Polycrisis - statistics & facts

The idea of a polycrisis has been popularized since the COVID-19 pandemic by the economic historian Adam Tooze, who has drawn on the work of scholars who looked at the EU's decade of overlapping crises in the 2010s, as well as earth systems scientists who have promoted the idea that we now live in an "anthropocene", whereby human behavior can indelibly upset the earth's natural processes and ecosystems. The idea of a polycrisis is not without critics, as some commentators have labelled it as a vague buzzword, or even overly alarmist. Critics have highlighted that eras where multiple crises exist alongside each other are not uncommon and that the extent to which these crises reinforce each other is overstated. Nevertheless, it has been seen as a useful idea in framing the existential risks which have emerged in our twenty-first century globalized, interdependent world. The World Economic Forum, a yearly meeting each January of world leaders from politics, business, and civil society in Davos, Switzerland, named the polycrisis their word of the year for 2023's meeting.

The Anthropocene: human impact on a changing climate

Since the middle of the 20th century, human societies have been swept up in a 'great acceleration' in the growth of resource use, emissions of greenhouse gases, and the loss of biodiversity and natural ecosystems. Earth systems scientists have now suggested that human activity has altered the environment in such a way that we have entered a new geological era, called the 'anthropocene' (the prefix anthro- signifying human impact, contrasted with the previous era of the Holocene). The emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other gases such as methane are causing an increase in average global air and sea temperatures, causing sea levels to rise, increasing the number of weather-related catastrophes, and destabilizing natural ecosystems which are relied on by both humans and animals. At the same time, the number of plant and animal species across the globe has been reduced dramatically by both the human destruction of natural habitats and the emergence of 'monocultures' in agriculture, and humans' management of nature.

Human-caused climate change is the overarching issue of the 21st century, and dealing with its impacts will require the rethinking of a myriad of processes which are currently in place in human societies. The background to the polycrisis is that solutions to any individual crisis - whether economic, geopolitical, technological, or medical - must be holistic, in that they take into account both the impact on the environment and other crises. This has particularly been emphasized in discussion of the international policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic, as the economic stimulus packages put in place by many governments are likely to have boosted CO2 emissions, further contributing to the climate crisis. Climate change is likely to cause increasing disruption in countries across the globe over the coming century, however, as poorer developing countries in equatorial regions are the most vulnerable to increasing sea levels and temperatures, the burden of dealing with the crises is likely to fall on those least capable of adapting. Already this may be reflected in increasing numbers of refugees and internally displaced persons, with the UN warning of future 'climate refugee' crises.

Economic crises: the end of globalization?

Since the global financial crisis and subsequent global recession of 2008-2009, the world economy has been dealing with a series of severe challenges to stability and progress. The era of 'easy money', whereby central banks across the globe lowered interest rates close to zero in the aftermath of the financial crisis in an effort to stimulate the global economy, came to an end in 2021 with the reemergence of inflation. Some commentators have pointed out that many large companies and governments became overly leveraged with debt in the period of low interest rates, and that an era of higher interest rates could spell problems of debt defaults and restructuring. Many in developing nations who have borrowed in U.S. dollars witnessed their domestic currency depreciate against the dollar, making it more difficult to service their debt.

Issues of global inflation and debt have arisen at an inopportune time as the global economy, which had been becoming more integrated since at least the 1980s, has begun to fracture into smaller blocs. China, the world's second largest economy, is set to catch up with the United States over the coming decades. While the Chinese economy had been previously well integrated with global supply chains, many western countries have now promoted ideas of "friendshoring", whereby supply chains and critical technologies would only be shared among liberal democratic partner countries. At the same time, in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the ability of western powers to impose financial and trade sanctions, as well as cutting off access to foreign currency reserves, has made many authoritarian countries more skeptical toward becoming integrated into the global financial system centered in New York and London.

