2014 United States Senate election in Montana
 | |||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||
 County results Daines: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Curtis: 50–60% 60–70% | |||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||
.jpg)
| Elections in Montana |
|---|
 |
The 2014 United States Senate election in Montana took place on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate from Montana, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
Democratic Senator Max Baucus, who had announced he would retire and not seek a seventh term, resigned in February 2014 in order to accept an appointment as United States Ambassador to China under President Barack Obama. Democrat John Walsh, the Lieutenant Governor of Montana, who was already running for Baucus' seat when Baucus was named to the ambassadorship, was appointed to replace Baucus by Governor Steve Bullock.[1]
Walsh won the Democratic primary on June 3 and ran for a first full term in office, but withdrew from the race on August 7, 2014, due to allegations that he had plagiarized a term paper while attending the Army War College.[2] Democrats selected Amanda Curtis, a state representative from Butte, to replace Walsh as the party's nominee at a convention in Helena on August 16.[3] Steve Daines, the incumbent U.S. Representative from Montana's at-large congressional district, easily won the Republican nomination.
Daines defeated Curtis 57.9% to 40.0%, while Libertarian Roger Roots won 2.2%. Daines and Arkansas' Tom Cotton became just the 18th and 19th U.S. House freshmen to win U.S. Senate races over the last 100 years, and just the third and fourth over the last 40 years.[4] Daines became the first Republican to win this Senate seat since 1907, as well as the first to ever be popularly elected to the seat.
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Dirk Adams, rancher, businessman and former business law professor[5]
- John Bohlinger, former Republican Lieutenant Governor of Montana[6][7][8]
- John Walsh, incumbent U.S. Senator, former Lieutenant Governor of Montana and former Adjutant General of the Montana National Guard[9][10]
Declined
[edit]- Max Baucus, former U.S. Senator[11]
- John Brueggeman, former Republican state senator[12]
- Steve Bullock, Governor of Montana[13]
- Shane Colton, attorney and former commissioner of the Montana Department of Fish, Wildlife and Parks[14]
- Amanda Curtis, state representative[15]
- Melinda Gopher, writer and candidate for Montana's at-large congressional district in 2010[16]
- Mike Halligan, executive director of the Dennis and Phyllis Washington Foundation and former state senator[14]
- Denise Juneau, Montana Superintendent of Public Instruction[17]
- Nancy Keenan, former president of NARAL Pro-Choice America and former Montana Superintendent of Public Instruction[18]
- John Lewis, former state director for Senator Max Baucus (ran for the U.S. House)[19]
- Monica Lindeen, Montana State Auditor[20]
- Linda McCulloch, Secretary of State of Montana and former state representative[21]
- Mike McGrath, Chief Justice of the Montana Supreme Court and former Attorney General of Montana[22]
- Brian Morris, Judge of the United States District Court for the District of Montana and former associate justice of the Montana Supreme Court[14]
- John Morrison, former Montana State Auditor and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2006[23]
- Stephanie Schriock, president of Emily's List and former chief of staff to Senator Jon Tester[24]
- Brian Schweitzer, former Governor of Montana[25]
- Kendall Van Dyk, state senator[14]
- Mike Wheat, Justice of the Montana Supreme Court (ran for re-election)[26]
- Carol Williams, former Majority Leader of the Montana Senate and nominee for Lieutenant Governor of Montana in 2000[27]
- Pat Williams, former U.S. Representative[27]
- Whitney Williams, former director of operations for Hillary Clinton[27]
- Franke Wilmer, state representative[28]
- Jonathan Windy Boy, state senator
Endorsements
[edit]John Walsh
Elected officials
- Max Baucus, former U.S. Senator (D-MT)[29]
- Steve Bullock, Governor of Montana[30]
- Jon Tester, U.S. Senator (D-MT)[31]
Organizations
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Walsh |
Dirk Adams |
John Bohlinger |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[33] | November 15–17, 2013 | 381 | ± 5% | 39% | 3% | 31% | — | 27% |
| Harper Polling[34] | January 20–22, 2014 | 519 | ± 4.3% | 23% | 2% | 23% | — | 52% |
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Max Baucus |
Brian Schweitzer |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[35] | June 16–19, 2011 | 333 | ± 5.4% | 34% | 51% | — | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling[36] | November 28–30, 2011 | 573 | ± 4.1% | 35% | 51% | — | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling[37] | April 26–29, 2012 | 332 | ± 5.4% | 37% | 48% | — | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling[37] | September 10–11, 2012 | 201 | ± 5.4% | 36% | 40% | — | 24% |
