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The impact on European Union member states' GDP growth from the NextGenerationEU economic stimulus is set to diverge between the different states. States which will receive a relatively large package when compared with their GDP, such as Greece, Bulgaria, and Croatia, will experience large increases in GDP growth, mostly caused by the direct effects of the stimulus.

On the other hand, countries such as Sweden, Denmark, and Ireland, who will receive a relatively small amount of funds compared to their overall GDP, will experience only small increases in GDP growth of less than 0.5 percent. For these countries which will receive smaller packages, the majority of their additional growth will be as a result of spillovers from other countries' investments.

Forecasted additional Gross Donestic Product growth for European Union member states due to the NextGenerationEU economic stimulus in 2026 (in percentage terms)

Characteristic	Baseline growth	Spillover
Greece	3%	0.3%
Bulgaria	2.4%	0.6%
Croatia	2.4%	0.5%
Romania	2.7%	0.2%
Italy	2.3%	0.2%
Portugal	2%	0.4%
Slovakia	1.5%	0.6%
Spain	1.8%	0.3%
Latvia	1.5%	0.5%
Poland	1.6%	0.2%
Cyprus	1.3%	0.5%
Slovenia	1%	0.6%
Hungary	1.2%	0.4%
Lithuania	1.1%	0.5%
Estonia	0.8%	0.5%
Czechia	0.9%	0.3%
Malta	0.7%	0.4%
Belgium	0.4%	0.5%
France	0.5%	0.3%
Luxembourg	0.1%	0.7%
Germany	0.3%	0.4%
Austria	0.2%	0.5%
Netherlands	0.2%	0.4%
Finland	0.2%	0.4%
Ireland	0.1%	0.4%
Denmark	0.1%	0.4%
Sweden	0.2%	0.1%

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Release date

July 2021

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Region

Europe, EU

Survey time period

2026

Supplementary notes

This forecast was calculated by the authors using a scenario in which each member state spends its share of NGEU funds equally across the years 2021-2026, and in which economic productivity remains high.

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