Health crises: living with sickness in the 21^st century

The COVID-19 pandemic was a wake-up call in many countries for their lack of preparedness for public health crises. Not only did it demonstrate the increased risk of diseases spreading quickly across a globalized and interconnected world, but it showed how human intervention into the natural world can create new health risks, such as zoonotic diseases (transmitted from animals to humans) like the coronavirus. Additionally, the way in which countries and regions responded to the health crisis was shaped by political and economic considerations, causing further division in an increasingly fractured global landscape. The development and roll-out of vaccines to deal with the coronavirus is a key example, as western-aligned countries competed with China and Russia to manufacture vaccines quickly, while much of the developing world was neglected in the process.

Over the coming century the impact of climate change is likely to further contribute to human health crises, whether through the increased likelihood of pandemics, negative impacts on food production and human nutrition, or through the effects of extreme weather events. The economic effects of these interlinked crises may have negative impacts on the poorest in wealthier countries, who were hit by a cost of living crisis when inflation soared in 2022 and 2023, as well as hitting the world's poorest people, who are at an increased risk of famine and disease. The World Health Orgnization (WHO) has called for increased international cooperation in dealing with these global health risks, however, tensions between the world's leading powers are likely to complicate this process. The rapid development of medical technologies in the 21st century, such as the success of the COVID-19 vaccines, shows how health crises can be dealt with if cooperation is secured and other risks of the polycrisis are accounted for.

Geopolitical crises: a new cold war?

Francis Fukuyama, an American political scientist, famously wrote that the 1990s represented the "end of history", with the global triumph of free-market capitalism and liberal democracy representing the apex of human social development. The state of global geopolitics in the 2020s throws serious doubt on this assertion, with the rise of China as a global economic and military superpower upsetting the idea of a stable United States-led world order. Many political analysts now believe that the world is heading toward a multipolar order, with power centers in Washington D.C. and Beijing, but also in Moscow, Brussels, London, Riyadh, Berlin, and New Delhi, different from the bipolar geopolitical rivalry between the U.S. and Soviet Union in the 20th century.

This has serious implications for global political stability, as all sides are vying for influence in strategic regions, such as with China's 'Belt and Road initiative', which aims to increase its global influence in Asia, Europe, and Africa, for instance by funding large-scale infrastructure projects. The U.S., on the other hand, has doubled down on its support of its allies in East Asia, with tensions between the two superpowers predicted to peak due to the disputed status of Taiwan. The Russian invasion of Ukraine also shows the possible perils of a 'multipolar' world, as Russian President Putin seeks to expand his country's sphere of influence in Eastern Europe. Additionally, the Hamas terrorist attack against Israel in October 2023 and the subsequent wars in Gaza and Lebanon have caused tremendous human suffering and further geopolitical instability. On the other hand, many countries in the global South see opportunities in this new environment to pursue alternative development strategies to those preferred by western-led international economic institutions such as the IMF and World Bank.

Reasons to remain positive

While the prognosis of scholars analyzing the polycrisis can make for quite difficult reading, there may also be reasons to be positive about the outlook for human societies in the coming century. The emergence of ideas such as the polycrisis or the anthropocene shows the ability of humans to perceive risks and to act in order to try to address them. The signs of moving toward a clean energy transition have begun to show in the early 2020s, and this is likely to gain pace over the decade as many governments aim to keep to their net zero emissions pledges. Technological advancement may also help to overcome challenges in dealing with crises, such as the creation of new 'green' fuels, more efficient energy storage method, and carbon capture technologies. Nevertheless, further investments and emissions reductions are required to avoid the worst effects of climate change.

Additionally, focusing only on crises can obscure positive global trends which have already emerged over the past century. For instance, the rate of absolute global poverty has declined dramatically over the 20th century, with the share of the world's population living on less than 2.15 U.S. dollars per day declining from almost 40 percent in 1990 to less than 10 percent today. Global life expectancy is projected to increase in all regions across the globe for both men and women by 2050.