| Public Policy Polling[38] | February 15–17, 2013 | 371 | ± 5.1% | 35% | 54% | — | 11% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Denise Juneau |
Brian Schweitzer |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harper Polling[39] | April 27–28, 2013 | 165 | ± 7.63% | 14% | 78% | — | 8% |
Results
[edit]
Walsh
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
Bohlinger
- 50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | John Walsh (incumbent) | 48,665 | 64.04% | |
| Democratic | John Bohlinger | 17,187 | 22.62% | |
| Democratic | Dirk Adams | 10,139 | 13.34% | |
| Total votes | 75,991 | 100.00% | ||
Democratic convention
[edit]Because Walsh withdrew, a nominating convention was held to pick a new nominee prior to August 20.[41] The state party called a convention for August 16, and voting delegates were members of the State Central Committee, specifically: "one chair and one vice chair from each existing county central committee; one state committeeman and one state committeewoman from each county central committee; all voting members of the State Party Executive Board; the president of each chartered organization of the Montana Democratic Party; Montana State House leadership, and Montana State Senate leaders, and all Democrats currently holding statewide or federal office."[42]
Candidates
[edit]Momentary buzz was created by a movement to draft actor Jeff Bridges for the nomination, with over 1,000 people signing a petition on Change.org and a Twitter account, DudeSenator, being created online. Bridges, who lives part-time and owns property in the Paradise Valley south of Livingston, Montana, declined the offer on the Howard Stern show, noting the disapproval of his wife. Other news outlets noted that he also was not registered to vote in Montana.[43][44]
Potential
[edit]- Dirk Adams, rancher, businessman and former business law professor[45]
- John Bohlinger, former Republican Lieutenant Governor of Montana[45]
- Amanda Curtis, state representative[46]
- Linda McCulloch, Secretary of State of Montana[47]
- Anna Whiting Sorrell, former director of the state Department of Health and Human Services and former state director of the Indian Health Services[48]
Withdrew
[edit]- Franke Wilmer, state representative[46][49]
- David Wanzenried, state senator[46][50]
Declined
[edit]- Jeff Bridges, actor and part-time Montana resident[43]
- Steve Bullock, Governor of Montana[51]
- Denise Juneau, Montana Superintendent of Public Instruction[51]
- Nancy Keenan, former president of NARAL Pro-Choice America and former Montana Superintendent of Public Instruction[52]
- Monica Lindeen, Montana State Auditor[51]
- Stephanie Schriock, president of Emily's List and former chief of staff to Senator Jon Tester[52]
- Brian Schweitzer, former Governor of Montana[46]
- Carol Williams, former Majority Leader of the Montana Senate and nominee for Lieutenant Governor of Montana in 2000[51]
Endorsements
[edit]Amanda Curtis
Elected officials
- Steve Bullock, governor of Montana[53]
- Kirsten Gillibrand, junior U.S. senator from New York
- Denise Juneau, Montana State Superintendent of Public Instruction[53]
- Monica Lindeen, Montana Commissioner of Securities & Insurance[53]
- Linda McCulloch, Montana secretary of state[53]
- Angela McLean, lieutenant governor of Montana[53][54]
- Jon Tester, senior U.S. senator from Montana[55]
- John Walsh, junior U.S. senator from Montana[56]
- Mike Wheat, Montana Supreme Court Justice[57]
Organizations
- Democracy for America, political action committee
- EMILY's List, political action committee[58]
- International Association of Firefighters, labor union[59]
- Montana AFL–CIO, labor union[50]
- Montana Conservation Voters conservation movement organization[60]
- Montana Education Association-Montana Federation of Teachers, labor union[61]
- Montana Laborers' International Union of North America, labor union[62]
- Montana Native Vote,[63] Native American rights organization[64]
- Montana Sportsmen Alliance[65] sportsmen and conservation organization[66]
- Montana State Building and Construction Trades Council, trade union[67]
- Montana Stonewall Democrats, LGBT rights group affiliated with the Democratic Party[68]
- NARAL Pro-Choice America, reproductive rights organization[69]
- National Organization for Women, feminist organization[70]
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Amanda Curtis | 82 | 64.0% | |
| Democratic | Dirk Adams | 46 | 36.0% | |
| Total votes | 128 | 100.0% | ||
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Susan Cundiff[72]
- Steve Daines, U.S. Representative and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2008[73][74]
- Champ Edmunds, state representative[75]
Withdrew
[edit]- David Leaser, air traffic manager at Glacier Park International Airport[76][77]
