Energy production and transportation are the main contributors to fuel combustion emissions in Mexico. Meanwhile, the industrial sector was the third-largest GHG emitter in Mexico, ranking behind agriculture and land use (AFOLU) and accounting for roughly ten percent of total emissions.
Mexico submitted its updated NDC during COP27 in November 2022, including an unconditional emissions reduction target of up to 35 percent in 2030, compared to levels on a business-as-usual scenario. If this scenario is achieved, Mexico’s GHG emissions are forecast at some 600 MtCO₂e in 2030. The Mexican NDC update also includes a conditional scenario to reduce up to 40 percent of emissions by that same year. As the name implies, the target is conditioned to substantial international support. The investment needed to achieve the conditional target is forecast at approximately 253.5 billion U.S. dollars. While the new targets are an improvement from the original NDC of 2016, the update does not mention a net-zero target nor any long-term compromise, and it also excludes the target to peak emissions in 2026.
The main sources of GHG emissions in Mexico
Carbon dioxide (CO₂) is the most emitted greenhouse gas in Mexico. In 2019, almost 296 million metric tons of CO₂ were emitted, representing over half of the total GHG balance. CO₂ is emitted primarily by burning fossil fuels and can remain in the atmosphere for thousands of years, absorbing and radiating heat and contributing to global warming. Methane (CH₄) is Mexico’s second most emitted GHG, with around one-third of emissions in 2019. CH₄ emissions originate mainly from landfills, livestock, and other agricultural practices. While this gas remains in the atmosphere for considerably less time than CO₂, it is way more potent in trapping heat. In 2021, Mexico was the tenth-largest emitter of CH₄ in the world.In terms of activities, the energy sector is the primary GHG emitter in Mexico, with more than two-thirds of the emissions in 2019, mainly from fuel combustion activities. Emissions from burning fossil fuels in Mexico have followed a downward trend since 2016. Energy production and transportation are the main contributors to fuel combustion emissions in Mexico. Meanwhile, the industrial sector was the third-largest GHG emitter in Mexico, ranking behind agriculture and land use (AFOLU) and accounting for roughly ten percent of total emissions.
New NDC for Mexico
As a signatory of the Paris Agreement in 2015, Mexico pledged to peak its GHG emissions as soon as possible to limit the global average temperature increase to 1.5 degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The Agreement calls for Parties to submit their best efforts to achieve the target through Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).Mexico submitted its updated NDC during COP27 in November 2022, including an unconditional emissions reduction target of up to 35 percent in 2030, compared to levels on a business-as-usual scenario. If this scenario is achieved, Mexico’s GHG emissions are forecast at some 600 MtCO₂e in 2030. The Mexican NDC update also includes a conditional scenario to reduce up to 40 percent of emissions by that same year. As the name implies, the target is conditioned to substantial international support. The investment needed to achieve the conditional target is forecast at approximately 253.5 billion U.S. dollars. While the new targets are an improvement from the original NDC of 2016, the update does not mention a net-zero target nor any long-term compromise, and it also excludes the target to peak emissions in 2026.
