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Review
. 2022 Aug 15;377(1857):20210378.
doi: 10.1098/rstb.2021.0378. Epub 2022 Jun 27.

Circling the drain: the extinction crisis and the future of humanity

Rodolfo Dirzo  1 , Gerardo Ceballos  2 , Paul R Ehrlich  1
Affiliations
Review

Circling the drain: the extinction crisis and the future of humanity

Rodolfo Dirzo et al. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. .

Abstract

Humanity has triggered the sixth mass extinction episode since the beginning of the Phanerozoic. The complexity of this extinction crisis is centred on the intersection of two complex adaptive systems: human culture and ecosystem functioning, although the significance of this intersection is not properly appreciated. Human beings are part of biodiversity and elements in a global ecosystem. Civilization, and perhaps even the fate of our species, is utterly dependent on that ecosystem's proper functioning, which society is increasingly degrading. The crisis seems rooted in three factors. First, relatively few people globally are aware of its existence. Second, most people who are, and even many scientists, assume incorrectly that the problem is primarily one of the disappearance of species, when it is the existential threat of myriad population extinctions. Third, while concerned scientists know there are many individual and collective steps that must be taken to slow population extinction rates, some are not willing to advocate the one fundamental, necessary, 'simple' cure, that is, reducing the scale of the human enterprise. We argue that compassionate shrinkage of the human population by further encouraging lower birth rates while reducing both inequity and aggregate wasteful consumption-that is, an end to growthmania-will be required. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological complexity and the biosphere: the next 30 years'.

Keywords: among-driver synergies; complex adaptive systems; human enterprise; mass extinctions; population loss.

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Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
The spatio-temporal dynamics of population extinctions leading to range contraction and ultimately global species extinction. (a) This depicts how species are composed of mosaics of multiple locally viable populations, here considered with a hypothetical local abundance of N > 50 individuals (circle clusters in different shades of blue) along their distribution range, and the proximate drivers of impact. (b) This illustrates six stages of the extinction dynamics, starting with an unimpacted population mosaic (0), which undergoes human impact leading to local declines in abundance in some populations (stages 1 and 2), subsequently undergoing local population extinctions and range shrinkage (stage 3). Subsequent population extinctions and range contraction (stage 4) eventually lead to global species extinction (stage 5).
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