- Corey Stapleton, former state senator and candidate for governor in 2012 (running for MT-AL)[78]
Declined
[edit]- Chuck Baldwin, Baptist pastor, radio host, Constitution Party nominee for vice president in 2004 and for President in 2008[79]
- John Bohlinger, former Lieutenant Governor of Montana (ran as a Democrat)[6]
- Tim Fox, Attorney General of Montana[80]
- Rick Hill, former U.S. Representative and nominee for governor in 2012[81]
- Krayton Kerns, state representative[82]
- Marc Racicot, former Governor of Montana[83]
- Denny Rehberg, former U.S. Representative, former lieutenant governor and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 1996 and 2012[84]
- Scott Reichner, state representative (ran for the state senate)[85]
- Matthew Rosendale, state senator (ran for the U.S. House)[86]
- Jon Sonju, state senator and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2012[85]
- Larry R. Williams, author, commodity trader and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 1978 and 1982[87]
- Ryan Zinke, former state senator and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2012 (ran for the U.S. House)[88]
Endorsements
[edit]Steve Daines
Elected officials
- Rick Santorum, former U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania and candidate for President of the United States in 2012[89]
Organizations
- Citizens Against Government Waste Political Action Committee (CCAGW PAC)[90]
- Gun Owners of America[91]
- Tea Party Express[92]
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Steve Daines |
Champ Edmunds |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[33] | November 15–17, 2013 | 469 | ± 4.5% | 66% | 7% | 27% |
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Steve Daines |
Champ Edmunds |
Marc Racicot |
Corey Stapleton |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harper Polling[39] | April 27–28, 2013 | 472 | ± 4.51% | 26% | 3% | 42% | 6% | 22% |
| Public Policy Polling[93] | June 21–23, 2013 | 340 | ± 5.3% | 28% | 5% | 47% | 5% | 14% |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Steve Daines | 110,565 | 83.37% | |
| Republican | Susan Cundiff | 11,909 | 8.98% | |
| Republican | Champ Edmunds | 10,151 | 7.65% | |
| Total votes | 132,625 | 100.00% | ||
Libertarian nomination
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Roger Roots, nominee for Secretary of State of Montana in 2012[72]
Independents
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declined
[edit]- John Bohlinger, former Lieutenant Governor of Montana (ran as a Democrat)[6]
- Sam Rankin, real estate broker (did not qualify)[94]
General election
[edit]Debates
[edit]- Complete video of debate, October 20, 2014
Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[95] | Solid R (flip) | November 3, 2014 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[96] | Safe R (flip) | November 3, 2014 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[97] | Safe R (flip) | November 3, 2014 |
| Real Clear Politics[98] | Safe R (flip) | November 3, 2014 |
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Steve Daines (R) |
Amanda Curtis (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports[99] | August 18–19, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 55% | 35% | 2% | 8% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[100] | August 18 – September 2, 2014 | 684 | ± 5% | 53% | 35% | 1% | 11% |
| Gravis Marketing[101] | September 29–30, 2014 | 535 | ± 4% | 54% | 41% | — | 5% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[102] | September 20 – October 1, 2014 | 549 | ± 5% | 55% | 34% | 0% | 10% |
| The MSU-Billings Poll[103] | October 6–11, 2014 | 410 | ± 5% | 47% | 31% | 2%[104] | 21% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[102] | October 16–23, 2014 | 497 | ± 6% | 56% | 38% | 0% | 6% |
| Gravis Marketing[105] | October 23–24, 2014 | 604 | ± 4% | 53% | 39% | — | 8% |
Hypothetical polling
With Adams
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Dirk Adams (D) |
Steve Daines (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harper Polling[34] | January 20–22, 2014 | 519 | ± 4.3% | 20% | 44% | — | 36% |
with Baucus
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Max Baucus (D) |
Steve Daines (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[38] | February 15–17, 2013 | 1,011 | ± 3.1% | 44% | 49% | — | 7% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Max Baucus (D) |
Champ Edmunds (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[38] | February 15–17, 2013 | 1,011 | ± 3.1% | 47% | 37% | — | 16% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Max Baucus (D) |
Tim Fox (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[38] | February 15–17, 2013 | 1,011 | ± 3.1% | 46% | 43% | — | 11% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Max Baucus (D) |
Marc Racicot (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[38] | February 15–17, 2013 | 1,011 | ± 3.1% | 42% | 47% | — | 11% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Max Baucus (D) |
Corey Stapleton (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[38] | February 15–17, 2013 | 1,011 | ± 3.1% | 45% | 38% | — | 16% |
With Bohlinger
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Bohlinger (D) |
Steve Daines (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[33] | November 15–17, 2013 | 952 | ± 3.2% | 36% | 51% | — | 13% |
| Harper Polling[34] | January 20–22, 2014 | 519 | ± 4.3% | 32% | 43% | — | 25% |
| Harper Polling[106] | April 7–8, 2014 | 604 | ± 4.3% | 33% | 44% | — | 23% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Bohlinger (D) |
Champ Edmunds (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[33] | November 15–17, 2013 | 952 | ± 3.2% | 37% | 39% | — | 24% |
With Juneau
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Denise Juneau (D) |
Steve Daines (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[93] | June 21–23, 2013 | 807 | ± 3.4% | 38% | 48% | — | 13% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Denise Juneau (D) |
Champ Edmunds (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[93] | June 21–23, 2013 | 807 | ± 3.4% | 41% | 34% | — | 25% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Denise Juneau (D) |
Marc Racicot (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[93] | June 21–23, 2013 | 807 | ± 3.4% | 37% | 52% | — | 11% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Denise Juneau (D) |
Corey Stapleton (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[93] | June 21–23, 2013 | 807 | ± 3.4% | 42% | 38% | — | 21% |
With Keenan
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Nancy Keenan (D) |
Steve Daines (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[38] | February 15–17, 2013 | 1,011 | ± 3.1% | 39% | 49% | — | 12% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Nancy Keenan (D) |
Champ Edmunds (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[38] | February 15–17, 2013 | 1,011 | ± 3.1% | 41% | 36% | — | 23% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Nancy Keenan (D) |
Tim Fox (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[38] | February 15–17, 2013 | 1,011 | ± 3.1% | 40% | 45% | — | 15% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Nancy Keenan (D) |
Marc Racicot (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[38] | February 15–17, 2013 | 1,011 | ± 3.1% | 38% | 50% | — | 11% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Nancy Keenan (D) |
Corey Stapleton (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[38] | February 15–17, 2013 | 1,011 | ± 3.1% | 40% | 40% | — | 20% |
With Lindeen
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Monica Lindeen (D) |
Steve Daines (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[93] | June 21–23, 2013 | 807 | ± 3.4% | 37% | 49% | — | 14% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Monica Lindeen (D) |
Champ Edmunds (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[93] | June 21–23, 2013 | 807 | ± 3.4% | 39% | 34% | — | 26% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Monica Lindeen (D) |
Marc Racicot (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[93] | June 21–23, 2013 | 807 | ± 3.4% | 35% | 52% | — | 13% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Monica Lindeen (D) |
Corey Stapleton (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[93] | June 21–23, 2013 | 807 | ± 3.4% | 39% | 37% | — | 24% |
With Schweitzer
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Brian Schweitzer (D) |
Steve Daines (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[38] | February 15–17, 2013 | 1,011 | ± 3.1% | 48% | 45% | — | 7% |
| Harper Polling[39] | April 27–28, 2013 | 771 | ± 3.53% | 50% | 40% | — | 10% |
| Public Policy Polling[93] | June 21–23, 2013 | 807 | ± 3.4% | 48% | 45% | — | 7% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Brian Schweitzer (D) |
Champ Edmunds (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[38] | February 15–17, 2013 | 1,011 | ± 3.1% | 52% | 37% | — | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling[93] | June 21–23, 2013 | 807 | ± 3.4% | 52% | 37% | — | 11% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Brian Schweitzer (D) |
Tim Fox (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[38] | February 15–17, 2013 | 1,011 | ± 3.1% | 49% | 43% | — | 8% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Brian Schweitzer (D) |
Marc Racicot (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[38] | February 15–17, 2013 | 1,011 | ± 3.1% | 45% | 46% | — | 9% |
| Harper Polling[39] | April 27–28, 2013 | 771 | ± 3.53% | 47% | 43% | — | 10% |
| Public Policy Polling[93] | June 21–23, 2013 | 807 | ± 3.4% | 46% | 47% | — | 6% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Brian Schweitzer (D) |
Corey Stapleton (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[38] | February 15–17, 2013 | 1,011 | ± 3.1% | 49% | 39% | — | 13% |
| Public Policy Polling[93] | June 21–23, 2013 | 807 | ± 3.4% | 52% | 38% | — | 10% |
With Walsh
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Walsh (D) |
Steve Daines (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[33] | November 15–17, 2013 | 952 | ± 3.2% | 35% | 52% | — | 13% |
| Harper Polling[34] | January 20–22, 2014 | 519 | ± 4.3% | 29% | 43% | — | 28% |
| Rasmussen Reports[99] | March 17–18, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 37% | 51% | 4% | 9% |
| Magellan Strategies[107] | April 1–2, 2014 | 2,490 | ± 1.96% | 36% | 49% | 9%[108] | 6% |
| Harper Polling[106] | April 7–8, 2014 | 604 | ± 4.3% | 35% | 42% | — | 23% |
| Hickman Analytics[109] | April 24–30, 2014 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 37% | 49% | — | 14% |
| Vox Populi Polling[110] | May 21–22, 2014 | 806 | ± 3.5% | 33% | 56% | — | 11% |
| Magellan Strategies[111] | June 4–5, 2014 | 761 | ± 3.57% | 39% | 55% | — | 6% |
| Rasmussen Reports[99] | June 9–10, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 35% | 53% | 3% | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling[112] | July 17–18, 2014 | 574 | ± 4.1% | 39% | 46% | — | 15% |
| Gravis Marketing[113] | July 20–22, 2014 | 741 | ± 4% | 41% | 45% | 6%[104] | 7% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[114] | July 5–24, 2014 | 838 | ± 3.6% | 39% | 55% | 2% | 4% |
| Gravis Marketing[115] | July 24, 2014 | 781 | ± 3.5% | 38% | 45% | 9%[104] | 8% |
| Vox Populi Polling[116] | August 3–4, 2014 | 798 | ± 3.5% | 34% | 47% | — | 18% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Walsh (D) |
Champ Edmunds (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[33] | November 15–17, 2013 | 952 | ± 3.2% | 36% | 38% | — | 26% |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Steve Daines | 213,709 | 57.79% | +30.71% | |
| Democratic | Amanda Curtis | 148,184 | 40.07% | −32.85% | |
| Libertarian | Roger Roots | 7,933 | 2.14% | N/A | |
| Total votes | 369,826 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Republican gain from Democratic | |||||
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
[edit]- Beaverhead (largest city: Dillon)
- Broadwater (largest city: Townsend)
- Carbon (largest city: Red Lodge)
- Carter (largest city: Ekalaka)
- Cascade (largest city: Great Falls)
- Custer (largest city: Miles City)
- Daniels (largest city: Scobey)
- Fallon (largest city: Baker)
- Fergus (largest city: Lewistown)
- Flathead (largest city: Kalispell)
- Garfield (largest city: Jordan)
- Golden Valley (largest city: Ryegate)
- Granite (largest city: Philipsburg)
- Hill (largest city: Havre)
- Jefferson (largest city: Clancy)
- Judith Basin (largest city: Stanford)
- Lewis and Clark (largest city: Helena)
- Liberty (largest city: Chester)
- Lincoln (largest city: Libby)
- Madison (largest city: Ennis)
- McCone (largest city: Circle)
- Meagher (largest city: White Sulphur Springs)
- Musselshell (largest city: Roundup)
- Park (largest city: Livingston)
- Petroleum (largest city: Winnett)
- Phillips (largest city: Malta)
- Pondera (largest city: Conrad)
- Powder River (largest city: Broadus)
- Powell (largest city: Deer Lodge)
- Prairie (largest city: Terry)
- Ravalli (largest city: Hamilton)
- Richland (largest city: Sidney)
- Rosebud (largest city: Colstrip)
- Roosevelt (largest city: Wolf Point)
- Dawson (largest city: Glendive)
- Mineral (largest city: Superior)
- Sheridan (largest city: Plentywood)
- Gallatin (largest city: Bozeman)
- Lake (largest city: Polson)
- Chouteau (largest municipality: Fort Benton)
- Yellowstone (largest municipality: Billings)
- Sanders (largest city: Thompson Falls)
- Stillwater (largest city: Columbus)
- Sweet Grass (largest city: Big Timber)
- Teton (largest city: Choteau)
- Toole (largest city: Shelby)
- Treasure (largest city: Hysham)
- Valley (largest city: Glasgow)
- Wheatland (largest city: Harlowton)
- Wibaux (largest city: Wibaux)
See also
[edit]- 2014 United States House of Representatives election in Montana
- 2014 United States Senate elections
- 2014 United States elections
Notes
[edit]- ^ Replaced John Walsh.
- ^ In February 2014, Walsh was appointed by Governor Steve Bullock to fill the vacancy caused by the resignation of Senator Max Baucus, who had appointed U.S. Ambassador to China.
References
[edit]- ^ Camia, Catalina (February 7, 2014). "Montana gov taps John Walsh to replace Baucus in Senate". USA Today. Retrieved February 7, 2014.
- ^ Johnson, Charles (August 7, 2014). "Walsh drops out of U.S. Senate race". Billings Gazette. Retrieved August 7, 2014.
- ^ "Amanda Curtis wins Montana Democratic nomination to U.S. Senate". The Missoulian. August 16, 2014. Retrieved August 16, 2014.
- ^ Ostermeier, Eric (November 17, 2014). "Will a Freshman US Representative Win a Senate Seat in 2016?". Smart Politics.
- ^ Dennison, Mike (August 14, 2013). "Wilsall rancher/political unknown says he's running as Democrat for Baucus' Senate seat". Billings Gazette.
- ^ a b c "Former Lt. Gov. John Bohlinger says he's running for U.S. Senate". helenair.com. November 5, 2013.
- ^ "Bohlinger says he will probably drop out of U.S. Senate race". Missoulian. February 7, 2014. Retrieved March 10, 2014.
- ^ Dennison, Mike (March 8, 2014). "Bohlinger stays in US Senate race". Independent Record. Retrieved March 10, 2014.
- ^ Gorous, Matt (October 3, 2013). "Montana Democrats get Senate candidate". Yahoo News.
- ^ Johnson, Charles (August 7, 2014). "Walsh drops out of race for U.S. Senate". Missoulian. Retrieved August 12, 2014.
- ^ "Baucus to retire rather than seek re-election in 2014, strategists say". Washington Post. April 23, 2013.
- ^ Lundquist, Laura (August 26, 2013). "Senate candidate wants more Congressional oversight". Bozeman Daily Chronicle. Retrieved August 27, 2013.
- ^ Associated Press (May 17, 2013). "Bullock says 'absolutely not' to Senate race". missoulian.com.
- ^ a b c d "Growing number of Montana Democrats consider U.S. Senate run". missoulian.com. July 15, 2013.
- ^ "U.S. House race hinges on Daines' decision". Ravalli Republic. October 5, 2013. Retrieved November 6, 2013.
- ^ "After careful consideration, I decided to not..." FaceBook. March 17, 2014. Retrieved April 13, 2014.
- ^ Trygstad, Kyle (August 5, 2013). "Yet Another Democrat Declines Montana Senate Bid". Roll Call. Retrieved August 5, 2013.
- ^ "Nancy Keenan joins Hilltop Public Solutions". The Montana Standard. December 7, 2013. Retrieved December 16, 2013.
- ^ "Democrat John Lewis files to run for state's U.S. House seat". The Missoulian. August 26, 2013.
- ^ "Democrat Lindeen says no to run for U.S. Senate seat". The Missoulian. July 16, 2013.
- ^ "For Ambitious Montana Politicians, the Time Is Now". Roll Call. October 9, 2013.
- ^ Associated Press (May 5, 2013). "Montana Democratic women consider running for U.S. Senate". missoulian.com.
- ^ "Schweitzer decision prompts Dems to look at possibility of running". Billings Gazette. July 13, 2013.
- ^ REBECCA ELLIOTT (July 31, 2013). "EMILY's List chief won't run for Senate". Politico.Com. Retrieved August 7, 2014.
- ^ Associated Press (July 13, 2013). "Schweitzer won't run for U.S. Senate seat". missoulian.com.
- ^ "Wheat to run for another term as Montana Supreme Court justice". missoulian.com. January 10, 2014.
- ^ a b c Trygstad, Kyle. "Ex-Congressman Says No to Montana Senate Bid". Roll Call. Retrieved August 13, 2013.
- ^ "After spending the past several weeks speaking..." Facebook. September 9, 2013.
- ^ Hohmann, James (November 13, 2013). "Senate Dems give John Walsh a bear hug". Politico. Retrieved December 4, 2013.
- ^ "Bullock backs Walsh in Senate Democratic primary". Billings Gazette. November 15, 2013. Retrieved December 4, 2013.
- ^ "Tester endorses Walsh for U.S. Senate seat". KPAX-TV. November 6, 2013. Archived from the original on November 16, 2013. Retrieved December 4, 2013.
- ^ "VoteVets PAC Endorses Walsh for Senate". VoteVets.org. December 2, 2013. Archived from the original on December 5, 2013. Retrieved December 4, 2013.
- ^ a b c d e f Public Policy Polling
- ^ a b c d Harper Polling
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ a b Public Policy Polling
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p Public Policy Polling
- ^ a b c d Harper Polling
- ^ a b "2014 Statewide Montana Primary Election Canvas" (PDF). Montana Secretary of State. Archived from the original (PDF) on July 28, 2014. Retrieved July 23, 2014.
- ^ Dan Roberts (August 7, 2014). "Montana Senate candidate John Walsh pulls out of race after plagiarism scandal". The Guardian. Retrieved August 12, 2014.
- ^ "Montana Democratic Party Releases Process and Procedures for Special Nominating Convention". Montana Democratic Party. Archived from the original on August 13, 2014. Retrieved August 12, 2014.
- ^ a b Missoulian State Bureau (August 12, 2014). "'The Dude' won't abide calls for U.S. Senate run in Montana". Ravalli Republic. Retrieved August 12, 2014.
- ^ Lee, Kurtis (August 12, 2014). "With John Walsh's exit, Montana Democrats prepare to select new nominee". Los Angeles Times. Retrieved August 12, 2014.
- ^ a b "At least 3 seek to replace Walsh on Montana's U.S. Senate ballot". Ravallirepublic.com. Retrieved August 12, 2014.
- ^ a b c d "Schweitzer, Bullock won't replace Walsh in Senate race". Missoulian.com. August 8, 2014. Retrieved August 9, 2014.
- ^ Greg Strandberg (August 10, 2014). "Who is Montana's Linda McCulloch?". Big Sky Words.
- ^ "Butte's Curtis, other Democrats interested in Walsh seat". The Montana Standard. August 7, 2014. Retrieved August 10, 2014.
- ^ Saboe, Beth (August 11, 2014). "Franke Wilmer drops out of race for U.S. Senate". 7 KBZK. Archived from the original on August 12, 2014. Retrieved August 11, 2014.
- ^ a b "Wanzenried ends effort for Democratic nomination in U.S. Senate race". Billings Gazette. August 14, 2014. Retrieved August 14, 2014.
- ^ a b c d "Schweitzer, Bullock won't replace Walsh in Senate race". Ravalli Republic. August 8, 2014. Retrieved August 13, 2014.
- ^ a b "Walsh ends Senate campaign amid plagiarism scandal". The Hill. August 7, 2014. Retrieved August 13, 2014.
- ^ a b c d e "In Support of Amanda". Amanda for Montana. September 2, 2014. Archived from the original on September 5, 2014. Retrieved September 2, 2014.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: unfit URL (link) - ^ "Jon Tester, Lt. Gov. McLean speak about importance of labor at picnic". The Missoulian. September 1, 2014. Retrieved September 2, 2014.
- ^ "GOP, Dems react to new U.S. Senate candidate". NBC Montana. August 16, 2014. Archived from the original on August 18, 2014. Retrieved August 16, 2014.
- ^ "Senators reiterate support for Democratic upstart". Montana Standard. September 1, 2014. Retrieved September 2, 2014.
- ^ "Candidates crisscross state pushing voters to the polls". Billings Gazette. October 31, 2014. Retrieved November 1, 2014.
- ^ "EMILY's List Puts Amanda Curtis "On The List"". EMILY's List. September 18, 2014. Retrieved September 20, 2014.
- ^ "Amanda Curtis spoke at the Fire Fighters' convention this morning. She also received their endorsement". Amanda for Montana Facebook. September 24, 2014. Retrieved September 26, 2014.
- ^ "MCV Endorses Amanda Curtis for U.S. Senate". Montana Conservation Voters. September 19, 2014. Archived from the original on October 20, 2014. Retrieved September 19, 2014.
- ^ "Adams, Curtis, Wanzenried vying to replace Walsh in Senate race – and maybe Bohlinger". Billings Gazette. August 11, 2014. Retrieved August 12, 2014.
- ^ "Amanda Curtis endorsements- Laborers". Support Amanda Curtis for the U.S. Senate- Facebook. September 19, 2014. Retrieved September 19, 2014.
- ^ Montana Native Vote
- ^ "Amanda Curtis endorsements- Native Vote". Support Amanda Curtis for the U.S. Senate- Facebook. September 19, 2014. Retrieved September 19, 2014.
- ^ Montana Sportsmen Alliance
- ^ "We are proud to announce that Amanda has the full support of the Montana Sportsmen Alliance in her quest to be our next U.S. Senator". Support Amanda Curtis for the U.S. Senate- Facebook. August 14, 2014. Retrieved August 14, 2014.
- ^ "Senate candidate Curtis picks up left-leaning endorsements". Montana Standard. August 21, 2014. Retrieved August 21, 2014.
- ^ "We will proudly support Rep. Amanda Curtis tomorrow to be the Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate". Montana Stonewall Democrats- Facebook. August 14, 2014. Retrieved August 16, 2014.
- ^ "NARAL PRO-CHOICE AMERICA AND NARAL PRO-CHOICE MONTANA RELEASE A STATEMENT ON MONTANA DEMOCRATIC PARTY NOMINATION OF AMANDA CURTIS". NARAL. August 16, 2014. Archived from the original on August 19, 2014. Retrieved August 16, 2014.
- ^ "Amanda Curtis endorsements- NOW". Support Amanda Curtis for the U.S. Senate- Facebook. September 19, 2014. Retrieved September 19, 2014.
- ^ "Amanda Curtis wins Montana Democratic nomination to U.S. Senate". The Missoulian. Retrieved August 16, 2014.
- ^ a b Charles S. Johnson (March 10, 2014). "Missoula's Edmunds, Cundiff file for U.S. Senate race; Fellows runs for House". Missoulian. Retrieved March 12, 2014.
- ^ Taylor, Jessica (April 23, 2013). "Baucus retires, but a Schweitzer candidacy may be better for Dems". NBC News. Archived from the original on November 5, 2013. Retrieved April 23, 2013.
- ^ Raju, Manu (November 5, 2013). "Steve Daines to announce Senate bid". POLITICO. Retrieved November 5, 2013.
- ^ Trygstad, Kyle (February 27, 2013). "Montana: Baucus Gets Second GOP Challenger". Roll Call. Retrieved February 28, 2013.
- ^ "Kalispell man launches Senate bid". Daily Inter Lake. October 2, 2013. Retrieved October 7, 2013.
- ^ "Kalispell air-traffic manager drops US Senate bid". Independent Record. February 18, 2014. Retrieved March 10, 2014.
- ^ "Montana Senate Field Now Cleared for Daines | #MTSEN | At the Races". Atr.rollcall.com. September 3, 2013. Retrieved August 7, 2014.
- ^ Baldwin, Chuck (February 25, 2013). "Chuck Baldwin: Christians: It's Time to Vote With Your Feet". Independent Political Report. Retrieved April 23, 2013.
- ^ Sullivan, Sean (April 23, 2013). "All eyes on Brian Schweitzer in wake of Max Baucus retirement". The Fix. Retrieved November 4, 2013.
- ^ "GOP Rep. Steve Daines mulling Montana Senate bid once more". TheHill. June 23, 2014. Retrieved August 7, 2014.
- ^ "2014 FIELD SHAPING UP". Montana Cowgirl. July 16, 2013. Retrieved July 18, 2013.
- ^ "[1] Archived September 17, 2013, at archive.today"
- ^ "Rehberg will not run in 2014". MTN News. January 13, 2014. Archived from the original on January 15, 2014. Retrieved January 14, 2014.
- ^ a b "Formerly 'all in' House candidate now won't run". Billings Gazette. October 3, 2013.
- ^ Johnson, Charles S. (October 15, 2013). "Rosendale launches House race". Independent Record. Retrieved October 21, 2013.
- ^ Johnson, Charles S. (October 3, 2013). "Larry Williams running for Senate — unless Daines does". Billings Gazette. Retrieved October 7, 2013.
- ^ Lutey, Tom (October 21, 2013). "Whitefish's Zinke announces GOP candidacy for U.S. House". Missoulian. Retrieved October 21, 2013.
- ^ "Rick Santorum and Patriot Voices PAC Announce Endorsements in Four Key U.S. Senate Races". Patriot Voices. April 22, 2014. Retrieved April 25, 2014.[permanent dead link]
- ^ Booze, Alexandra (August 28, 2014). "CCAGW PAC Endorses Rep. Steve Daines for U.S. Senate". Businesswire.come. Retrieved October 26, 2014.
- ^ "The Race That Could Unseat Anti-Gun Harry Reid As Senate Majority Leader". AmmoLand. November 20, 2013. Retrieved December 7, 2013.
- ^ Jaffe, Alexandra (December 6, 2013). "Daines gets Tea Party backing in Senate bid". The Hill. Retrieved December 11, 2013.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m Public Policy Polling
- ^ Dennison, Mike (February 10, 2014). "Billings real estate broker seeks spot on ballot for Montana's U.S. Senate seat". Missoulian. Retrieved February 11, 2014.
- ^ "2014 Senate Race Ratings for November 3, 2014". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
- ^ "The Crystal Ball's Final 2014 Picks". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
- ^ "2014 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
- ^ "2014 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2014". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
- ^ a b c Rasmussen Reports
- ^ CBS News/NYT/YouGov
- ^ Gravis Marketing
- ^ a b CBS News/NYT/YouGov
- ^ The MSU-Billings Poll
- ^ a b c Roger Roots (L)
- ^ Gravis Marketing
- ^ a b Harper Polling
- ^ Magellan Strategies
- ^ Roger Roots (L) 4%, Other 5%
- ^ Hickman Analytics
- ^ Vox Populi Polling
- ^ Magellan Strategies
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ Gravis Marketing
- ^ CBS News/NYT/YouGov
- ^ Gravis Marketing
- ^ Vox Populi Polling
- ^ "2014 STATEWIDE GENERAL ELECTION CANVASS" (PDF). Montana Secretary of State. November 4, 2014. Retrieved January 3, 2018.
External links
[edit]